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Australia: CPI tracking further below SoMP forecasts-20260624
摩根大通· 2026-06-24 12:10
J P M O R G A N Economic Research 24 June 2026 Australia: CPI tracking further below SoMP forecasts May's monthly CPI reading was below our sub-consensus forecast at -0.7%m/m (JPM: -0.5%m/m, consensus: -0.4%m/m), or 4.0%oya. Trimmed mean was a firm +0.4% on the month, though, with two of three months in hand, the implied %3m/3m rate on core is still sticking at 0.8%q/q and gradually decelerating, with measures of breadth also well-capped. This is lower than the %m/m core prints from late 2025, despite what ...
May CPI: Core Strength-20260624
摩根士丹利· 2026-06-24 11:13
June 24, 2026 02:34 AM GMT Australia Macro+ | Asia Pacific M Update May CPI: Core Strength Key Takeaways Outlook and Implications: Overall, this print was softer at the headline level, but firmer beneath the surface. The fall in headline inflation was largely driven by lower fuel prices, while trimmed mean inflation rose and remains above the RBA's target band. Housing remains a key source of persistence, with electricity, construction costs and rents all contributing to the monthly core increase. More impo ...
G10 FX Daily Report - 23rd June2026. Tue Jun23 2026-20260623
摩根大通· 2026-06-23 17:10
市场动态 - 美元在持续的美联储鹰派情绪下难以直接上涨,市场对数据的关注度增加[1] - 拉加德的言论对欧元施加了压力,导致市场对7月加息的预期降至接近零[3] - 英镑因Streeting支持Burnham而上涨,市场对其未来政策的信心增强[4] 通胀与货币政策 - 加拿大CPI同比增长3.2%,高于预期的3.0%,但核心通胀保持稳定[11] - 日元在USDJPY的162水平附近引发市场关注,可能会采取行动以防止汇率突破该水平[7] - 瑞士法郎在中期内被认为表现不佳,继续持有短仓[8] 货币走势与市场预期 - 澳元和新西兰元的走势受到即将发布的通胀和就业数据的影响,短期内可能需要重新评估[8] - 挪威克朗与瑞典克朗的利率差接近历史高位,尽管能源价格下跌可能影响挪威克朗的表现[11]