(Bloomberg) — Technology stocks are rising so far, so fast that some investors are starting to position for the move to lose momentum. After advancing for five consecutive months, the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) Index has risen each day but one in September as investors bet on optimism around artificial intelligence and Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to keep technology stocks moving higher. A gauge of expected volatility in the index hasn’t budged in months. And on Wednesday, infrastructure software giant Oracl ...

Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) stock was last seen down 7.5% at $145.98 and heading for its sixth-straight daily drop. The shares have been tumbling since their August 12 record high of $190, and are now 25% below that level. Year-to-date, the equity is still up 89.5%. Options bears are chiming in on the selloff. So far today, 658,000 puts have been exchanged -- triple the intraday average put volume -- compared to 563,000 calls. The weekly 8/22 140-strike put is the most popular contract, with new ...

核心观点 - Adobe股票即将在6月12日公布财报，存在短期波动带来的交易机会 [1] - 历史数据显示Adobe财报后股价下跌概率较高，且跌幅较大 [3][6] - 通过买入价外2%的看跌期权，可以以有限风险捕捉潜在的高回报机会 [4][7] 历史表现分析 - 过去5年20次财报中，14次导致次日股价下跌，6次上涨 [6] - 上涨时的中位数涨幅仅为+3.9%，而下跌时的中位数跌幅达-7.4% [6] - 财报后股价反应呈现明显的负向偏差 [3] 期权交易策略 - 建议买入价外2%、1周后到期的看跌期权，上周五此类期权价格约为2.33美元 [7] - 若股价下跌5%（符合历史常态），期权价值可能增长5倍 [7] - 最大损失限定在2.50美元（持有至到期），可通过提前平仓进一步减少损失 [7] 风险回报特征 - 期权溢价已部分反映波动预期，小幅下跌可能不会带来显著收益 [9] - 潜在损失有限且已知，而历史数据显示上涨概率较低 [9] - 形成不对称押注结构：小额风险 vs 大额潜在回报 [9] 长期投资对比 - Trefis高质量投资组合自成立以来回报率>91%，跑赢标普500、道指和纳斯达克指数 [2] - 该组合包含30只股票，过去4年风险调整后收益优于基准指数 [11]