公司评级与目标价 - Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Ramsey El-Assal于1月27日首次覆盖PayPal，给予“中性”评级，目标价为60美元 [1] - Truist分析师Matthew Coad于1月20日将PayPal目标价从66美元下调至58美元，并维持“卖出”评级 [2] 公司业务与战略 - PayPal是一家全球性技术平台，为商户和消费者提供数字支付服务，运营着一个连接商户与消费者的规模化双边网络 [3] - 公司近期的战略举措已在其品牌支付、支付服务提供商和Venmo单元之间建立了一个更平衡、更具盈利性的增长引擎 [1] 财务与运营展望 - 尽管面临激烈的竞争压力，但公司的发展势头预计将在2026财年进一步推动交易量和收入增长加速 [1] - 分析师预计金融科技行业第四季度业绩稳健，但困难的同比比较可能会限制交易量方面的超预期表现 [2] - 尽管对行业到2026年的长期前景表示乐观，但有警告称部分公司管理层可能发布保守的2026年初步指引以重置市场预期 [3]

交易所动态与战略调整 - 币安宣布将其规模为10亿美元的SAFU基金储备从稳定币转换为比特币，计划在30天内完成兑换，并承诺在比特币价格波动导致基金市值低于8亿美元时补充比特币以恢复至10亿美元规模 [1] - 韩国第三大加密货币交易所Coinone正在挂牌出售，其大股东车名勋考虑出售部分股份，公司合计持股53.44%，美国Coinbase将访韩与其探讨股权投资与合作机会 [5] - 主要交易所如Bybit、Cryptocom、Kraken、OKX、MoonPay成为Tether新推出的合规美元稳定币USA₮的首批上线平台 [7] 稳定币与资产储备发展 - Tether已成为主权国家和银行之外最大的黄金储备方，持有超过140吨黄金，价值约240亿美元，这些黄金作为其黄金代币XAUT的1:1储备，并为USDT提供超额抵押缓冲 [1] - Tether正式推出面向美国市场的合规美元稳定币USA₮，该稳定币符合GENIUS Act联邦监管框架，由Anchorage Digital Bank发行，Cantor Fitzgerald担任储备资产托管方及主交易商 [6][7] 监管政策与合规进展 - 美国SEC主席表示支持投资者在401(k)退休账户中配置加密货币，当前首要任务是制定清晰、明智的监管规则以确保市场透明度和投资者保护 [2] - 美国SEC明确将代币化证券划分为发行人主导和第三方主导两类，并指出第三方主导的代币化证券可能需注册并适用更严格的证券型掉期监管规则 [3] - 英国政府指示银行及金融机构向符合监管要求的加密货币业务及客户提供服务，旨在减少“去银行化”现象，同时要求银行仍需履行反洗钱及反恐融资义务 [4] 市场采用与支付趋势 - PayPal调查显示，约40%的商户已接受加密货币支付，其中约四分之三表示相关销售额在过去一年有所增长，年收入超过5亿美元的大型企业中约50%已接入加密支付 [8] - 多数支付策略决策者预计，加密支付有望在未来5年内成为常见支付方式 [8] 市场结构与投资者行为 - Coinbase Institutional与Glassnode报告指出，比特币正进入更稳定、更具韧性的阶段，2025年四季度的下跌已清理过度杠杆，市场对连环清算的敏感度下降 [8] - 机构投资者当前更偏好期权对冲而非高杠杆期货头寸，链上数据显示长期持有者更多是再分配仓位而非被动抛售 [8] - 全球流动性指标短期仍对比特币形成支撑，但增速预计放缓，比特币价格或进入更慢的发现阶段，并与宏观环境联系更为紧密 [8] 行业融资与投资 - Robinhood投资加密货币交易平台Talos，其估值为15亿美元 [10] - 区块链基础设施公司Zerohash正洽谈以15亿美元估值融资2.5亿美元 [10] - Galaxy Digital旗下Galaxy Ventures领投Tenbin Labs 700万美元种子轮融资 [10] - 加密支付网络Mesh宣布完成7500万美元C轮融资 [10] - AetheriumX宣布完成800万美元战略融资 [10] - 链上金融应用Bleap完成600万美元种子轮融资 [10] - Andre Cronje主导的Flying Tulip追加融资7550万美元，代币估值10亿美元 [10] - Doppler母公司Whetstone Research完成900万美元种子轮融资 [10] 行业风险事件 - Clawbot创始人因公司名称被AI公司Anthropic要求更改，导致Solana和Base链上相关Meme代币价格暴跌，其本人遭到投资者骚扰，并严正声明自己永不参与任何加密项目 [7]

股价表现与市场环境 - 过去三个月 PayPal 股价大幅下跌 23.3% 主要受宏观经济不确定性、数字支付领域竞争加剧以及亚洲关税相关压力影响 [2] - 同期竞争对手 Visa 股价下跌 2.6% Mastercard 股价下跌 1.5% 跌幅远小于 PayPal [2] - 股价下跌后 PayPal 股票估值显得便宜 其未来12个月前瞻市盈率为 9.15倍 远低于 Zacks 金融交易服务行业平均的 19.57倍 也低于 Visa 的 24.46倍和 Mastercard 的 27.02倍 [14] 战略转型与业务拓展 - 公司正从单纯的支付公司向更广泛的商业平台转型 已向犹他州金融监管机构和联邦存款保险公司提交申请 计划建立 PayPal 银行 [5] - 推出 PayPal 广告管理器 帮助使用 PayPal 的小企业建立自己的零售媒体网络以创造额外收入流 并推出“PayPal 链接”功能 方便用户通过个性化一次性链接收发款项 [6] - 通过 PayPal World 平台整合主要支付系统和数字钱包 扩展其在传统支付之外的业务范围 [8] 智能商务与人工智能投资 - 公司投资于人工智能驱动的“智能商务” 自主 AI 代理帮助消费者发现、比较和购买产品 相关服务于 2025 年 10 月推出 [9] - 公司已同意收购多渠道协调平台 Cymbio 使品牌能在 Microsoft Copilot、Perplexity 等智能平台及其他电商渠道销售 [9] - 与 Microsoft 合作在 Copilot 中推出 Copilot Checkout 并与 OpenAI 合作在 ChatGPT 内实现无缝支付和智能商务体验 还与 Perplexity 合作在其 Pro 平台上启用智能商务 [9][10] 增长动力：Venmo 业务 - Venmo 是主要增长动力 在年轻、富裕且精通技术的用户中是转账首选 [11] - 2025 年第三季度 Venmo 收入同比增长超过 20% Venmo 借记卡月活跃账户增长超过 40% 使用 Venmo 支付的总支付额飙升约 40% [11] - Venmo 业务 2025 年全年收入（不含利息收入）预计将达到 17 亿美元 反映超过 20% 的增长 且增速较两年前加快了 10 个百分点 [11] 财务表现与运营挑战 - 2025 年第四季度 公司品牌结账业务预计增长将比前一季度低几个百分点 [12] - 管理层预计 2026 年运营费用增长将与交易边际美元增长同步（此前预期为一半） 这将导致交易边际美元和每股收益的增长较 2025 年放缓 [12] - 2025 年第三季度 在零售品类消费者支出谨慎的背景下 公司平均订单价值下降 当包含支付服务提供商交易时 支付交易量下降 5% 至 63 亿笔 交易损失同比增加 50% 主要因欺诈事件增加 [13] 盈利预测与市场观点 - 公司 2026 年全年盈利预测呈现负面趋势 过去一周 Zacks 共识预期每股收益下调 2 美分至 5.75 美元 [16] - 尽管公司正在进行转型并拥有诱人的估值 但在当前宏观经济不确定性和竞争加剧的环境下 其 Zacks 排名为 4 级（卖出） 反映了下行风险 [17][19]

This story was originally published on Payments Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Payments Dive newsletter. Embedded finance is poised to surge as multiple players integrate financial services, such as payment processing and lending, into a variety of new mobile applications, executives on a panel hosted by Cross River Bank said Thursday. “Embedded finance will explode in daily life experiences,” Adam Goller, head of fintech bank, said in leading a virtual discussion on ...

PayPal (PYPL) will announce its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 3, and the announcement comes at a time when investor sentiment around the stock remains cautious. While the company has continued to deliver profitable growth, drive monthly active customers, and increase engagement among existing users, its share price has been under pressure. Over the past three months, PYPL stock has fallen nearly 24%, significantly lagging the broader market and many of its peers. The significant decline in PayPal' ...

Analysts on Wall Street project that Paypal (PYPL) will announce quarterly earnings of $1.29 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 8.4% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $8.77 billion, increasing 4.8% from the same quarter last year.The current level reflects a downward revision of 2% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over t ...

It's been a tough road for PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) over the past several years. The fintech giant surged during the stock market bubble that followed the COVID-19 pandemic, but the stock has seemingly only gone lower since then. PayPal has indeed had its share of challenges in an increasingly competitive fintech industry. And yes, cheap stocks can go lower. Nobody wants to catch the proverbial falling knife. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the ...

PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) is one of the best inexpensive stocks to buy now. On January 20, Truist analyst Matthew Coad lowered the firm’s price target on PayPal to $58 from $66 with a Sell rating. This decision was made as part of a broader research note that previewed the Q4 2025 earnings in fintech. Truist anticipates solid quarterly results for the sector, though Coad cautioned that difficult year-over-year comparisons might make it harder for companies to significantly exceed volume expectatio ...

With a market cap of $51.9 billion, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is a global digital payments company that operates a large-scale, two-sided technology platform connecting merchants and consumers for online and in-person transactions. It offers a wide range of payment and financial solutions through brands such as PayPal, Venmo, Braintree, Xoom, and Zettle. The technology platform and digital payments company's shares have lagged behind the broader market over the past 52 weeks. PYPL stock has decreased ...

PayPal Holdings, Inc. ( PYPL ) has been a source of debate for some time now, being that it basically finds new lows every month. The reality is that the financial/payment industry has changed significantly, and PayPalI am a full-time equity analyst and the co-founder of Mina Vista Capital Management, a hedge fund that my business partner, William Hazen, and I started. I look for long-term investment opportunities with a focus on fundamentals. I’ve done extensive research on industries such as energy, techn ...