市场整体表现 - 道琼斯指数有望连续第五个季度录得正增长，标普500和纳斯达克指数在八个季度中有七个季度录得正增长 [1] 宏观经济背景 - 亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型显示当季经济增长率接近4%，经济学家预测增长率接近3% [2] - 宏观经济数据意外指数大幅走高，出现类似2023年的迷你版反弹，此前持续15个月出现正面宏观经济数据意外 [3][4] - 市场共识对经济衰退的预期并未实现，只是推迟了时间点 [3] 投资者仓位与盈利预期 - 基于基本面的投资者仓位仍接近中性，其历史仓位通常与盈利增长保持一致 [5] - 当前投资者仓位反映其对盈利增长预期仅为1%或2%，但上一季度实际盈利增长达到10% [6] - 市场预期本季度盈利增长将略有加速 [6] 关税政策影响分析 - 关税成本的一部分由世界其他地区承担，需考虑美元汇率因素后观察进口价格 [7] - 对美国公司而言，关税作为成本可获得20%的企业税率减免 [8] - 关税对标准普尔500指数成分股公司盈利的直接影响相对较小，总计影响约17个百分点，其中苹果公司占5个百分点，其他公司合计约12个百分点 [8][9] - 证据表明关税对通胀的直接影响已有一半发生 [10]

U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday following Monday’s advances. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.The indices dropped as the possibility of a government shutdown neared, with the lawmakers having until Wednesday at 12:01 a.m. ET to reach an agreement.Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance stated outside the White House that “I think we're headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won't do the right thing,” placing the blame on Democratic leaders for linking government funding to healthcare negotiat ...

The Russell 2000 index (i.e., the small-cap stock index) is up about 2.5% in the five days ending September 19. It’s not a surprise that this is coming during a time in which the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates. This cut does not matter much, but many are optimistic that it is the beginning of a deeper rate cut cycle in the next 12 months. That’s typically bullish for small-cap stocks that are frequently unprofitable and, in some cases, have little to no revenue. Companies like these that require deb ...

New office building in suburban Maryland, United States. Parking lot in front of the building with several cars. - See lightbox for moregettyThe Fed has finally cut rates, and if the “dot plot” is any indication, it won’t be the last. This is fuel for real estate investment trusts (REITs)—they thrive when borrowing costs fall and their fat dividends shine next to shrinking bond yields.Today we can lock in payouts between 6% and 13% from landlords set to surge as Powell’s long-awaited pivot plays out.Why do ...

Prices aren't rising so fast as to postpone rate cuts ...

Over the summer, many of the home builders started rallying in anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed. But now the Feds start cutting and the group keeps rolling over. So what's going on here.Didn't we want rate cuts to jolt the industry out of the doldrums. Well, let's look at what happened when some of the key home builders recently reported. First, we got Lenar, the Miami based developer that's become one of the largest home builders in the country.Lenar kicked these off last Thursday when they reported ...

US stocks fell on Thursday for the third session in a row as Wall Street weighed an unexpected drop in jobless claims and a sharp upgrade in GDP growth, developments that complicate the outlook for rate cuts amid uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.4%, and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost roughly 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also around 0.5%. Big Tech stocks took hits, with Oracle (ORCL) adding to recent losses and Tesla (TSLA) off over 4%. ...

A week after the Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts after a nine-month pause, stocks were reversing their uptrend with a three-day losing streak, leaving investors wondering whether the bull-market rally has run out of steam. ...

宏观经济数据 - 美国第二季度GDP增长3.8%，超出经济学家预期，主要由4月至6月期间进口减少以及强劲的消费者支出推动 [5][8] - 上周初请失业金人数低于预期 [5][8] - 强劲的经济数据降低了市场对美联储降息的预期，10月会议降息25个基点的概率从超过90%降至约85% [5][6] 股市表现 - 美股三大指数开盘走低，道琼斯指数下跌约310点（约0.6%），纳斯达克指数下跌近1%，标准普尔500指数下跌约0.6% [4] - 市场可能出现连续第三天下跌，此前曾连续三天创下历史新高 [4][5] - 10年期国债收益率上升约3个基点，30年期国债收益率亦走高，美元指数上涨约0.3%，过去5天内上涨近1% [6] 人工智能主题 - 英伟达和Alphabet等AI概念股出现获利了结，投资者寻找新的催化剂 [9] - 经纪公司Redburn Atlantic对Oracle给出卖出评级，分析师认为其股价可能下跌约43% [9] - 巴克莱银行将当前AI热潮与互联网泡沫时期对比，指出当前企业资本支出相对于销售额增长25%，而互联网泡沫时期为40% [24] - 巴克莱银行认为AI主题基础稳固，超大规模云计算公司现金流充裕、业务利润率较高，未来6至18个月不会脱轨 [25][26] - 有观点认为AI股票估值已反映乐观预期，市场水平与1999年末相似，建议投资者分散投资，关注估值更合理的标普500成分股及中小盘股 [27][28][29] 星巴克公司动态 - 星巴克宣布裁员900人，并关闭约100家门店（占其门店总数的约1%），作为其10亿美元重组计划的一部分 [10][13] - 截至上一季度，星巴克在美国市场同店销售额已连续六个季度下滑 [13] - 公司门店数量将从约18,800家减少至18,300家，战略重点转向投资于营造咖啡店文化、增加员工配置和工作时长，以提升消费者体验 [14][15][18] 消费者与市场情绪 - 尽管星巴克面临挑战，但整体消费者支出依然强劲，经济并未显示衰退迹象 [16][17] - 当前经济呈现分化态势，AI支出和高收入消费者支撑增长，但企业普遍面临利润率挤压、成本上升而难以转嫁的挑战 [21][22] - 零售投资者交易活跃度比去年高出约30%，保证金余额增加，期权使用增多，投资者账户余额处于历史高位 [31][32][36] 嘉信理财业务洞察 - 嘉信理财客户登录次数创纪录，达到约5亿次/季度，80%的日常操作通过数字渠道完成，但重大生活事件时仍倾向于线下咨询 [47][48] - 公司计划在2026年上半年推出现货加密货币交易服务，目前其客户持有全美20%的加密货币ETF资产 [52][53] - 新客户中有六分之一年龄在24岁以下，公司通过TikTok、Instagram、YouTube等社交媒体积极吸引年轻投资者 [56][57] - 公司强调长期导向和透明度，认为专注于服务客户最终会为股东带来良好回报 [60][63][64]

Wall Street traded lower on Wednesday, extending the previous day's risk-off mood sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks.At midday in New York, all major indexes were in the red: the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.6%.FCX is taking a hit from negative sentiment. Get the inside scoop here.Investors bristled at Powell's comments that further rate cuts are not a given, underscoring a data-dependent stance, while also calling equity markets "fairly h ...