January 8, 2026 12:52 PM GMT China Economics & FX Strategy | Asia Pacific Revising Up RMB, but Deflation Keeps Us Below Consensus We upgrade our CNY path on robust exports, with further upside in the near term amid a weaker dollar. Yet lingering deflation and a rebound in the dollar could pose headwinds in 2H, keeping our end-2026 USDCNY target below consensus. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Our refreshed RMB forecast New forecast Old forecast USDCNY (in reverse order) Official CFETS RMB Index-RS Indexed 31 Dec 2 ...