The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.19% at a 1-week low. The shutdown of the US government today is weighing on the dollar.  The dollar added to its losses today on weakness in the US labor market, following the unexpected contraction of the September ADP employment change for a second consecutive month.  The weak labor market news also boosted the chances of a Fed rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting to 100% in the swaps market, a negative factor for the dollar.  Losses in the dollar are li ...

美元指数表现及影响因素 - 美元指数(DXY00)今日下跌0.02% 在美联储理事鲍曼的鸽派言论和逊于预期的9月S&P制造业PMI数据公布后 美元回吐了早盘的温和涨幅 [1] - 美元早盘一度走强 因美国第二季度经常账户赤字为2513亿美元 低于预期的2566亿美元赤字 这对美元构成支撑因素 [1][3] - 对美联储独立性的担忧正在打压美元 前总统特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克 以及斯蒂芬·米兰在仍担任白宫经济顾问委员会职务的同时有意担任美联储理事 这些因素可能促使外国投资者抛售美元资产 [2] 美国经济数据与美联储政策 - 美国9月S&P制造业PMI下降1.0至52.0 逊于预期的52.2 [1][3] - 美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼表示 在观察到劳动力市场状况恶化数月后 FOMC是时候采取果断和先发制人的行动来应对劳动力市场活力下降和脆弱的迹象 [4] - 市场目前定价美联储在10月28-29日FOMC会议上降息25个基点的概率为91% [4] - 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示 美联储政策处于轻度限制性区间 中性政策利率比当前利率低100-125个基点 [3] 欧元/美元汇率表现及影响因素 - 欧元/美元(^EURUSD)今日下跌0.03% 在欧元区9月S&P制造业PMI降幅超预期后 欧元回吐早盘涨幅转而微跌 [5] - 欧元区9月S&P制造业PMI下降1.2至49.5 逊于预期的维持在50.7不变 而9月S&P综合PMI上升0.2至51.2 高于预期的51.1 并且是16个月来最强劲的扩张步伐 [5][6] - 欧元受到央行政策分化的支撑 市场认为欧洲央行基本上已完成降息周期 而美联储预计在今年年底前还将大约进行两次降息 [5]

`` The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell by -0.27%.  The dollar was under pressure on Monday as the Fed is expected to cut the fed funds target range by -25 bp at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.  Also, Monday's rally in the S&P to a new record high has dampened liquidity demand for the dollar.  In addition, increased expectations for Fed easing through year-end are bearish for the dollar.  The dollar added to its losses Monday after the US Sep Empire manufacturing survey of general business co ...