文章核心观点 - 前总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为美联储主席候选人 这一事件成为压垮此前持续数月的“货币贬值交易”的最后一根稻草 导致黄金和白银价格从历史高位暴跌 [1][10] - 沃什长期以来严厉批评美联储的量化宽松政策和庞大的资产负债表规模 主张缩减资产负债表 其政策立场与财政部长贝森特高度一致 均反对“印钞” 这动摇了市场对持续宽松货币环境的预期 [3][4][7][8][10] - 市场反应呈现显著分化 贵金属市场因前期涨幅巨大、投机狂热而出现历史性暴跌 股市、债市和美元反应相对平淡 表明不同资产类别对潜在货币政策转向的定价存在差异 [2][13][14][17][18] 贵金属市场反应 - **白银价格剧烈崩盘**：从昨日早间历史高点每盎司121.78美元暴跌至今日下午低点约75美元 跌幅达39% 随后小幅反弹至85美元 仍较历史高位下跌30% [10] - **白银前期涨幅惊人**：自2025年4月初至昨日高点暴涨317% 若从2023年初约20美元算起 涨幅高达500% 市场投机氛围浓厚 [11] - **黄金价格大幅下挫**：从昨日早间每盎司5,575美元跌至今日盘中低点4,700美元 跌幅14% 随后反弹至4,909美元 较昨日早间仍下跌10% [13] - **暴跌触发因素**：沃什获提名消息导致获利了结盘涌出 叠加杠杆头寸的强制平仓 在买家消失的情况下引发价格崩溃 [12] 提名人物政策立场 - **反对量化宽松**：沃什长期抨击美联储的量化宽松政策和巨额资产负债表 认为其规模应大幅缩减 [3] - **历史立场一致**：早在2010年 沃什就曾反对伯南克推出的第二轮量化宽松 并因此于2011年辞去美联储理事职务 [6] - **关注财政协同**：主张与财政部合作缩减资产负债表 以避免市场动荡 并认为庞大的资产负债表使美联储过多卷入财政事务 [7] - **通胀观点独特**：认为通胀由政府过度支出和“印钞”引起 而非工资增长和经济过热 但承认AI等技术带来的生产率提升可能缓解通胀压力 [8][9] 其他金融市场反应 - **美元指数反弹**：美元指数从周二低点95.55升至目前97.15 涨幅1.7% 其中今日上涨0.9% [14] - **股市小幅下跌**：标普500指数下跌0.4%至6,939点 较历史高点下跌不足1% 纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.9%至23,461点 较历史高点下跌2.3% [17] - **债市反应平淡**：10年期国债收益率在提名后仅短暂上行4个基点 随后回吐涨幅 收盘基本持平 [18] - **加密货币承压**：比特币从周三的90,000美元跌至约84,000美元 较10月历史高位下跌31% 以太坊自昨晚消息后下跌约4% 较历史高位下跌45% [19] 市场背景与前期状况 - **“货币贬值交易”盛行**：此前市场炒作美元贬值和货币贬值 推动黄金和白银价格飙升 [15] - **白银市场处于狂热状态**：价格在近期已呈现极端波动 显示市场情绪极度紧张且不可持续 [2] - **美元处于长期区间中位**：尽管媒体渲染美元崩溃 但美元指数实际处于其过去50年波动区间的中部位置 [15]

The markets are discounting the odds at 17% for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.The dollar sank to a nearly 4-year low on Tuesday after President Trump said he’s comfortable with the recent weakness in the dollar. Also, the dollar continues to be under pressure as foreign investors pull capital from the US amid a growing budget deficit, fiscal profligacy, and widening political polarization.Fed comments on Friday were mixed for the dollar. On the positive side, St. Louis Fed Pres ...

Relief that President Donald Trump said he’d tap Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve, rather than someone seen as more willing to ignore inflation and slash interest rates, sent the dollar and short-dated Treasuries rallying. The move ended weeks of speculation in markets about who would replace Jerome Powell, who Trump has attacked repeatedly, and how that would affect markets. The intense pressure on the Fed to lower rates — and a criminal probe into its headquarters renovations revealed earlier thi ...

Thom Tillis, a Republican senator, has reiterated his vow to block Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh from Fed chair until the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, the current head of the central bank, is halted.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1pc to 23,438 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined nearly 1pc to 48,582 points.All three major US indexes have extended losses as investors respond to Kevin Warsh being nominated to lead the Federal Reserve.Gold also plunged, with ...

比特币价格动态 - 比特币价格在周五跌至两个月低点 [1] 市场驱动因素 - 市场猜测下一任美联储主席可能收紧金融体系中的现金，这一因素冲击了加密货币 [1] - 同一因素提振了美元 [1]

The dollar is being undercut by risks to the Federal Reserve’s independence, a growing US budget deficit, fiscal profligacy, and widening political polarization. In addition, the dollar is weighed down by speculation that the US might coordinate FX intervention with Japan to boost the yen, which would dovetail with Mr. Trump’s apparent view that a weak dollar is good for the US as a stimulus to US exports. The yen rose to a 2.75-month high against the dollar on Tuesday as US authorities reportedly contacted ...

The dollar is also under pressure due to US political uncertainty after President Trump on Saturday threatened 100% tariffs on US imports from Canada if Canada signs a trade agreement with China. Canada is seeking other trade partners amid President Trump’s liberal use of tariffs during this second administration.The risk of another partial US government shutdown is also weighing on the dollar. Senate Democrats threatened to block a government funding deal over Department of Homeland Security/ICE funding af ...

The dollar strengthens, while tech earnings loom over the markets. ...

In addition, the dollar is weighed down by speculation that the US might coordinate FX intervention with Japan to boost the yen, which would dovetail with Mr. Trump's apparent view that a weak dollar is good for the US as a stimulus to US exports. The yen rose to a 2.75-month high against the dollar on Tuesday as US authorities reportedly contacted market participants last Friday to check dollar/yen prices, a possible precursor to intervention.The dollar is also under pressure due to US political uncertaint ...

Monex USA华盛顿交易主管Juan Perez表示，在市场不确定性环绕的背景下，作为关键金融权威机构， 美联储保持谨慎、暂不调整利率是合乎情理的。委员之间仍然缺乏共识，因此这一决定在一定程度上有 助于缓解自1月20日以来美元承受的压力。我们认为，美联储的政策路径仍将相当难以预测。 ...