Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caden here in Chicago alongside Sam Bodis at the New York Stock Exchange. We'll close out today's show the same way we usually do with some final thoughts on the session.I want to touch on the beige book, which I know Sam was just talking about with our last guest, but it's showing rising tariffs pushing consumer prices higher, and people are starting to feel the pinch. Retailers across numerous districts saying that they're unable to absorb those extra costs and ...

“Davidson” submits:The primary lead up to recessions has been consumer delinquencies rising to identifiable thresholds. The next Fed report is not till late Nov 2025. Meanwhile, the market in general has focused on the debt level and not the consumer’s ability to handle this debt. Delinquencies at all levels have been near historically comfortable levels for consumer. This report by JPMorgan confirms that over-leveraged consumers are not a threat to the economy. That is: No Recession In Sight! Resilient con ...

零售销售数据 - 8月零售销售数据全面超预期 在线销售表现强劲 且7月数据获上修[2][3] - 消费者韧性超市场预期 显示价格上升未显著抑制消费 消费占GDP比重达70%[3][4] - 强劲消费数据支撑消费者 discretionary sector、金融板块和科技板块表现[5] 利率市场反应 - 强劲消费数据未引发显著利率反应 债券收益率保持相对平稳 10年期和30年期国债仅微幅上升[4][5] - 利率保持相对温和环境 结合低通胀和强劲消费 有利于特定板块表现[5] 美联储政策预期 - 市场预期美联储将加息25个基点 但可能出现政策分歧[8][9] - 美联储会议关注点包括就业与通胀数据矛盾 以及政策独立性议题[9] - 美联储经济预测(SEP)若显示2024年底前可能降息2-3次 将利好小盘股表现[18] 小盘股表现 - 罗素2000指数较历史高点仅差2% 但过去多次出现假突破[16] - 40%罗素指数成分公司处于非盈利状态 且更多依赖短期融资 对利率敏感度高[17] - 小盘股需要更低利率环境支撑 若美联储释放鸽派信号可能推动指数创新高[16][18] 财报披露规则改革 - 美国总统提议将季度财报改为半年度披露 SEC已优先考虑此议题[12][13] - 2018年SEC曾就此征求公众意见 支持方认为可节省成本并促进长期 focus 反对方担忧降低透明度和投资者信息获取[13] - 此改革处于监管流程初期 可能需要数月或一年完成经济影响评估[14]