A tamer-than-expected U.S. inflation report for September injected optimism into markets. Traders are now betting that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut rates at its October meeting — scheduled for later this week — as well as at its December gathering.Major U.S. indexes climbed Friday and had their second consecutive week in the green, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all up about 2% for the week.The inflation report offers additional support to markets al ...

美联储利率决议预期 - 市场普遍预期美联储将在2025年10月28日至29日的政策会议上进行第二次降息，幅度可能为25个基点，这将使短期利率目标区间降至3.75%至4% [1] - 此次降息被视为在就业市场放缓背景下的“保险式降息”，旨在通过降低借贷成本为经济增长提供更多空间，提振商业投资、招聘以及汽车等商品的消费者支出 [2] - 2024年美联储曾降息三次，最近一次是在9月17日，将基准利率下调25个基点 [1] 抵押贷款利率走势 - 尽管抵押贷款利率不直接与联邦基金利率挂钩，但2025年已呈下降趋势，30年期固定利率抵押贷款平均值从1月16日的7.04%降至10月16日的6.27% [3] - 抵押贷款利率的变动主要取决于10年期美国国债市场的活动，长期利率趋势向下，但通胀担忧和高预算赤字可能使10年期国债收益率维持高位 [4] - 行业分析师指出，当前平均30年期固定利率为6.35%，但信用良好的借款人通过积极比较可获得低至5%左右的利率 [8] - 然而，由于70%的现有抵押贷款持有人利率已低于5%，且现有抵押贷款平均利率接近4.25%，目前再融资对大多数房主而言并不划算 [8][9] - 分析师认为，抵押利率需降至5%区间，购房和再融资对多数消费者才更具财务可行性 [9] - 展望未来，随着经济动能减弱和劳动力市场恶化，抵押贷款利率可能在2026年前小幅走低，但预计30年期固定利率将维持在近年观察到的6%至7%区间内 [10][11] 信用卡利率影响 - 平均信用卡利率为20.03%，自9月17日美联储降息以来仅下降9个基点至20.12%，25个基点的降幅对高企的信用卡利率影响微乎其微 [12][13] - 以平均信用卡余额6,473美元为例，在20.03%利率下仅支付最低还款额需219个月（超过18年）还清，总利息达9,380美元；利率降至19.78%后，还款期仅缩短至218个月，利息降至9,255美元 [14] - 信用卡发卡机构无义务在美联储降息后降低新卡利率，现有持卡人的可变利率调整通常需要一至两个账单周期才能生效，且近期更优惠的新利率仅针对信用最佳的借款人 [15][16] - 银行已收紧对低信用评分和低收入人群的贷款标准，若失业率持续上升，这一趋势可能加剧 [17][18] 汽车贷款利率与市场 - 9月美联储降息后，新车和二手车贷款利率小幅下降，60个月新车贷款平均利率为7.12%，48个月二手车贷款平均利率为7.59% [19] - 预计再次降息25个基点将继续推动利率小幅下行，但不足以显著影响购车决策，因新车平均交易价格在9月创下50,080美元的历史新高 [19][20] - 例如，50,000美元的车贷在5.44%利率下月供为954美元，而在7%利率下月供增至991美元 [21] - 行业数据显示，10月新车贷款平均利率已从7月的9%低点升至9.6%，主要因汽车制造商金融部门减少了低利率优惠 [22] - 预计10月降息后汽车贷款利率不会立即改善，可能维持现状直至12月，届时年末促销或提供低利率优惠，但仅适用于信用优良的借款人 [23] - 到2026年初，随着美联储进一步降息、消费者实得工资因预扣税减少而增加以及平均退税预计超过4,000美元，汽车贷款利率可能下降一个百分点或更多 [24] 未来政策与经济展望 - 经济学家预计10月之后美联储政策前景不明朗，通胀尚未稳定回归2%目标，过早过猛降息可能重燃通胀压力 [26] - 若降息幅度超预期，华尔街可能解读为经济衰退信号，从而削弱投资者信心 [26] - 就业增长已陷入停滞，企业因经济政策和前景不确定性而普遍停止招聘，人工智能新技术也可能减缓对20多岁入门级员工的招聘 [28] - 美联储担忧若经济陷入衰退，其将因长期维持高利率而受指责，这可能为削弱央行独立性的努力提供口实 [29][31] - 经济学家预测12月将再降息25个基点，2026年还将有三次类似降息，使联邦基金利率目标区间在明年夏初降至2.75%至3% [32]

US stocks surged to record highs on Friday as investors digested a crucial inflation report that helped cement expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 1%, or over 450 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 1.2%. The September inflation data released on Friday morning came in cooler than expected. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 3% on an annual basis, the highest level since May but softer th ...

The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0% year-over-year in September, coming in below economists’ expectations of 3.1% and marking the first time inflation has reached or exceeded 3% since January. The cooler-than-expected reading came as a shock, with odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in October surging to 97% on Polymarket immediately after the data release. Source: Polymarket Bitcoin responded by climbing back above $111,000. Inflation Data Beats Expectations Across ...

: Americans struggling with high borrowing costs may finally be getting some relief as the average rate for a Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates fall nearly a full point lower than early 2025Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said that, “At the start of 2025, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 7%, while today it hovers nearly a full percentage point lower,” as quoted by CNN.The decline comes as home prices soften in many major metro areas, prompting sidelined buyers to consider entering the market ...

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets: Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.Prediction market bettors are growing increasingly convinced that the U.S. government shutdown will make history. Contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a resumption of government after 40 days, surpassing the 35-day record set i ...

Trump Jerome Powell. Photo by BeInCrypto Bitcoin and crypto markets face a pivotal moment as Federal Reserve policymakers debate whether the next rate cut will be a cautious 25 or a bold 50 basis points. The outcome could reshape digital asset markets and challenge the long-standing 4-year Bitcoin cycle. The Fed’s internal debate signals a major change in monetary policy as inflation cools and labor markets show signs of strain. Traders seek clarity, knowing the Fed’s move could affect liquidity and the p ...

Freddie Mac said on Thursday that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage slipped to 6.27% from 6.3% last week. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.44%, AP reported. The current level is just above 6.26%, last seen four weeks ago after a steady run of declines pushed borrowing costs to their lowest since early October 2024.Rates on 15-year fixed mortgages, often used by homeowners refinancing existing loans, also edged lower — dropping to 5.52% from 5.53% a week earlier. A year ago, the average stood at 5.63%, F ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since the central bank’s policy meeting in September but emphasized that "the downside risks to employment appear to have risen." That appears to imply that another rate cut is possible at the Fed's next meeting on Oct. 28-29, even though Powell did say Tuesday that monetary policy will be set meeting by meeting. While policymakers on the Fed's 19-member Federal Open Market Committee have p ...

dxy, us dollar index, bitcoin. Photo by BeInCrypto The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September. Even as expectations grow for another rate cut in October, the DXY reached its highest level in two months. This movement seems to contradict what many crypto market analysts had predicted. Why is this happening, and what impact could it have? Why Is the DXY Rising Despite Fed Rate Cuts? Normally, a Fed rate cut signals potential dollar depreciation. Investors oft ...