The economic narrative last week was shaped by a highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut, which came against a backdrop of conflicting signals in the labor market. While the latest JOLTS report in... ...

Is the U.S. jobs market even worse than it looks? Most top officials at the Federal Reserve sure seem to think so. ...

Dec 12 (Reuters) - Global equity funds attracted significant inflows in the week to December 10 as investors positioned for a potential ​Federal Reserve rate cut, despite lingering concerns over stretched tech ‌valuations and heavy AI-related spending. Investors acquired global equity funds of a net $12.9 billion, the highest ‌for a week since $22.72 billion net additions in the week through November 5. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signalled it ...

Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management global head of fixed income, says the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points ended up being "not as bad as it could've been." The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to lower the rate, with dissents on both ends of the policy spectrum. ...

jittawit21 / Shutterstock.com Key Points Futures markets price in a Fed rate cut in December 2025. DIVO generates a 4.63% yield through covered calls on blue-chip stocks like IBM and Microsoft. PFF offers a 6.36% yield and trades at a 20% discount with preferred shares from financials and REITs. If you’re thinking about retiring or know someone who is, there are three quick questions causing many Americans to realize they can retire earlier than expected. take 5 minutes to learn more here After ...

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) jumped to hover above $94,000 on Tuesday, but strategists grew cautious of a year-end crypto rally amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this week, while signaling a potential pause in future policy easing. Markets widely expect the central bank to deliver a 25-basis-point rate reduction at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. But both CME FedWatch and Polymarket show growing bets that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks could signal ...

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The crypto market perked up Monday on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut that are juicing the appetite for risk across the board. Bitcoin (BTC) rose to nearly $92,000, up 3% over the last 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indexes added in the region of 3.5%. That said, bulls might want to exercise caution because there are least three yellow flags waving. First off, this rate cut is basically a done deal, so all eyes are on ...

市场整体表现与预期 - 美股期货在周一表现平稳 标普500指数期货(ES=F)在平盘线附近徘徊 以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数期货(NQ=F)上涨约0.2% 道琼斯工业平均指数期货(YM=F)也几无变动 [1] - 市场受到9月温和的PCE消费者通胀数据提振 该数据显示对“核心”支出的影响微弱 推动主要股指连续数周上涨 [2] 宏观经济与货币政策焦点 - 市场关注焦点是美联储周二的政策会议 公众密切关注周三美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的宣布和新闻发布会 对降息的信心达到乐观高点 [2] - 市场对降息的预期近期飙升 根据CME FedWatch工具 交易员目前认为降息概率为88% 而一个月前为67% [3] - 美联储已于2024年9月开始将其基准利率从超过二十年高位下调 至今已累计降息1.5个百分点至3.75%至4%的区间 交易员普遍预计周三会议后将再次降息25个基点 并定价明年还将有两次类似降息 这将使利率降至3%左右 [8] 债券市场异常动态 - 债券市场对美联储降息的反应极不寻常 国债收益率在央行降息时攀升 这种脱节现象是自1990年代以来未曾见过的 [4] - 关键国债收益率并未随美联储降息而下降 自美联储开始放松政策以来 十年期国债收益率(^TNX)已上升近0.5个百分点至4.1% 三十年期国债收益率则上升超过0.8个百分点 [9] - 对于收益率与政策背离的原因存在激烈争论 观点各异 包括乐观看法（避免衰退的信心标志） 中性看法（回归2008年前的市场常态） 以及所谓的债券义警偏爱的归因（投资者对美国控制不断膨胀的国债失去信心） [5] 政治与政策风险 - 债券市场并不认同前总统唐纳德·特朗普的观点 即更快的降息将导致债券收益率下滑 进而降低抵押贷款、信用卡和其他类型贷款的利率 [6] - 存在美联储因屈服于更激进放松政策的政治压力而丧失信誉的风险 这可能通过推高本已高企的通胀和推升收益率而产生反效果 [7] 劳动力市场与公司财报 - 劳动力市场将成为关注焦点 周二将发布推迟的10月JOLTS报告 提供招聘活动、裁员和员工离职速度的数据 [3] - 财报方面 甲骨文(ORCL)和Adobe(ADBE)的季度业绩将于周三成为焦点 博通(AVGO)和好市多(COST)的财报则领衔周四的日程 [4]

市场对美联储政策会议的预期 - 市场普遍预期美联储将在12月9-10日的政策会议上进行2025年内的第三次降息 这被视为既定事实 [1] - 除了降息 美联储关于其6.5万亿美元资产负债表规模的计划将对市场至关重要 关键在于其将保持稳定还是开始扩张 [1][4] 股市表现与货币政策影响 - 尽管年内经历波折 股市仍有望再创新高 标普500指数上周收于6870.40点 仅比10月纪录高点低0.3% 年初至今涨幅达16.8% [2][5] - 当前高利率的货币政策具有限制性 但并未显著影响股市上涨 存在两种货币政策在发挥作用 一是针对“资产富裕”阶层的资产负债表政策 通过“财富效应”刺激支出 二是针对其他人的利率政策 [2][3] 不同经济分层的表现差异 - 高利率对小企业和“K型”经济中底层家庭造成了压力 导致小企业裁员 而高收入阶层的情况可能有所改善 [3] - 信用卡数据显示 低收入消费者更常背负信用卡余额并面临触及信用额度的风险 而高收入消费者虽较少背负余额 却一直是消费支出的主要驱动力 [4]

市场前景与驱动因素 - Coinbase Institutional认为加密货币市场可能准备好在12月复苏 核心观点基于流动性改善和宏观经济条件转变 这些条件可能有利于比特币等风险资产 [1] - 美联储下周降息的可能性上升是核心驱动因素 根据Polymarket和CME FedWatch的数据 降息概率分别被定价为93%和86% [1] - 流动性条件正在改善 依据是公司内部追踪影响资产价格的货币流动的M2指数 公司此前曾预测11月疲软后将出现反弹 [2] 潜在积极因素 - 除了宏观条件 其他可能支撑涨势的顺风因素包括 预期中尚未破裂的所谓人工智能泡沫 以及美元走弱 [2] - 尽管本周仍处于较低水平 但比特币已从最差水平回升 这可能受到机构相关头条新闻的推动 例如Vanguard的加密货币ETF政策逆转 以及美国银行允许其财富顾问建议投资组合中配置高达4%的加密货币 [3]