This week has been a very topsy-turvy week for the portfolio. Not only did it not benefit from the run in small cap because it lacks those companies with no earnings companies that focus on uranium, quantum computing, former crypto mining companies, it drew most of the fallout from the bankruptcy of First Brands and TriColor. Halfway into the week, the portfolio benefited when Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicate that the path going forward are likely to be lower rates. What dominated the headlines was what ha ...

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Welcome to the latest edition of “ignore the headlines.” Day after day, the stock market seems to exhibit a very short memory. When playing sports and losing a game, that’s a good trait to have. When it relates to what drives markets now, as opposed to what drove them a decade or two ago, that’s a bad habit. It has not cost traders that much yet. But it could. More News from Barchart The biggest banks and brokerage firms kicked off earnings season Tuesday morning. As usual, the big fellas came through w ...

黄金价格表现 - 黄金价格在9月第一周创下7个交易日内第6个历史新高[2] - 金价突破1980年设定的通胀调整后纪录 创45年来新高[2] - 金价不仅以美元计价创历史新高 同时以欧元、英镑、人民币等主要货币计价均创新高[2] - 白银价格同步上涨 年内涨幅超40% 达14年高点[4] 行业驱动因素 - 全球央行持续购买黄金 储备增加量创纪录[2] - 黄金ETF今年以来资金流入近500亿美元 创历史第二强劲表现[2] - 政治不确定性和恐惧情绪推动避险需求[2] - 工业应用需求增长 特别是太阳能电池板和电子领域对白银的需求[4] 矿业公司财务表现 - 主要生产商全部维持成本(AISC)介于每盎司1080至1220美元之间[7] - 当前现货价格超过成本三倍以上 利润率异常丰厚[7] - 自由现金流在整个行业大幅增长 投资资本回报率处于多年高位[9] - 纽约证券交易所Arca黄金矿商指数本月创历史新高 超越2011年水平[7] 个股表现 - Sibanye-Stillwater、AngloGold Ashanti和Gold Fields年内涨幅均超150%[7] - SSR Mining股价表现突出 年内涨幅达220%[7] - 白银矿业股票可能提供更高杠杆效应[4] 公司治理与股东回报 - 矿业公司展现财务纪律 管理层专注于运营效率和强劲资产负债表[9] - 公司将现金流导向股息和股票回购[9] - 行业现金充裕但未盲目追求增长 避免了过度收购和股东稀释[8] - 当前行业基本面更加健康 资产负债表更为强劲[9] 宏观经济背景 - 美国经济显示明显压力迹象 劳工部下调截至3月的就业增长数据91.1万个岗位[10] - 失业人数自2021年以来首次超过职位空缺数量[10] - 消费者通胀率维持在2.9% 批发价格短暂下跌[10] - 经济学家警告经济可能年底陷入衰退 担忧滞胀风险[11] 投资建议与配置 - 建议投资组合中配置10%黄金 其中5%为实物金条、金币或珠宝 另外5%为高质量黄金矿业股票[12] - 瑞·达利欧建议配置10-15%黄金 超过通常推荐的10%比例[3] - 若美国国债市场27万亿美元中1%资金流入黄金 金价可能飙升至每盎司5000美元[11] - 矿业公司目前处于杠杆化盈利状态 成本约1100美元而金价超过3600美元[12]

Inflation is up and its down.We have revisions and a weakening jobs market.10yr Treasury trying to break below 4%.And a new top dog is crowned.Our guest, Peter Schiff of Europacific Global.NEW! DOWNLOAD THE AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment)Peter Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers in 1987. A financial professional for over twenty years, he joined Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. (EPC) in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. Peter Sch ...

金融行业人才流向体制内现象 - 2025年湖南省财政厅拟录用公务员名单中出现中信建投前员工、百亿量化私募思勰投资前研究员等金融从业者，学历均为硕士且来自头部机构[3] - 过去两年金融圈考公成潮流，涉及摩根基金、嘉实基金、南方基金、光大证券、中信证券等机构从业者转向公务员岗位[3] - 2024年上海、北京、湖南等地公务员录用名单中至少有30余名金融从业者，包括摩根基金任职11年的量化研究员[4] 行业背景与动因 - 2024年38家上市券商中仅6家投行业务收入正增长（最高+91%），32家平均下滑27%（最高降幅84%）[7] - 量化私募领域出现人事地震：靖奇投资创始人清盘产品、思勰投资创始合伙人退股、佳期资本实控人更替[6] - 证监会2025年拟录用公务员名单中287人有28人来自券商，上海首批录用名单含15位券商从业者[7] 人才结构变化特征 - 转型者多为有职场经验的非应届生，包含十年以上从业老将，区别于传统"应届生主场"录用模式[4] - 财政部2024年拟录用的10名金融背景人员含清华硕士、基金经理等，将任职财政票据监管中心等专业岗位[15] 对体制内的影响 - 金融从业者带入体制的风险管理、合规意识、成本核算等经验可能改变部门决策机制[14] - 公务员体系或从"应届生围城"转向吸纳"跨周期经验者"的融合生态[15]