The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell by -0.06% and posted a 1-week low.  The shutdown of the US government on Wednesday weighed on the dollar.  The dollar added to its losses on Wednesday on weakness in the US labor market, following the unexpected contraction of the September ADP employment change for a second consecutive month.  The weak labor market news also boosted the chances of a Fed rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting to 100% in the swaps market, a negative factor for the dollar.  The ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.19% at a 1-week low. The shutdown of the US government today is weighing on the dollar.  The dollar added to its losses today on weakness in the US labor market, following the unexpected contraction of the September ADP employment change for a second consecutive month.  The weak labor market news also boosted the chances of a Fed rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting to 100% in the swaps market, a negative factor for the dollar.  Losses in the dollar are li ...

For 3 minutes on the markets. Mark, good morning to you. So let's start with the impact of shot down and in particular on the US dollar.ICC sitting talking about how this is something that's going to weigh on the dollar. And I think from reading your notes, you think that that's the sort of path of least resistance for the dollar right now. Absolutely.I think that's probably the easiest way to kind of play this kind of theme. I think overall, what government shutdown means is not major economic impact unles ...

美元指数表现及驱动因素 - 美元指数今日下跌0.29% 主要因市场预期本周疲弱的美国劳动力市场数据将促使美联储继续降息 [1] - 周三美国政府关停的迫近风险打压市场对美元的情绪 但8月成屋签约销售指数超预期反弹限制了美元跌幅 [1] - 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克发表鹰派言论 称通胀在2027年底或2028年初前难以回到2%目标 需要维持限制性政策立场 [3] - 市场预计美联储在10月28-29日FOMC会议上降息25个基点的概率为89% [3] 美国经济数据 - 美国8月成屋签约销售指数环比增长4.0% 远超预期的0.4% 为五个月来最大增幅 [1][2] - 美国9月达拉斯联储制造业活动调查意外下降6.9至-8.7 弱于预期升至-1.0 [3] 欧元兑美元表现及驱动因素 - 欧元兑美元今日上涨0.29% 受益于美元走弱及欧元区积极经济数据 [4] - 欧元区9月经济信心指数意外上升0.2至95.5 高于预期的95.3 [4][5] - 欧洲央行管委马赫卢夫称欧央行"接近"降息周期底部 需对美国关税影响保持警惕 [4][6] - 市场认为欧央行基本结束降息周期 而美联储预计年底前再降息两次 政策分化支撑欧元 [5] - 市场预计欧央行在10月30日政策会议上降息25个基点的概率仅为2% [6] 美元兑日元表现及驱动因素 - 美元兑日元今日下跌0.62% 因美元走弱及日本积极数据 [7] - 日本7月领先指数CI上修至四个月高点 对日元构成利好 [7] - 日本央行董事会成员、著名鸽派人士野口旭发表鹰派言论 提及有必要加息 推动日元走强 [7]