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A股市场动能改善，里程碑式IPO提振情绪；港股风险回报承压-20260819
摩根士丹利· 2026-08-19 16:25
August 19, 2026 07:42 AM GMT 中国市场智见 | Asia Pacific 我们认为，今年是A股科技IPO具有里程碑意义的一年，但其市场影响具有两面 性。短期而言，热门IPO会造成明显的流动性扰动⸺并非源于申购资金压力，而 是新股上市后的投资组合轮动、交易拥挤度上升，以及新股对市场流动性的阶段 性吸收来产生影响。我们认为，这也是7月以来A股回报偏弱的原因之一，此外A股 与全球同类市场的相关性也较高。 不过，我们认为这种影响应当是短暂的⸺最长约两周，而非持续性的全市场流动 性短缺：在我们的基准情境下，直接交易拥挤约持续3-5个交易日；若考虑二级市 场行业轮动，10个交易日可视为较为审慎的上限窗口。 从个股层面看，历史上大型科技IPO通常在上市初期强劲上涨，随后出现显著回 撤：A股历史上规模最大的9宗科技IPO，平均在上市后约6个交易日触及首个高 点，此后较峰值回调约50%-60%。 不过，我们认为本轮情况可能有所不同，主要有四个原因： 详见后文： 概览（续） This translated report is made available for convenience only an ...
European Equity Derivatives Strategy: VSTOXX call spreads and thematic trade on European Industrials-20260819
摩根大通· 2026-08-19 15:08
(44-20) 7134-4082 davide.silvestrini@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Esmail Afsah AC (44-20) 7742-9231 esmail.afsah@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Yangyang Hou (1-212) 834-6734 yangyang.hou@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Tony SK Lee J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 19 August 2026 European Equity Derivatives Strategy VSTOXX call spreads and thematic trade on European Industrials Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy Davide Silvestrini AC (852) 2800-8857 tony.sk.lee@jpm ...
US Equity Strategy: Cash flow surge supports upside, Q2 EPS takes-20260819
瑞银· 2026-08-19 11:11
ab 18 August 2026 Global Research US Equity Strategy Cash flow surge supports upside, Q2 EPS takes Cash flow is surging: more capex, spending and payouts to come Q2 reporting reinforced our view that the business cycle is in a new phase where cash flow velocity is driving multiplier effects across industries. Surging cloud sales driving a jump in operating cash flow (OCF) instills more confidence in AI capex sustainability. But outside of hyperscalers, there is ~$750bn more OCF to spend on capex, AI, R&D, o ...