The dollar briefly climbed to its strongest level in two months as political risks abroad took center stage amid a lack of US data. Most Read from Bloomberg The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat after erasing gains on dovish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams. He backed further interest-rate cuts this year and said he’s paying close attention to risks of a further slowdown in the labor market in an interview with the New York Times published on Thursday. Earlier th ...

日元汇率动态 - 日元兑美元汇率跌至153日元，为2月14日以来最弱水平 [1] - 日元走软主要因市场降低对日本央行本月加息的预期 [1] - 较低的利率通常对本国货币产生负面影响 [1] 政策制定者影响 - 日本执政党自民党在领导层选举中选出鹰派人物Sanae Takaichi [1] - Takaichi曾公开批评日本央行进一步加息是"愚蠢的"行为 [1] 市场观点与展望 - 研究机构总裁Ed Yardeni指出，日元跌破150兑1美元水平可能只是开始 [2] - 与安倍经济学类似，新领导层的政策重点可能更偏向货币和财政刺激，而非结构性改革 [2]

日元汇率走势 - 日元兑美元汇率跌至15234的2月以来最低水平 [1][2] - 日元兑欧元汇率跌至自1999年欧元诞生以来的新低 [2] - 市场预期日本央行加息可能性降低 利率互换显示10月30日会议加息概率从约57%降至25% [2][5] 政策预期变化 - 新任自民党领袖高市早苗倾向于日本央行谨慎加息 并支持央行与政府密切沟通 [4] - 高市早苗的一位经济顾问表示12月加息时机更为合适 [4] - 分析师认为新政府将运用其影响力推动经济走强 [5] 市场策略与机构观点 - 高市早苗胜选引发"高市交易" 导致收益率曲线变陡 股市上涨 日元走弱 [5] - 日元疲软复兴了利差交易策略 投资者借入低收益日元购买高收益货币 [5] - 美国银行将年底日元汇率预测从153上调至155兑1美元 德意志银行由看多转为中性 [6] 对冲成本变化 - 对冲日元进一步贬值的成本变得更加昂贵 [7] - 未来一个月对冲日元兑美元下跌的溢价升至三年多来最高水平 [7]

The flight to gold as a safe-haven asset is starting to worry Ken Griffin. The Citadel CEO said he believes investors viewed gold the way they once viewed the US dollar. Other things in the economy that concern him include the outlook for US debt and inflation. Gold just hit an all-time high of $4,000 an ounce, but if you ask Ken Griffin, that might not be a great sign. The metal is having its best year since the 1970s as factors like economic uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and inflation concerns dr ...

(Bloomberg) — Billionaire Ray Dalio said that gold (GC=F) is “certainly” more of a safe haven than the US dollar (DX=F) and the metal’s record-setting rally echoes the 1970s, when it surged during a time of high inflation and economic instability. The remarks from Dalio — who founded the hedge-fund firm Bridgewater Associates — came during an appearance at a conference on Tuesday, when he was asked whether he agreed with the view of Citadel’s Ken Griffin that gold’s rise reflected anxiety about the US cur ...

Inflation is substantially about target and substantially above target in all forecasts for next year. It means part of the reason the dollar's depreciated by about 10% in the first half of this year. It's the single biggest decline.In the US dollar in six months. In 50 years, gold is is at record highs and the appreciation in other dollar substitutes, to use that word loosely in items like crypto for example, is is is unbelievable. So we're seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar as as peop ...

(Bloomberg) — Global trading of the Chinese yuan has surged to $817 billion a day, extending a decade-long trend with volumes nearing those of the British pound, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The yuan now makes up 8.5% of global currency transactions, up from 7.0% in 2022, according to the BIS’s triennial survey. While it remains the fifth-most traded currency, it closed the gap with fourth-placed sterling, whose share fell from 12.9% to 10.2%. Most Read from Bloomberg Chinese of ...

In April, talk of a “Sell America” trade picked up steam on Wall Street following the unveiling of President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. US stocks, Treasurys, and the dollar all tumbled at once — an unusual dislocation that shook confidence in America’s safe-haven status. But recent data indicates that investors abroad have actually stuck with US stocks in 2025. From the start of the year to the end of June, foreign investors allocated more than 30% of their US financial assets to equities — near r ...

通胀数据与美联储政策预期 - 本周PPI显著下降而CPI保持坚挺 所有数据基本符合预期[1] - 市场关注下周美联储会议 讨论焦点在50基点与25基点降息幅度[2] - 疲弱劳动力市场数据得到失业救济初请数据确认 指向更多小幅降息或大幅降息可能性[2][3] 市场表现与估值水平 - 市场处于历史高位 似乎没有下行理由 呈现震荡上行态势[4][5] - 整体市场估值偏贵 门槛较高 对任何负面消息非常敏感[9] - VIX恐慌指数本周跌破15点 显著低于15.39%的历史平均值 反映市场缺乏双向交易[6][7] 利率敏感型行业表现 - 10年期国债收益率维持在4%左右 昨日曾触及该水平下方[7] - 抵押贷款申请本周表现良好 利率下降至4%对房地产市场意义重大[8][9] - 下周将发布大量住房数据 预计为房地产行业带来利好消息[9] 经济数据与市场催化剂 - 周二零售销售数据备受关注 预计表现良好[3][5] - 消费者信心指数预计为58 一年期通胀预期为4.8%[12][14] - 市场正在寻找下一个催化剂 可能来自下周美联储会议[10][11] 大宗商品与货币监测 - 密切关注原油价格走势[7] - 密切关注美元汇率变动[7] - 期权隐含波动率受到压制 因市场持续创出新高[6]

(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Well, that was a relief. U.S. CPI was on the firmer side but not so much that you'd notice. Some of the prices that feed into core PCE were surprisingly benign, leading analysts to trim their forecasts to +0.2% m/m and a steady 2.9% on the year. So it's all go for the Federal Reserve to resume its easing cycle with 25 basis points next week, though it's notable markets see just a 7% chance of a bumper 50bps. You would ass ...