Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield. Market Valuation (P/E10) and Inflation The "sweet spot†of 1.4% to 3.0% inflation has historically supported higher market valuations. Currently, the P/E10 stands at 38.6, with a year-ove ...

Bonds offer a hedge as stocks get expensive; the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund is up 5.61% year to date, on a total return basis. ...

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 30, 2025: Dow Hits New Record Last Updated: Updated 3 hours ago Dow Notches Record. S&P 500 Rallies to End Best September Since 2010. By Customer Center Network Connor Smith The stock market rallied late on Tuesday to wrap up its best September in more than a decade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 82 points, or 0.2%, to mark a record closing high. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.3%. The S&P and Nasdaq each had their best September performa ...

The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of 'stagflation' (economic stagnation coupled with inflation) Inverted ...

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg Treasuries extended losses as data showing the labor market was holding up pushed yields to three-week highs and led traders to modestly lower expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the coming months. Short-maturity rates, which track expectations for Fed policy most closely, led the move after weekly jobless claims came in below estimates while separate figures showed stronger-than-forecas ...

美国国债收益率曲线 - 截至2025年9月19日 10年期国债收益率为4.14% 2年期为3.57% 30年期为4.75% [1] - 收益率曲线倒挂现象指长期收益率低于短期收益率 其中10-2利差被广泛视为经济衰退的可靠领先指标 [2] - 10-2利差从2022年7月5日至2024年8月26日持续为负 最近一次负值出现在2024年9月5日 [3] - 基于首次负利差时点 经济衰退平均领先时间为48周 基于末次正利差时点则平均为18.5周 [4] 不同期限利差表现 - 10年期与3个月期利差在2022年10月25日至2024年12月12日期间为负 自2025年2月26日起在正负区间波动 [5] - 10-3个月利差倒挂后经济衰退领先时间介于34至69周 平均领先时间为48周 [6] - 两种利差指标均出现1998年假阳性信号 且在2009年衰退前多次出现负值 [2][5] 抵押贷款利率与联邦基金利率关联 - 联邦基金利率上升通常推高抵押贷款利率 但2024年9月美联储降息周期启动时出现反向走势 [7] - 当前30年期固定抵押贷款利率为6.35% 创2024年10月以来新低 该下降趋势发生在美联储维持利率稳定期间 [7] 市场影响因素与投资工具 - 美联储政策对市场行为产生重大影响 特别通过干预措施影响10年期国债与标普500指数关联 [8] - 国债相关ETF包括Vanguard 0-3个月国债ETF(VBIL) Vanguard中期国债ETF(VGIT)及Vanguard长期国债ETF(VGLT) [9]

债券市场投资者行为 - 投资者正在调整债券市场持仓以应对美联储货币政策转向 [1] 货币政策变化 - 美联储货币政策发生转向 [1]

美联储政策与市场反应 - 美联储在9月18日实施25个基点降息 随后国债收益率在周四早盘交易中小幅上升 因固定收益投资者调整对增长和通胀的预期[1] - 美联储官员将今年和明年GDP预测上调 并预测2027年增长更强劲 同时小幅下调整体失业率预估[2] - 美联储暗示年底前还有两次25个基点降息 并计划2026年再次降息 尽管注意到未来几个月通胀风险 但更关注就业增长疲软问题[2] 股市表现 - 道琼斯指数 标普500指数和纳斯达克指数在9月18日均创历史新高[1] 收益率变动 - 国债收益率在美联储降息后呈现上升趋势 反映市场对利率预期的重新定价[1]

市场表现 - 标普500指数期货上涨0.1% 延续历史新高走势 [1] - 纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2% [1] - 道琼斯指数期货微跌不足0.1% [1] 债券市场 - 2年期国债收益率跃升至3.56% [1] - 10年期国债收益率上升至4.06% [1] 经济数据 - 8月零售销售数据显著强于经济学家预期 [1] - 强劲零售数据推动国债收益率跳涨 [1] 政策环境 - 美联储利率决策受到更严格审视 [1]

Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of 'stagflation' (economic stagnation coupled with inflation) Inverted Yield Curve An inverted yield curve is when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than their shorter term counterparts. The next chart displays the latest 10-2 spread. Typically, the spread turns negative for a period before rising again prior to recessions, as illustrated in the four recessions shown on this chart. For ...