美联储独立性受挑战 - 82%受访者认为特朗普政府行动旨在限制或消除美联储独立性[1] 其中41%认为直接目标是消除独立性 41%认为旨在限制独立性[2] - 68%认为这些行动将加剧通胀压力 57%预计导致更高失业率 54%预测经济增长放缓 74%认为将削弱美元价值[4] - 39%受访者预测利率将下降 相同比例预测利率将上升 显示对利率影响存在分歧[5] 货币政策预期变化 - 97%受访者预计美联储将降息25个基点 但仅41%认为这是正确决策 28%支持降息50个基点 28%反对任何降息[6] - 联邦基金利率预测从当前4.38%降至2025年底3.66% 2026年进一步降至3.13% 较7月调查多一次降息预期[7] - 通胀预测显示2025年CPI升至3.05% 2026年降至2.8% 持续高于美联储2%目标[9] 经济衰退风险上升 - 经济衰退概率从31%跃升至40% 为四个月来首次上升 55%受访者预计若发生衰退将持续10个月[8] - 2025年经济增长预期维持1.5% 2026年反弹至2% 但预计今明两年失业率将更急剧上升[8] - 就业市场疲软被归因于企业利润率受压 关税被列为经济扩张的首要威胁[10] 关税政策影响评估 - 86%受访者预计关税将导致价格上涨 其中半数认为重大价格涨幅尚未完全显现[9] - 关税成本分担比例为：消费者31% 批发商和进口商29% 零售商23% 出口商仅承担18%[9] - 关税与经济政策不确定性并列最大经济威胁 美联储独立性挑战被视为第三大风险[10]

A report from Türkiye Today claims The North Face has shifted 80% of its production as a result of escalating costs in Türkiye. These costs have reportedly doubled compared to those of competitors in the Far East. Gelisim Tekstil, previously The North Face's second-largest global producer and its largest within the EU, is allegedly preparing to see a drastic reduction in business. The company will now only get orders valued between €4m ($4.6m) and €5m from The North Face, down from approximately €30m, ac ...

黄金价格表现 - 金价创历史新高达到每盎司3730美元且年初至今涨幅超过40% [1] - 金价上涨伴随美元走软及市场关注美联储会议前的利率环境 [1] 价格上涨驱动因素 - 央行购金速度达到历史水平的两倍成为金价早期领先指标 [2] - 机构投资者和零售投资者从去年年中开始进入黄金市场 [2] - 美联储降息预期及地缘政治与经济不确定性共同推动金价 [3][4] - 主权层面和企业层面的不确定性达到更高水平 [4] 黄金与比特币比较 - 黄金作为传统财富储存手段具有历史验证的实物资产属性 [5][6] - 黄金独立于其他资产类别且不受机构控制具有不可没收特性 [6] - 比特币与其他加密货币被视为新兴财富储存替代方案 [5] 美联储政策影响 - 市场预期美联储将实施25个基点降息且对金价形成积极影响 [7] - 全年预计累计降息50个基点但具体幅度对黄金影响中性偏正面 [7] - 政策方向性变化特别是美元贬值趋势将成为黄金核心驱动因素 [8]

Beef prices once again pose a threat to steakhouses. As a result, we saw last month how Texas Roadhouse ( TXRH ) fell 6% after earnings, as the company missedI’m a long-term investor focused on U.S. and European equities, with a dual emphasis on undervalued growth stocks and high-quality dividend growers. Through years of experience, I’ve learned that sustained profitability—evident in strong margins, stable and expanding free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital—is a more reliable driver of retu ...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday he had a good session with former Fed official James Bullard as part of his search for a new Fed chairman. "Mr. Bullard and I had a very good approximately two-hour session. He has incredible experience from the St. Louis Fed. He is an expert on monetary policy, deep academic background, and knows the institution of the Fed very well," Bessent said in an interview with CNBC. Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve B ...

Before we discuss what the Fed will do, we need to have a discussion about the conflict on interest rates between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Both think interest rates are very important, but they both have very different points of view.For everything else you need to know ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, keep reading for more from three of our top market analysts.But perhaps our uneasy monetary policymakers, their shoulders preemptively bent under the weight of history’s judgment, can take so ...

Now, let's bring in Fox News contributor Liz Peak, who is live on set to discuss this with us. Uh, Liz, the talk of a rate cut and what's suggested by Jay Powell versus what we need. And by the way, to remind everyone, it's the board of governors that makes this decision.We tend to put this as its Fed chair, but it's the board of governors. >> Although typically the governors do go along with the Fed chair. It's pretty in fact the last meeting there were two dissenters and that was like totally shocking to ...

And in a taxable account, the IRS imputes phantom interest each year. Uncle Sam taxes you on gains while inflation robs you of value. You pay taxes on money you haven’t received for an investment that’s losing purchasing power.The U.S. money supply has grown at 7% annually for decades. At 7% debasement, purchasing power halves every decade. After 30 years, your $100 will buy what $13 buys today.But the real trap is that future $100. Inflation is not just the CPI print . It is monetary dilution.With 30 years ...

Has there ever been an interest rate cut with such a long, dramatic, scrutinized gestation period? No matter, Wall Street is already thinking, what have you done for me lately? The Federal Reserve reconvenes today for what may just be the most loaded, and consequential, central bank meeting in modern history. A quarter-point slash is now all but certain to be announced tomorrow — and indeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted as much since the group’s last meeting in July. But is the seemingly never-end ...

北京时间本周四凌晨，美联储公布了最新利率决议，维持利率不变但释放关键鸽派信号。决议公布后， 黄金价格剧烈波动，最终站稳 2340 美元 / 盎司上方。这场全球瞩目的货币政策会议，将为黄金后市走 向提供哪些关键线索？投资者又该如何布局？ 一、美联储决议核心要点解读 本次会议释放了三个关键信号： 降息路径明确：点阵图显示 2024 年预计降息 1 次（3 月预期为 3 次），2025 年再降息 4 次 承认通胀进展：声明中新增 "通胀已有所缓解" 的表述，承认抗通胀取得进展 放缓缩表速度：从 6 月起将国债减持速度从每月 600 亿美元降至 250 亿美元 市场即时反应： 美元指数暴跌 0.8%，创一个月新低 黄金短线震荡后最终收涨，站稳 2340 关口 美债收益率全线下跌，2 年期收益率跌穿 4.75% 二、黄金多头狂欢的三大支撑 美联储决议为黄金提供了三重利好： 支撑一：实际利率下行趋势确立 美联储降息路径明确，意味着实际利率将进入下行通道 黄金与实际利率呈负相关，利率下行直接提升黄金吸引力 支撑二：美元走弱格局形成 美联储与其他主要央行（如欧央行）的政策差缩小 美元走弱使得以美元计价的黄金更便宜，刺激全球需 ...