Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there is “no risk-free path” for the central bank's next policy move as inflation remains elevated while the job market weakens. It's "a challenging situation," Powell said during a speech in Rhode Island on Tuesday, reiterating that the Fed must balance its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. "Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path,” he added. Powell’s comments repeated many of the same points he made last Wednesday after the ...

New Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said Monday he wants central bank interest rates to be roughly 2 percentage points lower, arguing that the current level is too high and poses risks to the US economy. “Monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” Miran said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.” Miran said he believes the appropriate level for the Fed’s p ...

货币政策立场 - 支持美联储25个基点的降息决定 认为7月降息是合理的[1] - 强调央行应更加关注就业侧的政策目标 当前就业风险大于通胀风险[2] 政策沟通与前瞻指引 - 批评央行缺乏明确政策锚定 导致市场不确定性上升[2][3] - 指出央行自2021年政策失误后过度依赖回溯数据 缺乏前瞻性指引[3] - 认为政策不确定性会抑制企业投资和家庭支出意愿[3] 经济分析重点领域 - 需要央行就生产率前景进行透明讨论 特别关注AI、生命科学和机器人技术的扩散效应[5] - 要求明确劳动力市场状况 区分供给问题与需求问题的相对影响程度[6] - 指出当前对劳动力市场的分析缺乏清晰度 需要更明确的判断[7] 政策环境与挑战 - 承认当前经济预测环境极具挑战性 但美联储应具备最强预测能力[4] - 指出在政府推行国内和全球经济重构的背景下 更需要美联储提供政策锚定[8] - 参考1980年代里根时期的经济重构 强调央行明确政策方向的重要性[9] 经济波动性来源 - 认为缺乏政策锚定会增加经济波动性风险 而非市场波动性[7] - 指出当前市场更愿意对企业下注 尽管主权层面存在混乱状况[7] - 质疑企业波动性的真正来源是美联储政策还是财政政策及关税措施[7]

[Music] Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. We are 30 minutes into the US trading day.Let's get to the three market catalyst we're watching this hour. First up, full coverage on the Fed as the central bank kicks off its rate cutting cycle. Plus, Nvidia and Intel striking a deal.We'll break down what it means for both chip companies. And we get a read on the state of the consumer as Olive Garden parent reports earnings. We'll break down those numbers.Plus, let's get a check of the markets right now. ...

My own guess is that policy's currently a little looser looking at all financial conditions than people view it as being, and that the current configuration, the balance of risks is a bit more tilted towards inflation rather than on employment. So I think we're a bit on the loose side with respect to monetary policy and monetary policy signalling, but that's very much a difference of degree. ...

公司/行业 * **公司**：摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 作为研究发布方，其经济学家团队（包括 Michael T Gapen, Sam D Coffin 等）对美联储政策进行解读 [3] * **行业**：研究内容聚焦于宏观经济、货币政策及美国联邦储备系统（美联储）的动向，这些是影响所有行业和金融市场的重要宏观因素 [1][3][4] 核心观点与论据 * 美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.0% - 4.25% [3][4] * 降息理由是基于对就业下行风险上升的判断，声明指出“就业增长已放缓”、失业率“略有上升”，且“就业下行风险有所增加”，此次降息反映了“风险平衡的转变” [3][4][8] * 最新的经济预测摘要（SEP）显示利率中值预测为今年还将有三次降息（总计75个基点），但内部存在分歧，投票结果为10比9，仅以一票优势维持此中值预测 [3][5] * 通胀预期被上调，2026年核心PCE通胀预测从2.4%上调至2.6%，预示着通胀将在更长时间内运行于2.0%的目标之上 [1][10] * 政策立场被解读为鸽派，因为美联储选择支持劳动力市场而容忍更高的通胀 [1][3] * 会议出现一位持不同意见者（Governor Miran），他倾向于本次会议降息50个基点，并且根据点阵图解读，他支持今年总计降息150个基点 [3][5] 其他重要内容 * 美联储对经济增长的预测小幅上调，2025年实际GDP（4Q/4Q）预测从1.4%上调至1.6%，2026年从1.6%上调至1.8% [10] * 对失业率的预测小幅下调，2026年失业率（4Q平均）预测从4.5%下调至4.4%，2027年从4.4%下调至4.3% [10] * 对未来利率路径的预测全面下调，2025年底联邦基金利率预测从3.9%下调至3.6%，2026年底从3.6%下调至3.4%，2027年底从3.4%下调至3.1% [10] * 与会者认为经济前景的不确定性普遍较高，并且对GDP增长的风险看法倾向于下行，而对失业率和通胀的风险看法则倾向于上行 [18][26][27]

September 17, 2025 08:27 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Press conference quick reaction: Toward a more neutral stance Although the Fed remains data dependent, we think it has begun a modest recalibration of its policy stance. Key Takeaways | M Press conference quick reaction: Although the Fed remains data dependent, we think it has begun | Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0571 +1 212 761-8573 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Stay right there because I will and we got a great great guest, a perfect guest actually to answer this because I'm going to say something too that that and and this is one of the reporters I can't remember who followed up with Jerome Pal and said you I'm confused. I was listening to Jerome Pal. I was a little confused.He didn't sound as focused as maybe I would have liked him to be. But doesn't matter what I think. Let's bring in Richard Fischer, former Dallas Federal Reserve president, also a CBC contribu ...

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images The Fed faces a challenge in addressing a scenario in which inflation remains high while the labor market weakens. Key Takeaways Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve is not guaranteed to repeat Wednesday's interest-rate cut. The Fed is caught between its missions to keep inflation low and employment high, and both are moving in the wrong direction. Powell said the Fed would cut rates further only if economic data indicated that was the right move, brushing of ...

My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen.At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interes ...