宏观经济与市场环境 - 2025年第三季度英国金融市场情绪和稳定性逐步改善，投资者开始摆脱初夏的动荡 [3] - 英国CPI在7月升至3.8%，随后在8月和9月趋于平稳，9月读数低于预期 [4] - 英国失业率在8月继续攀升至4.8%，通胀开始缓解，英国央行在8月降息25个基点至4.00% [4] - 消费者情绪虽仍脆弱但稳步改善，家庭储蓄率升高且家庭债务进一步减少 [5] - 本季度英国国债收益率稳步上升，市场对英国公共支出、财政空间和持续高通胀感到不安 [6] - 美国政府软化其极端贸易立场的举措受到全球股市欢迎，AIM指数本季度录得1.21%的正回报 [7] 公司财务业绩 - 截至2025年9月30日的三个月，未经审计的每股资产净值从36.43便士微增至36.46便士 [8] - 支付了截至2025年3月31日六个月的中期股息0.75便士及特别股息0.50便士，股东每股资产净值总回报为+1.28便士，相当于增长+3.51% [8] - 合格投资贡献了每股1.21便士的增长，非合格投资贡献了每股0.25便士的增长 [8] - 期后截至2025年10月31日，未经审计的每股资产净值下降至35.84便士，跌幅为1.70% [22] 合格投资组合表现 - Qureight股价上涨102.4%，估值增加256万英镑，其AI驱动的临床分析平台商业拓展强劲 [9] - Diaceutics股价上涨41.7%，估值增加98万英镑，上半年收入达1460万英镑，按固定汇率计算增长22%，三年复合年增长率为25% [9] - Diaceutics年经常性收入增长16%至1640万英镑，占总收入的61%，毛利率保持83%，调整后EBITDA转正为10万英镑 [10] - Fusion Antibodies股价上涨174.2%，估值增加87万英镑，2025财年收入达197万英镑，同比增长73%，亏损收窄 [11] - RC Fornax股价下跌62.5%，估值减少35万英镑，因下半年显著放缓及2025财年收入不确定性增加 [12] - Blackbird股价下跌62.2%，估值减少33万英镑，其核心云视频编辑业务EBITDA为正，但elevate.io扩展面临挑战 [13] - Animalcare股价下跌19.3%，估值减少33万英镑，上半年收入4380万英镑（增长18.5%）， underlying EBITDA增长39.5%至920万英镑 [14] 非合格投资组合表现 - IFSL Marlborough英国微盘成长基金上涨3.25%，贡献24万英镑；IFSL Marlborough特殊状况基金上涨3.41%，贡献23万英镑 [15] - 非合格投资组合中，WH Smith因美国旅游业务会计问题导致利润高估而下跌，公司随后平仓该头寸 [15] - 国防供应商Chemring和工业阀门控制制造商Rotork因终端市场需求强劲而表现积极 [15] - 直接持股价值减少23万英镑，固定收益组合回报23万英镑，Vaneck黄金ETF价值增加44万英镑 [15] 投资组合结构与交易活动 - 公司投资比例达98.98%，远高于英国税务海关总署规定的风险投资信托投资测试要求 [16] - 按市值计算，合格投资权重从53.7%增至54.1% [16] - 本季度市场沉寂，无新的VCT合格IPO，过去12个月仅有两宗，仅有一笔对AIM上市公司Verici的后续股权投资 [17] - 本季度完成三项完全退出（Aquis Exchange, K3 Business Technology, TrakM8），并减持了股价表现强劲的Cohort [18] - 对两只IFSL Marlborough基金、非合格股票及ETF的配置无重大变化，分别占公司净资产的10.9%、6.3%和0.9% [18] - 对非合格投资级公司债券的进一步投资使其配置从净资产的13.4%提升至15.6%，现金相应减少至净资产的12.2% [19] 公司股份回购与股价 - 公司本季度以平均每股33.31便士的价格回购了370万股自有股份 [21] - 股价从34.10便士升至34.40便士，截至2025年9月30日，股价较最后公布的每股资产净值折价3.83% [21]

Gains in some markets, including Hungary, Brazil and Egypt are topping 20%. A rare turn in global inflation trends is expected to inject fresh momentum into this year’s rally in emerging-market bonds. Most Read from Bloomberg Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. and Ninety One Plc are among the money managers positioning for further gains in emerging local-currency debt, on a view that central banks will have room to cut interest rates faster than in the developed world. It would add another dimens ...

Asian stocks advanced on Monday after the U.S. Senate voted 60-40 to end the longest-running government shutdown, which entered its 40th day on Sunday.The bipartisan legislation, which would fund most federal agencies through January and guarantee back pay for federal employees affected by the closure, would now go to the House of Representatives for consideration.Sentiment was also underpinned after weekend data showed China's producer price deflation eased in October while consumer prices returned to pos ...

U.S. stock futures climbed early Monday, as investors weighed two major developments out of Washington: a significant step toward ending the record-long government shutdown and a surprise stimulus proposal from President Donald Trump.Government Reopening Hopes Push Futures HigherFutures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all pointed to a positive open, reflecting renewed market optimism. This sentiment follows a key vote in the Senate on Sunday to advance a funding bill aimed at ending the 40-day go ...

涉及的行业与公司 * 行业为中国宏观经济 涉及通胀、生产者价格、大宗商品及多个制造业领域[1] * 公司为摩根士丹利 报告由其亚洲团队的经济学家撰写[5] 核心观点与论据 **10月通胀数据反弹** * 10月CPI同比回升至0.2% 高于9月的-0.3%和市场预期的0%[8] * 核心CPI同比升至1.2% 高于9月的1.0%[8] * PPI环比微升至0.1% 前值为0%[8] **CPI反弹的主要驱动因素** * 食品价格因节假日效应呈现强于季节性的增长 月环比年化增速达5.2% 主要由水果和蔬菜推动[2] * 服务价格走强推动核心CPI月环比年化增速改善至1.7% 9月为0.9% 同样受假日效应影响[2] * 黄金价格进一步上涨 对1.2%的核心CPI同比增幅贡献了0.4个百分点 9月贡献为0.3个百分点[2] **PPI改善的驱动因素** * 非铁金属是主要推动力 特别是铜价 其强劲势头反映了印度尼西亚铜矿事故造成的供应限制以及人工智能普及带来的强劲结构性全球需求[3] * 消费品中的“日常杂货用品”价格快速上涨 月环比增速0.7%为15年高点 可能反映了早期“双十一”促销带来的短暂强劲需求[3] **部分价格领域的疲软表现** * 核心商品价格边际冷却 以家用电器为首 月环比年化下降6%[2] * 耐用消费品定价依然疲软 PPI同比为-3.2%[6][8] **通胀前景展望** * 10月数据确认了基础势头稳定但温和 上游更自律的生产为价格提供底部支撑 但疲软的最终需求限制了上行空间[4] * 预计直至年底通胀同比将基本保持稳定 因为低基数效应逐渐消退[4][8] 其他重要内容 * 生产者价格总体稳定 大宗商品价格因生产更自律获得支撑[8] * 采购（投入）价格同比为-2.7% 环比为0.1%[6] * 采掘和原材料工业PPI同比分别为-7.8%和-2.5% 显示上游压力仍较大[6]

With high inflation and economic uncertainty all around, you may be wondering where to invest your money. The annual inflation rate for the 12 months ending in August 2025 was 2.9%, as per the U.S. Inflation Calculator. But the dollar’s purchasing power has fallen significantly over time. From 2020 to 2025 alone, the cumulative inflation rate was 25.2%. That means something that cost $100 five years ago would now cost $125.20. Read More: 13 Cheap Cryptocurrencies With the Highest Potential Upside for You L ...

行业宏观环境 - 通胀和失业问题导致餐饮行业竞争加剧，消费者在外出就餐方面支出更趋谨慎 [1] - 快餐行业（QSR）承受了消费者支出收缩的主要冲击，其中汉堡连锁店受到的影响尤为严重 [2] - 行业面临显著的劳动力与食品成本上涨压力，91%的受访者报告食品成本上升，超过一半经历1%至5%的涨幅 [5] 公司经营挑战 - 公司美国客流量急剧下降，原因是消费者重新规划预算 [2] - 公司以品质为导向的定位在成本压力下转为劣势，正受到休闲餐厅价格竞争的压力 [3] - 休闲餐厅（如Chili's）通过降价促销积极争夺客源，模糊了休闲餐饮与快餐的界限，侵蚀了公司的护城河 [7] 公司财务与运营状况 - 公司计划于2026年关闭数百家门店 [6] - 公司2024年全系统销售额为145亿美元，同比增长3.1% [8] - 公司全球门店总数7,334家，其中约6,000家位于美国，员工总数约22.5万人 [8]

Still, following the Fed’s rate reduction in October, Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut wasn’t assured. For policymakers focused on the potential for inflation to re-accelerate, the absence of official figures is likely gives them further reason to hold next month.“Even if the government were to reopen, it’s unlikely the Bureau of Labor Statistics would be able to collect and process data for both the October and November CPI reports ahead of the December FOMC meeting. We think October’s figures would ...

The market's ability to hold or break decisively below the 50-day moving averages across major indexes represents the week's most critical technical consideration, with implications for whether the recent pullback represents healthy consolidation or the beginning of a more substantial correction. Friday's late-session rally off lows provided some encouragement that buyers are willing to defend key support levels, but follow-through strength early this week will be crucial for confirming that bullish momentu ...

In my opinion, when trying to determine where yields may be going, one should start at the cornerstone for rates, which is the macroeconomic and Fed landscape. Our baseline case is for the U.S. economy to continue on a modest/moderate growth path, with inflation proving to be sticky but not yet impacted in a meaningful way by tariffs. The Fed is still highlighting the potential employment risks of their dual mandate, but some voting members appear to be throwing some caution for another rate cut this year. ...