Markets overheat Michael Burry and Warren Buffett. Photo by BeInCrypto Michael Burry and Warren Buffett, two icons of market caution, are flashing red signals for November. Burry is once again betting against Wall Street, while Buffett’s favorite valuation gauge just hit its highest level in history. Together, their moves are sending a powerful warning that financial markets may be entering dangerous territory, with crypto already feeling the pain. Michael Burry’s “Wildest” 13F Yet The Short Bear, a pse ...

Should investors follow Buffett's lead in hunkering down?Warren Buffett steps down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.50%) (BRK.B 0.44%) in less than two months. Don't expect any stock market predictions from the legendary investor during his remaining time at the helm of the huge conglomerate. That's not his style.However, Buffett's actions often speak louder than his words. And what he's doing -- and not doing -- could be worrisome to many investors. Here are three signs that Buffett might be bracing f ...

The Oracle of Omaha has sold more stocks than he's purchased for a staggering 12 consecutive quarters.For the better part of the last six decades, Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A 0.50%)(BRK.B 0.39%) billionaire CEO Warren Buffett has made a habit of outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) on a total return basis, including dividends. Whereas Wall Street's most-followed index has returned in the neighborhood of 45,500%, with dividends, over the last 60 years, the Oracle of Omaha has overseen a cumu ...

Eric’s risk/reward market framework… why it means he won’t buy today’s AI darlings… nosebleed market valuations… a check-in on our exit plan… Luke’s energy investment playbookVIEW IN BROWSERI don’t sit here today and go, “Nvidia’s a terrible stock.” It’s not a terrible stock. It’s been a great stock. It’s a great company run by great people…But other companies, in my opinion, offer vastly superior potential reward versus the risk than Nvidia does today.That comes from our macro investing expert, Eric Fry, o ...

沃伦·巴菲特退休与公司领导层变动 - 沃伦·巴菲特宣布将于今年年底从伯克希尔哈撒韦CEO职位退休 [3] - 巴菲特自1965年担任CEO以来，伯克希尔A类股累计回报率接近5,840,000%，同期标普500指数总回报（含股息）低于46,000% [2] - 尽管预定继任者Greg Abel很可能延续巴菲特的经营方式，但市场因巴菲特领导而赋予公司的估值溢价在其退休后可能消失 [9] 华尔街罕见卖出评级及其依据 - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods分析师Meyer Shields将伯克希尔A类股评级从“与大市持平”下调至“逊于大市”（相当于卖出），目标价从740,000美元降至700,000美元 [6] - 评级下调基于一系列潜在风险，包括巴菲特退休带来的接班风险、GEICO汽车保险利润率可能走弱、特朗普关税政策带来的经济不确定性、清洁能源税收抵免取消对伯克希尔哈撒韦能源业务的冲击，以及利率下降对保险和银行净利息收入的影响 [7][9][11] 公司面临的最大风险：估值过高 - 伯克希尔哈撒韦股票面临的最大短期风险是其自身估值以及部分核心投资组合的估值过高 [14][24] - 巴菲特自2024年6月起停止股票回购，此前连续24个季度（2018年7月至2024年6月）总计回购近780亿美元股票，显示其认为当前股价不再具备内在吸引力 [16][18] - 伯克希尔股价相对于账面价值的溢价从巴菲特回购时期的30%-50%飙升至近期的60%-80% [18] 整体市场估值环境 - “巴菲特指标”（美股总市值/GDP）本周创下超过225%的历史新高，远高于1970年以来约85%的平均水平 [19] - 标普500的席勒市盈率（CAPE Ratio）在10月28日达到41.18，接近互联网泡沫破裂前44.19的历史最高点，而其自1871年以来的平均值为17.29 [20][22] - 伯克希尔最大持仓苹果公司的追踪12个月市盈率接近41倍，较其五年平均市盈率有36%的溢价，且其增长引擎在过去三年已完全停滞 [23] 公司财务与市场表现 - 伯克希尔B类股当前股价为478.68美元，市值达10320亿美元 [9] - 巴菲特已连续11个季度（2022年10月至2025年6月）净卖出股票，总规模达1774亿美元 [15]

沃伦·巴菲特投资生涯与市场背景 - 沃伦·巴菲特在过去近六十年间的投资表现远超标普500指数 [1] - 标普500指数包括股息在内的累计总回报超过45,100%，而伯克希尔哈撒韦的A类股在60年间累计回报超过5,960,000% [2] - 巴菲特计划于2025年底退休，将CEO职位移交给他指定的继任者格雷格·阿贝尔 [3] - 继任者阿贝尔将接手管理一个市值超过3100亿美元的投资组合 [5] - 在昂贵的股市中，巴菲特已连续11个季度净卖出股票，累计净卖出额达1774亿美元 [9] 巴菲特的投资原则 - 巴菲特的核心投资原则包括长期持有、寻找具有清晰竞争优势、强大管理团队和丰厚资本回报计划的公司 [6] - 巴菲特极少偏离其投资原则，但曾于2022年作为套利机会投资动视暴雪，这是一次罕见的短期操作 [7] - 巴菲特坚持估值纪律，拒绝在估值过高时部署资本 [8] - 被称为“巴菲特指标”的股市总市值与GDP之比在2025年10月达到223%的历史新高，表明当前市场估值昂贵，难以找到好交易 [8] 对天狼星XM控股公司的投资分析 - 巴菲特在2025年7月31日至8月4日期间以每股21.16美元的平均价格买入5,030,425股天狼星XM股票，总投资额近1.065亿美元 [12] - 伯克希尔已累计持有128,807,117股天狼星XM股票，占其流通股比例的37%以上 [13] - 天狼星XM是唯一获得授权的卫星广播运营商，拥有订阅定价权这一竞争优势 [14][15] - 公司2025年上半年广告收入占净销售额比例低于20%，而订阅收入占比近77%，收入结构使其能在各种经济环境下保持稳定 [16][17] - 公司拥有稳健的资本回报计划，包括适度的股票回购和股息率为5%的股息支付 [18] - 天狼星XM股票的远期市盈率仅为7倍，较其过去五年平均远期市盈率12.8倍有45%的折价，估值处于历史低位 [19]

股市表现 - 2025年第三季度纳斯达克综合指数创下27次新高标普500指数创下24次新高道琼斯工业平均指数创下12次新高 [1] 市场估值水平 - 巴菲特指标即股市总市值与GDP之比显示当前市场总市值达到GDP的363%远超115%的过估值阈值 [2][3] - 当前估值水平甚至高于1990年代末互联网泡沫破裂前该指标达到的212% [3] - 人工智能领域总投资规模估计是互联网泡沫破裂时对互联网公司投资规模的17倍 [4] 行业与公司集中度 - 市场表现高度集中于“科技七巨头”其中苹果和Meta两家公司在2023年和2024年贡献了标普500指数超过一半的涨幅 [4] - 2025年人工智能股票回报率是整体股市回报率的两倍 [4]

The Oracle of Omaha hasn't purchased shares of his favorite stock in more than a year, which brings stock valuations squarely into focus.In roughly 10 weeks, one of Wall Street's greatest investors will ride off into the proverbial sunset.For the last 60 years, billionaire Warren Buffett has dazzled investors with his ability to spot amazing deals hiding in plain sight. Since taking over as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B) in the mid-1960s, the aptly dubbed Oracle of Omaha has overseen a ...

Key Points The S&P 500 is on the cusp of extending a momentous streak. Historically, stocks have made big moves in the following year after such strong momentum. However, there's no way to know for sure how the S&P 500 will perform next year. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Is past and present stock market performance a good predictor of how the market will perform in the future? It can be sometimes. Otherwise, no one would bother incorporating historical stock data into models that ...

标普500指数估值水平 - 标普500指数交易于泡沫化估值水平 部分估值指标处于历史最高水平 例如巴菲特指标 [1] - 席勒市盈率约为40倍 略低于2000年互联网泡沫时期的水平 [1]