Eric’s risk/reward market framework… why it means he won’t buy today’s AI darlings… nosebleed market valuations… a check-in on our exit plan… Luke’s energy investment playbookVIEW IN BROWSERI don’t sit here today and go, “Nvidia’s a terrible stock.” It’s not a terrible stock. It’s been a great stock. It’s a great company run by great people…But other companies, in my opinion, offer vastly superior potential reward versus the risk than Nvidia does today.That comes from our macro investing expert, Eric Fry, o ...

The Oracle of Omaha's retirement at the end of this year isn't the biggest concern for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.Though investing on Wall Street offers no certainties, seeing Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B) billionaire CEO Warren Buffett run laps around the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) in the return column over long periods has been pretty close to a guarantee.Since the Oracle of Omaha ascended to the CEO role in 1965, he's overseen a cumulative return in Berkshire's Class A sha ...

沃伦·巴菲特投资生涯与市场背景 - 沃伦·巴菲特在过去近六十年间的投资表现远超标普500指数 [1] - 标普500指数包括股息在内的累计总回报超过45,100%，而伯克希尔哈撒韦的A类股在60年间累计回报超过5,960,000% [2] - 巴菲特计划于2025年底退休，将CEO职位移交给他指定的继任者格雷格·阿贝尔 [3] - 继任者阿贝尔将接手管理一个市值超过3100亿美元的投资组合 [5] - 在昂贵的股市中，巴菲特已连续11个季度净卖出股票，累计净卖出额达1774亿美元 [9] 巴菲特的投资原则 - 巴菲特的核心投资原则包括长期持有、寻找具有清晰竞争优势、强大管理团队和丰厚资本回报计划的公司 [6] - 巴菲特极少偏离其投资原则，但曾于2022年作为套利机会投资动视暴雪，这是一次罕见的短期操作 [7] - 巴菲特坚持估值纪律，拒绝在估值过高时部署资本 [8] - 被称为“巴菲特指标”的股市总市值与GDP之比在2025年10月达到223%的历史新高，表明当前市场估值昂贵，难以找到好交易 [8] 对天狼星XM控股公司的投资分析 - 巴菲特在2025年7月31日至8月4日期间以每股21.16美元的平均价格买入5,030,425股天狼星XM股票，总投资额近1.065亿美元 [12] - 伯克希尔已累计持有128,807,117股天狼星XM股票，占其流通股比例的37%以上 [13] - 天狼星XM是唯一获得授权的卫星广播运营商，拥有订阅定价权这一竞争优势 [14][15] - 公司2025年上半年广告收入占净销售额比例低于20%，而订阅收入占比近77%，收入结构使其能在各种经济环境下保持稳定 [16][17] - 公司拥有稳健的资本回报计划，包括适度的股票回购和股息率为5%的股息支付 [18] - 天狼星XM股票的远期市盈率仅为7倍，较其过去五年平均远期市盈率12.8倍有45%的折价，估值处于历史低位 [19]

股市表现 - 2025年第三季度纳斯达克综合指数创下27次新高标普500指数创下24次新高道琼斯工业平均指数创下12次新高 [1] 市场估值水平 - 巴菲特指标即股市总市值与GDP之比显示当前市场总市值达到GDP的363%远超115%的过估值阈值 [2][3] - 当前估值水平甚至高于1990年代末互联网泡沫破裂前该指标达到的212% [3] - 人工智能领域总投资规模估计是互联网泡沫破裂时对互联网公司投资规模的17倍 [4] 行业与公司集中度 - 市场表现高度集中于“科技七巨头”其中苹果和Meta两家公司在2023年和2024年贡献了标普500指数超过一半的涨幅 [4] - 2025年人工智能股票回报率是整体股市回报率的两倍 [4]

The Oracle of Omaha hasn't purchased shares of his favorite stock in more than a year, which brings stock valuations squarely into focus.In roughly 10 weeks, one of Wall Street's greatest investors will ride off into the proverbial sunset.For the last 60 years, billionaire Warren Buffett has dazzled investors with his ability to spot amazing deals hiding in plain sight. Since taking over as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B) in the mid-1960s, the aptly dubbed Oracle of Omaha has overseen a ...

Key Points The S&P 500 is on the cusp of extending a momentous streak. Historically, stocks have made big moves in the following year after such strong momentum. However, there's no way to know for sure how the S&P 500 will perform next year. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Is past and present stock market performance a good predictor of how the market will perform in the future? It can be sometimes. Otherwise, no one would bother incorporating historical stock data into models that ...

标普500指数估值水平 - 标普500指数交易于泡沫化估值水平 部分估值指标处于历史最高水平 例如巴菲特指标 [1] - 席勒市盈率约为40倍 略低于2000年互联网泡沫时期的水平 [1]

Key Points In 2025, the S&P 500 could potentially earn total returns of more than 20% for the third straight year. The last time this happened was in the late 1990s, right before the dot-com bubble burst. One popular stock market metric says investors could be "playing with fire," but there's a big caveat. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Despite being off to a relatively shaky start this year, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has been on fire since it surged out of its bear market in l ...

Key Points The Buffett Indicator, a popular stock market indicator, suggests we may be in the late stages of this bull market. However, whether a recession is imminent is still unclear. No matter what the future holds, it's wise to start preparing for the worst just in case. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Despite some rough patches earlier this year, the stock market has been thriving throughout most of 2025. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is up by more than 14% as of this writing, ...

iREIT+HOYA Capital is the premier income-focused investing service on Seeking Alpha. Our focus is on income-producing asset classes that offer the opportunity for sustainable portfolio income , diversification , and inflation hedging . Get started with a Free Two-Week Trial and take a look at our top ideas across our exclusive income-focused portfolios.It’s common knowledge by now that the market is pricey, especially as the Buffett Indicator has surpassed 200%. This ratio is measured by taking the total US ...