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Why Powell Commentary Might Be Second Most Important Thing Tomorrow
Youtube· 2025-09-16 20:38
Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior market correspondent, right away to help set up the action today. All right, all eyes on the Fed today, KG. So, let's talk about it, right.We know what the expectation is, but really it's also about the optics of who's at the table now. Uh, tell us kind of where things stand, uh, especially for people who aren't caught up on Steven Myron. Yeah.Well, we did see Stephen Meyer uh get uh confirmed by the Senate yesterday uh pretty much on party lines. So, he will be a temporar ...
Walker & Dunlop CEO says investors need clarity on who decides the fate of Fannie and Freddie
CNBC· 2025-09-16 20:05
watch nowA version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.The annual Zelman Housing Summit, is a small but elite conference of public and private homebuilders, mortgage lenders, investors and f ...
US consumers are feeling the stress of inflation, interest rates, report shows
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-16 20:04
By Nupur Anand NEW YORK (Reuters) -Some U.S. consumers are showing increased signs of stress as inflation and higher interest rates are affecting affordability and leading to financial strain on borrowers, credit scoring company Fair Isaac Corporation, widely known as FICO, said on Tuesday. The overall national FICO score has dipped slightly by about 2 points. About 38.1% of the population scored between 600 and 749 points in 2021, while only 33.8% of the population ranked in these middle ranges in 2025. ...
Trump's Fed pressure campaign will lead to higher inflation, weaker growth, according to CNBC survey
CNBC· 2025-09-16 19:59
U.S. President Donald Trump passes a document to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to fact-check the numbers during a tour of the Federal Reserve Board building, which is currently undergoing renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025. Kent Nishimura | ReutersPresident Donald Trump's actions relative to the Federal Reserve amount to an effort to limit or eliminate the central bank's independence, according to 82% of respondents to the September CNBC Fed Survey.Those actions, according to majori ...
Circle Stock Is Trending Monday: What's Going On?
Benzinga· 2025-09-16 03:50
Circle Internet Group Inc CRCL is trading higher on Monday as bullish momentum was supported by increased trading volume and positive sector trends.CRCL is delivering impressive returns. Get the market research here.What To Know: Wall Street analysts continue to take notice, with one notable recommendation being a Buy rating from Needham, which set a price target of $250, reflecting confidence in the company’s potential growth prospects amid changing market conditions.Not all sentiments are bullish, as Circ ...
Trinity Capital: High-Quality BDC, But Waiting For A Pullback (NASDAQ:TRIN)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-09-13 01:08
The landscape for Business Development Companies is becoming more tricky as interest rates remain elevated. Many BDCs are struggling to grow their earnings and NAV since the higher interest rate environment makes it more costly forFinancial analyst by day and a seasoned investor by passion, I've been involved in the world of investing for over 15 years and honed my skills in analyzing lucrative opportunities within the market.I specialize in uncovering high quality dividend stocks and other assets that offe ...
The Bond Market Is On A Collision Course With Stagflation
Seeking Alpha· 2025-09-12 01:15
Michael Kramer leads the investing group Reading the Markets, where he helps a devoted following of members to better understand what is driving trading and where the market is likely heading, both the short and long-term. Features of the investing group include: daily written commentary and videos analyzing the driving factors behind price action; general macro trend education to help members make well-informed decisions based on market conditions, interest rates, currency movements and how they all intera ...
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Jim Cramer Discusses Stock In The Context Of Interest Rates
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-11 22:53
We recently published 13 Stocks Jim Cramer Discussed During His Historic Morning Appearance. The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer recently discussed. The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) is a frequent topic of discussion on Cramer’s morning show. Year-to-date, the stock has gained 6.4% to lag the S&P 500’s 11% in gains. The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD)’s latest earnings report, which was released in August, saw the firm’s CEO comment about a “deferral mindset” in consumers who are strugg ...
European Central Bank (:) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-09-11 21:47
**欧洲央行2025年9月货币政策会议纪要分析** 涉及的机构 * 欧洲央行(ECB)及其管理委员会[1][2][3][11] 核心货币政策决定与立场 * 欧洲央行决定维持三个关键利率不变[2][11] * 通胀目前处于2%的中期目标附近 对通胀前景的评估基本不变[2] * 货币政策立场将遵循数据依赖和逐次会议决策的方法 不预先承诺特定的利率路径[3][11][15] * 决心确保通胀在中期内稳定在2%的目标 准备好在授权范围内调整所有工具以实现此目标[3][11] 经济与增长预测 * 2025年上半年经济累计增长0.7% 得益于国内需求的韧性 一季度增长强劲 二季度增长较弱 部分反映了预期关税上调前国际贸易的前置及后续影响的反转[4] * 2025年经济增长预测从6月的0.9%上调至1.2% 2026年增长预测小幅下调至1.0% 2027年预测维持1.3%不变[2] * 调查指标显示制造业和服务业持续增长 表明经济存在积极的潜在动力[4] * 劳动力市场仍是优势来源 7月失业率为6.2% 尽管劳动力需求正在软化[4] * 大量的政府基础设施和国防支出应能支撑投资[5] * 更高的关税、更强的欧元和加剧的全球竞争预计将在今年剩余时间抑制增长 但这些逆风的影响应在明年减弱[5] 通胀与价格动态 * 8月年通胀率微升至2.1%(7月为2.0%)[6] * 能源价格通胀为-1.9%(7月为-2.4%) 食品价格通胀降至3.2%(7月为3.3%) 剔除能源和食品的通胀率稳定在2.3%[6] * 服务通胀微降至3.1%(7月为3.2%) 商品通胀维持在0.8%不变[6] * 员工人均补偿年增长率在第二季度为3.9% 低于上一季度的4.0%和去年同期的4.8%[7] * 前瞻性指标表明工资增长将进一步放缓 加之生产率提高 将有助于抑制国内价格压力[7] * 新的员工预测:2025年整体通胀平均为2.1% 2026年为1.7% 2027年为1.9%[2] * 剔除能源和食品的通胀预计2025年平均为2.4% 2026年为1.9% 2027年为1.8%[2][7] * 食品通胀预计从2025年的2.9%降至2026年和2027年的2.3%[7] * 能源价格通胀预计仍将波动但在预测期内上升 部分原因是欧盟排放交易体系II于2027年启动[7] * 大多数长期通胀预期指标继续维持在2%左右[8] 风险评估 * 经济增长风险变得更加平衡[8][16][51] * 近期贸易协定减少了不确定性 但贸易关系的再度恶化可能进一步抑制出口并拖累投资和消费[8] * 金融市场情绪恶化可能导致融资条件收紧、风险厌恶情绪加剧和增长减弱[8] * 地缘政治紧张局势(如俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争和中东悲剧性冲突)仍是主要的 uncertainty 来源[8] * 高于预期的国防和基础设施支出以及提高生产率的改革将促进增长[8] * 商业信心的改善可能刺激私人投资[8] * 由于全球贸易政策环境仍然波动 通胀前景比往常更加不确定[9] * 更强的欧元可能使通胀降幅超出预期[9] * 全球供应链碎片化可能推高进口价格并加剧国内经济产能限制 从而推高通胀[9] * 极端天气事件和更广泛的气候危机展开可能使食品价格上涨超出预期[9] 金融与货币状况 * 短期市场利率上升 而长期利率基本保持不变[10] * 过去的降息继续降低企业借贷成本 7月新企业贷款平均利率从6月的3.6%降至3.5%[10] * 发行市场债务的成本维持在3.5%不变[10] * 对企业贷款增长2.8% 略高于6月 公司债券发行增长从3.4%升至4.1%[10] * 7月新抵押贷款平均利率再次维持在3.3%不变 抵押贷款增长从2.2%加快至2.4%[10] * 量化紧缩(QT)按预告进行 影响非常有限 主要货币政策工具是利率[33] * 欧元区主权债券市场有序 流动性良好 利差在过去两年已大幅收窄[29][34] 其他重要内容 * 管理委员会一致决定维持利率不变[16] * 强调在当今地缘政治环境下迫切需要加强欧元区及其经济 财政和结构政策应使经济更具生产力、竞争力和韧性[5] * 关键是要按照雄心勃勃的时间表完成储蓄与投资联盟和银行业联盟 并迅速为可能引入数字欧元建立立法框架[6] * 欢迎奥地利新行长Martin Kocher和保加利亚央行行长Dimitar Radev(自2025年1月1日起保加利亚将加入欧元区)加入管理委员会[36] * 强调保加利亚加入欧元区将带来稳定性和便利性 并提醒注意货币转换期间可能出现的价格操纵问题[37][38][39][40] * 传输保护工具(TPI)的设计旨在应对无序、无根据的市场动态 其使用有一套标准、市场评估和管理委员会的自由裁量权 本次会议未讨论TPI[32][42][47] * 强调所使用数据的完整性很高[44] * 指出美国经济放缓对欧元区的影响关键在于贸易关系及其后果[65] * 下一次新闻发布会将于10月30日在佛罗伦萨举行[66]
David Rubenstein: The economy is in reasonable shape
Youtube· 2025-09-11 19:57
Joining us right now is our special guest, David Rubenstein. He's co-founder and co-chairman of the Carile Group. He's also the owner of the Baltimore Orioles.And David, there are so many directions we could go with you. I was thinking about starting with inflation because we have a consumer price index coming up in a about an hour and a half. But you sat down and started talking about some numbers that you looked back.We're celebrating our 30th anniversary and you looked back 30 years ago. Uh what struck y ...