A lot of numbers came out today, as the government gears up after the shutdown. One of the biggest themes in the jobs report for October and November was the continued restructuring of the economy, where Joe Biden’s big government socialism is coming to an end. And President Trump’s re-privatization continues ahead. So far this year, federal jobs have fallen by roughly 270,000, while private jobs have increased nearly 700,000. Also related to Trump policies, native-born jobs are up some 2.7 million. While f ...

Stocks moved to the upside at the start of trading on Monday but quickly gave back ground early in the session. The major averages pulled back well off their early highs and spent much of the rest of the day lingering near the unchanged line.The major averages eventually ended the day modestly lower. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 137.76 points or 0.6 percent to 23,057.41, the S&P 500 dipped 10.90 points or 0.2 percent to 6,816.51 and the Dow edged down 41.49 points or 0.1 percent at 48,416.56.The initia ...

Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic news is negative for global growth prospects. China's Nov industrial production unexpectedly eased to +4.8% y/y from +4.9% y/y in Oct, versus expectations of an increase to +5.0% y/y. Also, China's Nov retail sales rose +1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.9% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 2.75 years. In addition, China's new home prices fell 0.39% m/m, marking the 30th consecutive month of declines.Today’s US economic news was mixed for stocks. The Dec E ...

After failing to sustain an initial move to the upside, stocks have shown a lack of direction over the course of the trading session on Monday. The major averages have pulled back well off their highs of the session and have recently been bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line.Currently, the major averages are narrowly mixed. While the S&P 500 is up 7.97 points or 0.1 percent at 6,835.38, the Nasdaq is down 10.22 points or less than a tenth of a percent at 23,184.95 and the Dow is down 14.31 poi ...

Today’s CD rates still hover well above the national average. The Federal Reserve reduced its target interest rate three times in 2024 and recently announced its third rate cut of 2025. This has a ripple effect on deposit account rates, which means now could be your last chance to lock in today's high rates with a certificate of deposit (CD). Here’s a look at today’s best CD rates and where you can find the best offers. Best CD rates today As of December 15, 2025, the highest CD rate is 4.15% APY. This r ...

纪要涉及的行业或公司 * 全球宏观经济与主要央行（美联储、日本央行、欧洲央行、英国央行等）[1][2][3][6][7][9][11] * 美国国债市场及利率市场[1][2][3][6][13] * 全球股票市场，特别是美国科技股与半导体行业（PHLX半导体指数、标普IT指数）[6] * 日本国债市场及日本财务省[1][3][6][7] * 欧元区债券市场（德国国债、欧元互换）[7] * 新兴市场国家：智利、哥伦比亚、南非、捷克、巴西、中国、马来西亚、泰国、印度、土耳其等[9][11][18][20] * 外汇市场（美元指数DXY、主要及新兴市场货币）[1][3][6][9][11][15] * 大宗商品市场（黄金、WTI原油）[15] 核心观点和论据 **1 美联储政策与领导层变动引发利率曲线陡峭化** * 美国长期利率在缺乏直接催化剂的情况下遭抛售，可能受到美联储官员关于通胀和央行独立性评论的推动[6] * 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比解释其反对本周降息的决定，但其长期展望比反对意见所暗示的更偏鸽派，预计2026年降息次数多于点阵图中值[9] * 费城联储主席保尔森强调美联储“信誉”的重要性，以维持投资者对其独立性的信心[6] * 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克倾向于维持限制性利率以遏制通胀[11] * 旧金山联储主席戴利支持降息，但同时对劳动力市场和通胀表示担忧[11] * 前总统特朗普考虑任命沃什或哈西特为下一任美联储主席，并希望就利率设定接受咨询，这可能引发对美联储反应机制的质疑[1][3][6] * 市场对哈西特获提名的隐含概率从近期高点85%降至60%以下，沃什的几率升至35%[6] * 特朗普建议一年后利率应为“1%甚至更低”[6] * 美国10年期国债收益率上升2.7个基点至4.19%，30年期国债收益率上升4.5个基点[1][3][13] **2 对AI盈利能力的担忧导致风险资产抛售** * 风险情绪恶化，标普500指数下跌超过1%[6] * 半导体行业（PHLX指数：-5%）和IT股（标普IT指数：-3%）因AI基础设施项目延迟而领跌[6] * 防御性板块如必需消费品（+1%）表现突出[6] * G10外汇走势未显示明确的风险偏好，风险敏感型和避险货币波动均相对温和（美元指数DXY：+0.1%）[6] **3 日本利率曲线因国债发行计划预期而趋平** * 日本财务省与一级交易商会议暗示可能减少超长期国债发行，并可能增加2-10年期国债发行[1][3][6] * 东京早盘，长期日本国债在周四20年期国债拍卖稳健和隔夜美债上涨后反弹约3个基点[6] * 10年期以下日本国债的抛售带来曲线趋平压力，并在东京晚间一级交易商会议后加速[6] * 美元/日元对媒体关于日本央行不会在下周决议前公布中性利率预估的报道反应平淡[6] **4 全球利率走势与主要经济体动态** * 欧元区收益率曲线随全球利率陡峭化（30年期德国国债：-3个基点），但幅度小于美国和英国[7] * 欧元互换10s30s段收窄超过1个基点，反映曲线陡峭趋势[7] * 荷兰国家财政机构发布2026年融资展望，预计总发行量为500亿欧元，并暗示将降低平均期限目标[7] * 英国10年期国债收益率上升3.3个基点[13] **5 新兴市场重点事件与货币政策** * **智利**：总统决选前利率遭抛售，候选人卡斯特（支持率58%）与哈拉（支持率42%）在经济政策上存在分歧，结果将影响铜锂生产和外资流入[9] * **巴西**：央行将推迟任命两位新董事至2026年，1月降息可能性未被排除（市场定价约18个基点），但经济学家预计将等到3月[11] * **中国**：中国人民银行承诺维持适度宽松的货币政策，强调需“灵活高效”运用利率和存款准备金率工具[11] * **南非**：因通胀预期持续下降（BER通胀预期：3.7%；前值：3.8%），收益率曲线全线下行（2年期：-2个基点）[9] * **哥伦比亚**：未经证实的报告称政府考虑要求本地养老基金减持外国资产，这可能引发大量国债发行并挤压流动性[9] 其他重要内容 **1 关键经济数据发布** * **日本**：12月日本央行短观调查大型制造业景气指数（预期+15点）和非制造业景气指数（预期+36点），结果不太可能影响预期的12月加息[17] * **中国**：11月社会融资规模增量2.4885万亿元人民币，M2货币供应同比增长8.0%[18][19] * **印度**：11月CPI同比上涨0.71%[20] * **马来西亚**：10月工业生产同比增长6.0%[18] * **泰国**：12月5日外汇储备2758亿美元[18] **2 交易策略** * **G4更智能（Beta）交易策略**：基于5日与20日移动平均线交叉的动量策略，用于交易G4国家10年期国债期货[22][23][24] * **美国假日交易策略**：基于美国10年期国债期货在特定假日前后的历史价格模式进行交易，自1987年以来无亏损年份[26][27] **3 市场数据概览** * **利率**：美国、德国、英国、日本各期限国债收益率及变动[13] * **通胀**：美国、德国、英国、日本各期限通胀保值债券盈亏平衡通胀率[14] * **宏观**：主要货币、新兴市场货币汇率、股指及大宗商品价格[15] * **央行定价**：市场对美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行、日本央行未来利率路径的预期[16]

美联储主席鲍威尔的任期目标与继任问题 - 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调其剩余任期内的核心目标是确保经济状况良好 即控制通胀和维持强劲劳动力市场 具体希望将通胀率控制在2%并保持劳动力市场强劲[1][2] - 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束 其本人拒绝讨论个人政治遗产及任期结束后是否留任美联储理事会 并称目前专注于完成主席任期内的剩余工作[4] - 关于继任者问题 鲍威尔拒绝置评 而前总统特朗普已公开表示正在物色下一任美联储主席人选 并称其两位主要候选人是前美联储理事凯文·沃什和国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特[4][6] 美国政治对美联储的影响 - 当被问及特朗普公开物色新主席是否影响其工作时 鲍威尔直接回答“没有”[6] - 特朗普阐述了对下一任美联储主席的期望 寻求一位在利率政策上“诚实”的人选 并认为美国的利率应该是全球最低的[8]

Buckle up, kiddos. And keep your wallets and portfolios close. The Federal Reserve heads into 2026 swirling in a messy mix of economic pressures and political uncertainties. While the actual impact on interest rates remains to be seen, there is little doubt the takeaways from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee are ripe with concerns about the turgid tensions in inflation rates and the job market. Plus, there’s the Shakespearean drama engulfing the replacement of Jerome Powell when ...

And then there is this part Democratic representative Henry Quailar joining Sunday Morning Futures describing how the Biden era Department of Justice tried to bribe and ent trap him. Watch this. >> First of all, uh we're innocent and we have looked at all the evidence that got provided through discovery. I'll emphasize this. Not a single person said there was a quit proquo. In fact, they failed at showing that quit proquo. And Maria, you know, they even went and did a sting operation, a separate sting opera ...

Key Takeaways Hammack's views are especially important because next year she will be one of 12 voters on the Federal Open Market Committee that makes decisions on interest rate changes. (Four seats on the board rotate among 11 regional Fed banks.) Related Education Three members of the Federal Reserve's policy committee talked about interest rates on Friday, and fittingly, given the divisions on the committee, had three different takes about where it should go. Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve ...