Let's get reaction from CBC contributor David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jeffre. David, great to see you. >> Good to see you, Melissa.>> Um, how do you how do you uh examine this data. How does this change, if at all, your view of the Fed and what it does next year. >> Well, first thing I'd say is all of this data has to be, you know, taken with a much larger grain of salt than we usually take it with.And that's a pretty large grain of salt to begin with. as the data consistently gets revised and ce ...

Joining us now with more on that China and maybe even a little touch of Venezuela is Kyle Bass, founder and CIO at Haymon Capital Management. Kyle, I hope you're ready because we got a lot of things that we want to hit with you. Are you ready. >> I'm ready.>> Let's do this. All right, let's kick things off maybe with the Federal Reserve. Obviously, you're very well known for subprime years ago.Some people suggest the Federal Reserve is making a policy mistake by keeping rates too high for too long. What say ...

James Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth. The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide investors of all levels in their journey. Features include a The Pragmatic Investor Portfolio, weekly market ...

比特币价格预测与驱动因素 - 比特币是一种两极分化严重的资产 但过去是一项成功的投资 [1] - 截至12月11日上午 比特币价格约为90,000美元 较10月初超过126,000美元的峰值有所下跌 [2] - 预测比特币价格将在五年内增长两倍 达到270,000美元 [2] 宏观经济催化剂：美国债务与货币供应 - 关键的宏观经济趋势是美国债务水平和货币供应量的持续增长 且无放缓迹象 [4] - 美联储宣布再次降息25个基点 并恢复量化宽松 每月购买高达400亿美元的国库券 以此向系统注入流动性 [4] - 过去20年间 美国联邦债务从约8万亿美元增至超过38万亿美元 同期M2货币供应量增长了238% [7] - 比特币诞生于2009年1月 其历史价格上涨与联邦债务和货币供应量的持续增长在时间上重合 [7] 比特币的价值主张与市场整合 - 比特币的价值主张在于其资产不受任何人控制 从未被黑客攻破 且供应量有固定上限 [7] - 比特币正持续与传统金融服务行业整合 独特的金融产品不断进入市场 [8] - 比特币未来的回报率可能不会像过去那样强劲 [8]

The Federal Reserve cast the move as management of money-market conditions. Others see coordination with the Treasury to help fund the deficit and suppress long-term yields. ...

Mark, good morning to you. Let's have 3 minutes on the markets there and a lot of the negativity easy to attribute to Oracle. Nasdaq futures are down more than 80 minutes, for example, and that's a focused attack.But you think there's something more negative about the Fed that maybe that narrative ignores. Yeah, definitely. Oracle has been a driver of negativity today.Now, it was slightly delayed reaction in terms of Asia because after SoftBank also fell on the Oracle story that Asia got a little bit more n ...

For more on today's decision, let's get to senior economics reporter Steve Leeman, who is in Washington. Steve, >> hey Melissa. Yeah, the Fed following through on an expected hawkish rate cut, reducing rates by a quarter point to the new range of 3 and a half to 375, but signaling might be done cutting, at least for now.It appeared to buoy markets, however, with a more aggressive policy than expected for the balance sheet. On RA, the statement, what it did, it used language that it had used in the past to s ...

美联储政策立场与市场解读 - 美联储主席在会议中反复使用“well positioned”一词 强调当前政策立场适当 当被问及是否将暂停行动时 再次重申此观点[1][2] - 美联储主席淡化通胀风险 重新关注盈亏平衡通胀率 并指出该指标已长期稳定在2%中段区间 同时明确表示不预期就业需求会推高通胀 试图将通胀描述为较小的问题[3][4] - 美联储主席的言论被解读为偏鸽派 其强调就业数据可能被高估 暗示实际就业增长可能远低于报告值 例如报告增加4万份工作可能实际为减少2万份[2] 利率政策效果与市场反应 - 自去年9月开始 美联储已累计降息175个基点 但两年期国债收益率在此期间完全未变 联邦基金利率在降息后终于与两年期国债收益率持平[5][6] - 长期利率在美联储降息周期中不降反升 30年期国债收益率自降息开始前已上升约75个基点 10年期国债收益率同样上升[8][9] - 在本次降息后 收益率曲线再次陡峭化 2年期与30年期国债利差扩大至约123-124个基点 接近年内130个基点的高位[10] 政策工具与资产购买 - 除降息及相关声明外 美联储还推出了400亿美元的资产购买计划 此举被部分市场参与者视为量化宽松 标志着在长期量化紧缩后政策方向的突然转变[7] - 市场认为此举传递出信号 即美联储将在需要时实施量化宽松 这为市场提供了一定程度的希望[7] 政策对特定行业的影响 - 市场普遍认为美联储降息旨在提振住房市场 但累计175个基点的降息并未对住房市场产生帮助 相反 长期利率在降息周期中上升[8] - 分析观点认为 美联储降息无助于降低长期利率 市场走势似乎印证了这一观点 即更偏鸽派的美联储反而可能导致长期利率上升[9][10]

Let's talk more about that now with Jeff Kilberg. He's the founder and CEO of KKM Financial. What do you say, sir.Welcome. >> Well, Kelly, kind of a surprise. Everyone was looking for a cut in rates, but more hawkish, and we actually got more.If you think about that 40 billion that going to start purchasing in just a couple days, that's annualized half a trillion dollars of new QE. So, with a $6.5% trillion balance sheet, I think a lot of folks were surprised. That was the initial reaction, equities, but yo ...

美联储政策预期与市场影响 - 市场普遍预期美联储将进行“鹰派降息” 即降息的同时对未来进一步降息持不确定或谨慎态度 这已被市场自去年10月以来消化并有所准备[1][2] - 存在“鸽派降息”的可能性 即美联储通过点阵图等预测暗示明年有更多降息 或承认经济风险平衡转向 这将构成看涨信号[3][4] - 市场已适应美联储在制度上略偏鹰派的立场 部分原因可能是为应对外部压力并维护其信誉 这种动态已被市场计价 因此12月会议结果若与预期不同可能带来意外[7][8] 量化宽松与资产负债表操作 - 美联储过去三年主要通过资产负债表进行操作 紧缩仅通过消耗银行系统准备金这一渠道实现 这属于金融体系“管道”问题[11] - 量化宽松的核心影响在于购买国债和抵押贷款支持证券 此举会压低长期利率 从而显著影响股票等风险资产价格 并通过抑制提前还款来压低波动性[11][12] - 随着量化紧缩的结束 本质上意味着量化宽松的回归 这将对市场构成潜在积极因素[4]