1929年市场狂热背景 - 整个文化都卷入股市 全民参与投机热潮 [2][3] - 纽约精英阶层和亿万富翁阶级均参与其中 当时已存在非通胀调整的亿万富翁 [4] - 人们赚取数百万美元 城市中经纪商遍布 甚至可以在酒店进行交易 [4][5] - 当时存在希望 认为资本主义能让每个人都成为百万富翁 [5] 关键公司与人物 - 美国无线电公司是当时的明星股 相当于今天的英伟达 每个人都想买入 [5][6] - 查理·米切尔被称为"阳光查理" 他创造了现代信贷概念 推动通过贷款购买股票 [7] - 花旗银行前身National City银行由查理·米切尔运营 他住在第五大道现为法国领事馆的豪宅 [7] - 美林公司创始人查尔斯·美林在1928年就告诉人们退出市场 [9] - 卡特·格拉斯后来创建了1933年格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案 被称为当时的伊丽莎白·沃伦 [10] 市场崩溃过程与政策应对 - 1929年10月是灾难性的 市场虽有反弹但未能完全恢复 [12] - 崩溃是一系列多米诺骨牌效应 而非单日事件 随后华盛顿做出了一系列糟糕的政策选择 [13] - 到1929年底 股市仅下跌17% [13] - 当时人们使用10比1的保证金比例交易 导致像格劳乔·马克斯这样的投资者需要抵押房屋 [14] - 当时没有美国证券交易委员会 内幕交易合法 没有资本要求和银行法案 [15] 历史教训与当代对比 - 2008年时任美联储主席本·伯南克的博士论文研究大萧条 从中吸取了教训 [16] - 胡佛总统在当时采取了错误政策 在最糟糕的时候决定增税并实施关税 [16][17] - 当时实施的关税政策与当今情况存在相似之处 [17]

Key Points The Buffett indicator has accurately predicted past market downturns and is now at its highest level ever. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has predicted multiple market crashes and is now at its second-highest level ever. The best thing investors can do is be prepared for a potential market decline while focusing on the long term. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › You've no doubt heard the phrase, "What goes up can come down." This adage continually lurks in the ...

Walking up to The Plaza Hotel's east side entrance, Andrew Ross Sorkin is in his element. Just seconds after his arrival, he dives into what the storied hotel was like a century ago, sending me scrambling to get my recorder out. "In 1929, people would come here and it was insane — every business guy would be here and they would all sort of gawk at each other," he gushes. "You remember the famous Four Seasons, where people would have lunch in the '80s and '90s? This was like that." The Plaza is one of th ...

市场风险预警 - 摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙认为美国股市在未来六个月至两年内发生严重调整的可能性远高于市场普遍定价 若市场定价为10% 其个人评估概率接近30% [1][2] - 导致市场不确定性的风险因素包括地缘政治环境 财政支出以及全球再军事化 [2] - 国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃警告全球经济的韧性尚未经过充分考验 并存在令人担忧的迹象 [4] - 英国央行指出人工智能公司的高估值可能造成股市泡沫 全球市场出现突然调整的风险正在增加 [5] 人工智能行业前景 - 杰米·戴蒙承认投入人工智能领域的部分资金可能会损失 [6] - 其认为人工智能技术是真实且有前景的 整体上将产生回报 但类比汽车和电视行业 大多数参与者可能不会取得成功 [6]

Crash odds are elevated when an industry or sector outperforms the market significantly. - MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto October doesn’t deserve its reputation as the month when stock-market crashes occur. Though the two worst crashes in U.S. history happened in that month — 1929 and 1987 — the risk of a marketwide crash is no greater in October than in any other month. Investors worried about a broad market crash in October can perhaps take a bigger sigh of relief. The same cannot be said o ...