通胀现状与美联储政策 - 截至最新数据，核心个人消费支出价格指数为2.8%，核心消费者价格指数为2.6%，两者均高于美联储2%的通胀目标 [1] - 美联储在最近一次会议上实施了市场普遍预期的25个基点降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%，这是连续第三次降息，利率区间处于2022年11月以来的最低水平 [3] - 美联储会议声明指出，通胀自年初以来有所上升并保持在高位，但委员会坚定致力于将通胀率恢复至2%的目标 [3] - 根据CME FedWatch工具显示，市场预期美联储在下周会议上维持利率不变的概率为95%，降息25个基点的概率为5% [4] 核心通胀指标的定义与作用 - 美联储强调“核心”通胀的重要性，该指标剔除了波动性较大的食品和能源价格 [2] - 政策制定者通过多种“核心”通胀指标来识别通胀趋势，剔除价格剧烈或频繁波动的项目有助于评估通胀的潜在趋势 [3] PCE与CPI指标对比分析 - 美联储在评估通胀管理进展时更关注核心PCE而非核心CPI，主要原因之一是核心PCE的波动性通常远小于核心CPI，这使其成为更可靠的指标 [5][6] - 自1960年以来，核心CPI读数有近80%的时间高于核心PCE，平均高出48个基点或0.48% [10] - 在2025年11月，核心PCE自2021年以来首次超过核心CPI，两者最新利差为负16个基点或负0.16% [10] - 自1960年以来的累计增长显示，核心CPI增长了983%，而核心PCE仅增长了705%，比前者低了近三分之一 [11] 通胀历史趋势 - 长期来看，核心CPI和核心PCE走势大体一致，但核心CPI consistently表现出更大的波动性 [7] - 聚焦21世纪，通胀在2021年前保持在3%以下，但新冠疫情引发了自1980年代初以来的最高通胀率 [8] - 核心PCE于2022年2月达到峰值5.57%，核心CPI随后在2022年9月达到峰值6.63% [8] - 尽管两者此后均有所下降，但近期数据显示通胀停滞在美联储2%的目标之上 [8] 核心通胀指标的局限性 - 虽然“核心”通胀有助于经济学家识别趋势，但将食品和能源这类必需月度支出排除在外，容易引起公众困惑 [12] - 汽油等商品价格的极端波动常常掩盖政策制定者所关注的潜在通胀趋势 [12] 通胀环境下的投资行为 - 在高通胀时期，投资者有时会转向农业大宗商品交易所交易基金，例如Teucrium小麦基金和Teucrium玉米基金 [13]

Citadel founder Ken Griffin delivered a stark message to global leaders at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday, identifying unchecked sovereign debt—not private market speculation—as the single greatest threat to financial stability in 2026.A Crisis Of Public ExpenditureSpeaking on a CNBC panel alongside BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink and ECB President Christine Lagarde, Griffin rejected historical comparisons to the private sector excess that triggered the Great Depression.Instead, he pointed t ...

Key Takeaways EMB is drawing interest as dollar-denominated EM bonds offer income away from the US-Europe tariff conflict.EMLC benefits from expectations that favorable inflation will support EM local currency debt.VWOB stands out as EM bonds offer compelling carry versus developed markets with tightening yield spreads.As the first month of 2026 witnessed an intensifying trade war between the United States and Europe over the Greenland dispute, investors are likely to increasingly pivot toward safe-haven as ...

Key Points ETFs require less effort than individual stocks, yet they can be incredibly powerful investments. Growth ETFs can help you earn above-average returns over time. A long-term outlook can reduce the risk of losing money during a market downturn. 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard Admiral Funds - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF › Long-term investing is one of the most effective ways to build wealth while minimizing the impact of market volatility, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are low- ...

US spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds recorded heavy net outflows on Tuesday, reflecting the intensifying macro-driven selloff that has swept across global financial markets and weighed heav... ...

These ETFs make it easy to collect passive income.Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are some of the most passive investments you can make. They can provide you with an instantly diversified portfolio of stocks. As a result, they can be excellent ways to generate passive income. Here are three top dividend-focused ETFs to buy for passive income. Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETFThe Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD 0.69%) tracks an index (The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index) designed to measure the performanc ...

Key Points Cathie Wood's Ark Invest is known to invest in game-changing technologies. Given this slant, it's easy to see why Wood and her team believe in crypto and Bitcoin. Bitcoin had an up-and-down year in 2025. 10 stocks we like better than Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF › Given that Cathie Wood and her team at Ark Invest are such big fans of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), it's only natural that the company has its own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The ARK 21Shares Bitco ...

A Danish pension fund is preparing to sell its entire holding of U.S. Treasury securities by the end of January, citing concerns about credit risk tied to fiscal and political developments in the country.‘Rising Credit Risk’ Under TrumpAkademikerPension, a member-owned pension fund for academics in Denmark, with $25 billion in assets under management, has announced that it will be disposing of all of its U.S. government debt holdings by the end of this month. The fund’s Chief Investment Officer, Anders Sche ...

China is the world's second-largest exporter of silver behind Hong Kong, and toward the end of 2025, it announced new restrictions on how much metal producers could ship out of the country. The restrictions took effect on Jan. 1, 2026. China is trying to protect its domestic supply chains because it's one of the world's largest manufacturers of electronics, but these new restrictions also give the country additional leverage in trade negotiations with other economic superpowers like the U.S.In 2024, around ...

Aptus Defined Risk ETF (DRSK US) – Investment PropositionAptus Defined Risk ETF (DRSK) supplies a hybrid design that pairs investment-grade corporate bond exposure with a long-dated call option sleeve on U.S. large-cap equities, seeking current income with convex upside. The philosophy is to anchor portfolio stability with credit while reserving a measured portion of risk budget for asymmetric equity participation, allowing potential equity gains without fully embracing equity drawdowns. In calm or grinding ...