Getting the Gold MemoThe dramatic rise in gold and silver is finally starting to attract attention from the general public.Last September, we were shocked to learn that in 2023, 71% of financial advisors had 0-1% exposure to gold.That 2023 data came from Bank of America’s fund manager survey. And in the most updated version of that survey, we’re starting to see a pickup in gold ownership among professional investors. See below:As we can see, 39% of fund managers still have 0% exposure to gold. That means no ...

黄金市场表现 - 黄金价格在10月6日突破每盎司4000美元，年初至今上涨51%，显著超过标普500指数15.3%的涨幅 [1] - 黄金价格在两年内上涨116%，超过同期标普500指数60%的涨幅 [2] 黄金价格上涨驱动因素 - 严重依赖美元的各国央行正寻求储备多元化，通过持有黄金替代美元计价资产来降低对美元的依赖 [3] - 美元相对于欧元、英镑、加元、墨西哥比索、日元和人民币等外币贬值 [4] - 零售投资者持续买入黄金ETF和黄金首饰，科技行业对用于高性能半导体以驱动AI的黄金需求也在增加 [6][7] 黄金ETF产品分析 - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)信托持有1013.17吨黄金，费用率为0.4% [10][12] - iShares Gold Trust (IAU)信托持有484.35吨黄金，费用率为0.25% [10][12] - 这两只ETF合计持有价值超过1830亿美元的黄金，约占中国黄金储备规模的三分之二 [11] - VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 年初至今上涨127%，但其资产仅17.6%投资于美国金矿公司，加拿大敞口更大，该ETF支付年度股息，30天SEC收益率为0.38%，费用率为0.51% [13][15][16] 黄金投资策略 - 将黄金作为多元化投资组合中的一部分是更佳策略，实物黄金存在存储、安全和流动性风险 [9] - 投资金矿ETF可以分散不同公司和地区的风险，但仅适合风险承受能力高且寻求金矿公司敞口的投资者 [15][16] - 建议投资者先确定投资黄金的方式（实物、数字、金矿或组合），然后逐步建立头寸，而非在当前高价时过度投资 [18]

黄金市场表现 - 黄金价格创下历史记录，达到每盎司4000美元 [1] - 美国黄金ETF在9月份资金流入超过90亿美元，创下单月历史最高纪录 [3] - 道富规模1240亿美元的SPDR Gold Shares在9月流入35亿美元，但其在8月的净销售额更高，达41亿美元 [3] 市场驱动因素 - 投资者因美国政府关门等不确定性而转向黄金和加密货币等去中心化资产 [2] - 当前政府关门因特朗普政府提议永久性裁员而感觉更为严重，且导致9月就业数据延迟发布，加剧了对美联储独立性及通胀等问题的担忧 [2] - 历史性制度信任受损，包括政治暴力、机构武器化、联盟关系紧张以及政府关门，促使投资者调整策略 [2][3] 机构观点与预测 - 历史数据显示黄金20年年化回报率为11%，高于股票的9%和全球债券的2% [4] - 高盛分析师预测到2026年底黄金现货价格将接近每盎司5000美元 [4] - 财务顾问认为黄金在危机时期表现最佳，并建议客户配置黄金资产以防范市场意外 [4][5]

Key Takeaways Gold hit $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Tuesday, extending its record run amid heightened economic uncertainty and surging interest from everyday investors. Gold futures rose to an all-time high of $4,014 an ounce Tuesday morning. The precious metal, which investors typically favor as a hedge against inflation or stock market downturns, has gained about 50% this year, more than most stocks in the S&P 500. "The latest leg higher has been underpinned by the growing uncertainty over the U. ...

The price of gold surpassed $4,000 on Tuesday, Oct. 7 for the first time ever as the government entered its seventh day of a partial shutdown. Gold futures were trading at $4,006 around 11 a.m. ET before slipping under the benchmark but quickly recovered. The commodity is up 50% year to date. Gold has continued to rise as the U.S. dollar weakens and inflation persists, according to the CME Group, an American financial services company. The dollar is down 10% year to date. Additionally, the current rat ...

Gold prices have shattered records this week, briefly topping $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever. This caps off a near-50% surge in 2025 which has turned the oldest “safe haven” in finance into one of the world’s hottest and apparently most crowded trades. How this rise compares to previous years The surge is a markedly extreme move for an asset that typically posts single-digit annual gains. The last time gold climbed this fast was more than four decades ago , during the inflationary late 1970s, w ...

Record-Breaking Surge in Precious MetalsGold recently broke historical records, exceeding $3,900 per ounce, and silver later followed suit, reaching a maximum of $48 per troy ounce. At first glance, it may seem that this is a signal for investors to urgently increase the share of precious metals in their portfolios in order to profit from the growth. But let’s take a closer look at what is behind this increase and what risks this story entails.Reasons for the Gold RushFirst and foremost, this rise in gold p ...

市场表现与资产价格 - 道指期货上涨83点，市场在第三季度财报周开局呈现反弹态势 [1] - 黄金价格逼近每盎司4000美元，黄金ETF获得资金流入 [2] - 比特币价格飙升至125,000美元，创下历史新高 [2] - 10年期美国国债收益率升至4.16% [7] 美联储政策预期 - 美联储10月政策会议降息概率为96%，预计降息25个基点 [11] - 美联储官员Steven Myron主张降息50个基点 [7][11] - 美国银行将美联储降息预期从12月调整至10月，预计今年仅有一次降息 [10][11] - 高盛和摩根士丹利预计今年还会有两次降息 [11] 经济数据与政策影响 - 美国经济预计增长3.8%或更高，受减税、放松监管、贸易政策及能源成本下降推动 [5][6] - 政府停摆进入第六天，可能导致联邦雇员裁员，影响关键经济数据发布 [1][11] - 移民政策收紧和租金趋势降温有助于抑制住房通胀 [7] 信贷环境与中小企业 - 区域性银行向小企业提供更多信贷，被认为是经济活力的重要来源 [12] - 降低利率可扩大资本获取渠道，助力中小型企业扩大厂房设备投资和招聘 [13][14][15] - 通过增加产出来抑制通胀，比美联储通过限制性利率压制需求更有效 [15]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at a record $4,007.10 per troy ounce on Wednesday, up 0.8% from Tuesday’s close of $3,976.60. This was the precious metal’s first open above $4,000. As the price of gold eclipses $4,000, the U.S. government shutdown continues. To force a reopening, President Trump has threatened to withhold backpay for federal workers. Meanwhile, the shutdown has paused the flow of economic data that helps central bank policymakers set interest rates. Federal Reserve officials have already expre ...

History shows that the debasement trade does not always accelerate during periods of government shutdowns. And the dollar is still above the levels seen during the last U.S. government shutdown in 2018-19, which lasted 35 days and took place under the first Trump administration.“The debasement trade has demonstrated strong momentum this year, with assets like gold and bitcoin generating strong returns,” said Matt Stucky, the Milwaukee-based chief portfolio manager of equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth M ...