报告行业投资评级 无相关内容 [无] 报告的核心观点 - 美国机构债券收益率曲线分析 [2][3][4] - 美国机构债券与国债收益率利差分析 [3][4] - 美国机构债券收益率波动分析 [3][4][5] 行业分析 房地美(FHLMC) - FHLMC债券收益率曲线和利差分析 [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][34][35] - FHLMC债券收益率波动分析 [23][24][25][26][27] 联邦住房贷款银行(FHLB) - FHLB债券收益率曲线和利差分析 [36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48] - FHLB债券收益率波动分析 [36][37][38][39][40][41] 联邦国民抵押贷款协会(FNMA) - FNMA债券收益率曲线和利差分析 [5][6][7][8] - FNMA债券收益率波动分析 [5][6][7][8] 短期国债(0-1年) - 短期国债收益率曲线和利差分析 [49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][64] - 短期国债收益率波动分析 [49][50][51][52][53][54] 中期国债(1-2年) - 中期国债收益率曲线和利差分析 [65][66][67][68][69][70] - 中期国债收益率波动分析 [65][66][67][68][69] 长期国债(2-5年) - 长期国债收益率曲线和利差分析 [73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81] - 长期国债收益率波动分析 [73][74][75][76][77][78][79] 超长期国债(5-30年) - 超长期国债收益率曲线和利差分析 [82][83][84][85] - 超长期国债收益率波动分析 [82][83][84]

报告行业投资评级 报告未提供行业投资评级 [无] 报告的核心观点 - 近期储备余额下降至2023年以来最低水平,隔夜逆回购余额也在过去几个月内有所下降 [2] - 回购利率自5月以来有所上升,SOFR稳定在5.33%-5.35%的新区间,日交易量创历史新高,主要交易商资产负债表上国债存量上升推动了对回购杠杆的需求 [2] - 尽管回购市场出现压力,但联邦基金利率保持相对稳定,这可能反映了政府支持机构(主要是联邦住房贷款银行)在联邦基金市场上持有大量流动性且缺乏其他投资机会 [2] - 8月季度再融资公告更新了TBAC对国债票据的建议,从之前的"15%-20%"范围调整为"平均约20%"的目标,未来几个季度票据占比可能会有所提高 [3] - 财政部加大了债券回购操作,可能会对融资条件产生积极影响,因为有助于减少交易商库存和降低杠杆投资者的回购需求 [3] 分组1 - 储备余额和逆回购余额的下降趋势表明流动性正在向"充足"水平靠拢 [2][26] - 回购市场出现压力,但联邦基金利率保持稳定,反映了政府支持机构在该市场的重要作用 [2][52] - 财政部增加债券回购有助于改善融资条件,减轻交易商和杠杆投资者的压力 [3] 分组2 - 季度再融资公告调整了国债票据占比目标,未来几个季度票据供给可能会有所增加 [3][47] - 储备余额和逆回购余额的下降趋势表明流动性正在向历史低位靠拢,但仍高于2019年水平 [26][28] - 财政部预计将适度减少国库现金余额,可能会缓解年末融资压力 [3]

Deutsche Bank Research US Treasury 30-Year Bond Auction Brian Lu US Rates Strategy (212) 250-7434 brian-a.lu@db.com Auction date: August 8, 2024 PORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFIGATIONSTLOCATED INTAPPENDIX(EMCE(E) 041740/2023- UNTIL 9th WARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SELAPPENDIX TEOR FURTHER DETALS, 30-Year Auction Statistics | --- | --- | |---------|------------| | | Size ($bn) | | | �22.3 | | Jul-24 | $22.0 | | Jun-24 | 422.0 | | | ee25.0 | | Ap ...

Recent developments ❏ Reserve balances have recently fallen to their lowest levels since 2023, and ON RRP balances also resumed declining after remaining steady over the past several months. Reserve balances now constitute around 11% of GDP, the lowest since the start of QT. Reserve metrics are moving closer to levels consistent with "ample" previously. ❏ Repo rates have increased since May, with SOFR settling in a new range of 5.33% - 5.35%. Daily volumes are at record highs. Demand for repo leverage is hi ...

Deutsche Bank Research North America United States Rates US Fixed Income Weekly Date 9 August 2024 Strategy Update This publication is a compilation of key research reports published over the past week. Matthew Raskin Strategist +1-212-250-1741 Steven Zeng, CFA Strategist +1-212-250-9373 Brian Lu Research Associate +1-212-250-7434 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INF ...

Deutsche Bank Research North America High Yield Corporates Consumer Services, Leisure & Gaming Company Restaurant Brands International Inc. Date 9 August 2024 Key Takeaways from Q2'24 Results Restaurant Brands reported Adjusted EBITDA of $720 million (+8.3% versus $665 million in Q2'23) on revenues of $2.08 billion (+17.2% versus $1.78 billion in Q2'23). Results were modestly ahead of consensus expectations (~$708 million). Ricardo Chinchilla Research Analyst +1-212-250-9980 Figure 1: Second Quarter Snapsho ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Cross-Discipline Thematic Research Date 9 August 2024 Next week...this week All eyes will be on July CPI and retail sales in the US in the week ahead. Latest economic activity is also due in China and Q2 GDP will be out in Japan. For the UK, an important week is ahead with labour market data, inflation and the monthly GDP releases. Monetary policy will be in focus in China, Norway and New Zealand. Corporate earnings highlights include Walmart, Cisco and Alibaba. The July CPI re ...

Deutsche Bank Research North America High Yield Corporates Healthcare Company ModivCare Inc. Date 9 August 2024 Q224 Results Summary and Recommendation We rate MODV's bonds Buy. MODV reported Q224 EBITDA slightly ahead of the Bloomberg consensus. Importantly, MODV won additional NEMT contracts in Q224, and did not lose any meaningful contracts. This bodes well for a positive 2H24 setup. Although MODV drew down significantly on its revolver in Q224 (due to changes in contracts receivables and payables), it's ...

Deutsche Bank Research North America High Yield Corporates Consumer Services, Leisure & Gaming Company Mohegan Tribal Gaming Date 8 August 2024 Q3'24 Initial Analysis: Good Enough While consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was down for the quarter, we found more positives than negatives in the Q3'24 results. The positives include: (1) we estimate that the restricted group reported Adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter even after adjusting for the non-recurring benefit at Mohegan Pennsylvania; (2) management noted t ...

24-Jul-24 LatAm FX and Rates Analytics LatAm FX and Rates Analytics | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | EMFX Analytics . | | | FX Performance . | | | FX Scores | | | FX vs Global Drivers . | | | FX vs Domestic Fundamentals | | | | | | Local Fl Analytics . | | | | | | Monetary Policy Snapshot . | | | Brazil | | | Mexico . | | | Chile | | | | | | Colomb ...