美联储降息对银行业影响 - 25个基点降息对所有银行和地区性银行有利 但降息时机存在疑问 因股市和房地产价值处于历史高位 通胀仍高于美联储目标 失业率接近历史低点 [2][3][4] - 长期利率已从年初下降75个基点 商业房地产借款人可获得比9个月前显著更好的利率 [7][8] - 贷款需求在过去几个月出现回升 降息将提升经济需求 使借款人更容易覆盖偿债覆盖率 [6] 贷款市场与利差分析 - 银行希望通过较高贷款利率获取利差 但需要贷款需求支撑 [5] - 抵押贷款利率已从7%下降至约6.4% 但需要进一步降低利差 [11] - 降低利差需要通过某种方式去风险化 并增加住房供应 [11] 房地产市场需求与供应 - 住房市场陷入停滞 住房开工数据疲软 需要降低抵押贷款利率 [8][9] - 住房成本问题主要由供应驱动 增加供应可使住房成本下降 [11] - 抵押利率大幅上升通常会导致住宅房地产价值下降 但此次未出现该情况 [12] 商业房地产现状 - 尽管存在悲观预期 但商业房地产的负面情况并未在银行特别是中型银行中成为现实 [6] - 商业房地产借款人因利率下降获得显著更好的融资条件 [7][8]

美联储政策动向 - 美联储预计将进行九个月来首次基准利率下调 [1] - 当前通胀高于2%目标且就业市场疲软 使美联储政策制定面临挑战 [3] 利率政策对借贷市场的影响 - 联邦基金利率变化将影响消费者为信用卡、汽车贷款和抵押贷款支付的利率 [2] - 抵押贷款利率自1月以来已因降息预期而下降 降息环境将随时间推移为借款人提供缓解 [5] - 较低利率可为背负7%抵押贷款的房主或希望为学生贷款和信用卡债务再融资的毕业生减轻负担 [6] 利率政策对储蓄市场的影响 - 降息将逐步削弱目前存单和高收益储蓄账户提供的吸引力 [6] - 目前存单最佳利率徘徊在4%或以上 高收益储蓄账户利率为4.6% [7] - 高收益储蓄账户年化收益率远高于传统储蓄账户的全国平均水平0.38% [8]

Markets are probably getting the rate cut they so badly want this week, and a lot of stocks have already rallied on the anticipation. But a few areas of the market might still have room to run after the Fed decision, a chief strategist told Business Insider on Tuesday.Liz Thomas, head of investment strategy at SoFi Technologies, sees three sectors in particular poised to rally as borrowing costs come down. Speaking with Business Insider, Thomas made it clear that she believes investors have reacted approp ...

投资策略 - 高净值客户资金管理人Matt Shapiro认为美联储降息令人失望可能为投资者提供买入"超级公司"的机会 [1]

Matt Shapiro, a money manager for high net-worth clients, says disappointment over a Fed rate cut may offer a chance for investors to buy some "super companies.†...

The Federal Reserve begins its September meeting today, Sept. 16, and will announce its policy decision tomorrow. In what was in all likelihood his final address as the Fed chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium last month, Jerome Powell raised hopes of a rate cut by observing a “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” At the same event last year, Powell had said that "the time has come for policy to adjust,” which, as investors will recall, was followed by a 50-basis-point rate c ...

Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low interest rate environment, but the asset may not rise in the aftermath of a widely expected U.S. central bank interest rate slashing on Wednesday, say analysts, who believe markets have already priced in the cut.  The analysts say that traders will be looking more keenly at what Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell says in the press conference after the announcement.  "It does seem to be pretty priced in," Juan Leon, Bitwise's senior investment strategist, told D ...

"The overall set-up is reminiscent of September 2024 when rates were doing the same thing for the same reasons ahead of Fed meeting with a virtual 100% chance of a rate cut," said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily. "Back then, mortgage rates moved paradoxically higher after the Fed rate cut. The same thing could happen this time, but it's by no means guaranteed."The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped 12 basis points from Monday to 6.13%, according to Mortgage New ...

市场对美联储降息的预期与反应 - 市场普遍预期美联储将在周三宣布降息，概率接近100% [4] - 市场反应基于其自身解读，并受到华尔街分析师和宏观评论员的显著影响 [1] - 历史模式显示，利率决议公布后的24小时内市场波动性较大，从周三中午持续到周四中午 [2] 长期利率与股市的关联 - 美联储设定的是隔夜贷款利率，对短期国库券、存单和市场账户影响更大，而非10年期债券 [1] - 10年期国债收益率接近跌破4%的关键水平，为两年多来首次，其走势对股市整体反应至关重要 [5][6] - 10年期利率是抵押贷款和其他大额贷款的基础，其变化会通过影响消费者购买力和企业融资能力产生涓滴效应 [6] 重点关注股票：卡特彼勒 - 卡特彼勒（CAT）依赖大型工业的支出，并为客户提供融资服务 [7] - 如果利率下降，其贷款部门业务预计将因经济活动增加而变得更繁忙 [7] - 该公司股价在经历大幅上涨后近几个月处于盘整状态，非常接近突破，美联储决议可能成为催化剂 [7] 重点关注股票：摩根大通 - 摩根大通（JPM）作为大型银行，其庞大的经纪和投资业务将受益于利率下降 [8] - 该逻辑可能失效的风险在于，如果债券市场拒绝接受降息并推高10年期收益率 [8] - 若大型债券持有人对美联储宽松和政府不愿削减支出的组合看法负面，可能扰乱当前积极趋势 [9] 重点关注股票：微软 - 微软（MSFT）拥有AAA信用评级，高于美国政府，具备自我融资能力，不直接受美联储行动影响 [10] - 美联储放松货币政策可能通过提升客户购买其产品和服务的能力及意愿，使微软间接受益 [10] - 该公司股价在上次财报后曾涨至560美元区域，随后回落约10%，基于美联储行动再次上涨并非不可能 [10]

LIVE S&P 500 Builds on Record High as Fed Rate Call Comes Under More Scrutiny Last Updated: 38 min ago Gold Hits Record as Investors Pile Into Fed Rate- Cut Bets By George Glover Gold was glistening again on Tuesday, climbing to yet another record high with investors certain the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates for the first time this year. Futures climbed 0.3% to just under $3,734 an ounce in early trading. The gains mean bullion is now up 41% for the year, surging amid a central-bank buying ...