Let’s ponder for a moment what might happen to interest rates in 2026. The past 12 months have been quite an economic ride: Historic in some respects, hyberbolic in others. New York Fed President John C. Williams thinks the next 12 will provide fewer bumps on Wall Street and Main Street. “If I had to choose one word to describe 2025, it is uncertainty,’’ Williams said Dec. 15 in prepared remarks. “What’s striking is that despite all the uncertainty, the U.S. economy has shown considerable resilience and ...

The U.S. stock market has had an interesting year in 2025. The focus point has been between surging AI investments, President Trump’s quickly changing tariff policies, higher-for-longer interest rates, geopolitical risks and defense stocks, and increasing economic uncertainty in aI am an avid investor with a major focus on small cap companies with experience in investing in US, Canadian, and European markets. My investment philosophy to generating great returns on the stock market revolves around identifyin ...

European stocks look set to open lower on Tuesday as investors await cues from key U.S. data and central bank decisions. The delayed monthly jobs report for November along with the October retail sales report will be in the spotlight today, while the consumer price index for November is scheduled to be released on Thursday. The data could impact the outlook for interest rates after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting last Wednesday showed significant differences of opinion about further rate cuts ...

US stock futures stalled on Tuesday, struggling to shake off a losing session as investors counted down to the delayed release of the November jobs report, seen as pivotal to the path of interest rates next year. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) hovered just below the flatline, while those tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) shed 0.1%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F) fell 0.2%, after the indexes kicked off the week with slight losses. Tech led Monday's losses, with AI jitters continuing to b ...

政策与市场关系 - 金融市场最终关注的是政策带来的结果 而非决策者的个人关系或动机 市场关心现金流和收入流 [4][5] - 正确的政策将使经济表现良好 进而使金融市场有积极反映 错误政策则会导致相反结果 [4] - 如果美联储履行职责 防止经济衰退和高通胀 收入流将保持良好 经济与市场都会因此受益 [6] 决策与观点独立性 - 在利率等政策问题上 决策者会听取来自各方的不同观点 包括政治人物 以挑战和审视自身看法 [8][9] - 群体思维非常有害 容易导致自满和懒惰的共识 因此需要积极寻求不同的经济、通胀和劳动力市场观点 [8] - 决策者不关心观点的来源 无论是来自特朗普总统还是其他人 只关注观点本身是否有价值 [9]

Getting some breaking news out of the Fed this morning. We'll turn to Steve Leeman with that who's also got a piece on the wires. Now, Steve, that's [music] uh pretty interesting.We'll get you the Williams headlines first, though. >> Yeah. John Williams, New York, Fed President, saying monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026.That is language the Fed chair used at the meeting recently that people took to say the Fed was on hold, but not entirely clear. This is where Williams is headed. He say ...

市场整体走势 - 美股主要股指期货在周四早盘交易中指向低开 标普500指数期货下跌0.4% [1] - 周三美股主要指数在美联储利率决议后普遍收高 道琼斯指数上涨497.46点或1.1%至48,057.75点 标普500指数上涨46.17点或0.7%至6,886.68点 纳斯达克指数上涨77.67点或0.3%至23,654.16点 [5] 个股与板块动态 - 软件巨头甲骨文公司股价在盘前交易中暴跌13.1% 因其第二财季营收不及预期 [1][2] - 其他人工智能相关股票如英伟达和超微半导体在盘前交易中也表现疲软 可能反映了市场对其估值的担忧 [2] 宏观经济与政策 - 美联储如预期降息25个基点 但官员对未来降息路径的预测存在显著分歧 [3] - 美国劳工部数据显示 截至12月6日当周初请失业金人数升至23.6万人 较前一周修正后的19.2万人增加4.4万人 增幅超过预期 [3][4] 全球市场与资产表现 - 亚太地区股市周四普遍走低 日本日经225指数下跌0.9% 中国上证综合指数下跌0.7% [6] - 欧洲主要市场上涨 法国CAC 40指数上涨0.6% 德国DAX指数上涨0.3% 英国富时100指数基本持平 [6] - 原油期货下跌0.65美元至每桶57.81美元 黄金期货上涨12.40美元至每盎司4,237.10美元 [7] - 美元兑日元汇率报155.29日元 美元兑欧元汇率报1.1728美元 [7]

美联储利率政策与市场反应 - 美联储宣布连续第三次降息25个基点[1] - 自2024年9月18日开启本轮宽松周期以来累计降息175个基点[6] - 10年期国债收益率在降息周期开始前为3.65%目前为4.14%[6] 美国贸易数据 - 最新贸易逆差为-528亿美元远低于预期的约-620亿美元[1][2] - 前值修正为-590亿美元[2] - 当前-528亿美元的逆差是自2020年6月以来的最小逆差[2] - 贸易逆差从今年3月的-680亿美元显著改善[4] - 出口增长倍数高于进口是逆差缩小的主要原因[5] 美国就业市场数据 - 截至12月6日当周初请失业金人数跳升至23.6万人预期约为22万人[1][3] - 前值从19.1万人小幅修正为19.2万人[3] - 23.6万人的数据是自2025年9月5日当周26.4万人以来的最高值[3] - 截至11月29日当周续请失业金人数为183.8万人较预期的约193.7万人减少约10万人[3][4] - 续请失业金人数前值为193.7万人当前183.8万人是自2025年4月以来的最低值[4] - 感恩节假期和短工作周可能是初请数据异常波动的原因但季节性调整本应抵消此影响[5]

核心观点 - 前总统特朗普及其支持者认为当前经济表现强劲 并强调其政策通过促进实际工资增长和降低特定商品价格来提升民众的负担能力 同时批评民主党政策导致了历史性的高通胀和高物价 [1][8][11] - 评论员认为共和党在“负担能力”议题上的宣传策略需要改进 应聚焦于实际工资增长超过物价涨幅这一核心事实 而非单纯谈论降低物价或通胀率 [6][7][9] - 特朗普政府近期在政策宣传上取得成效 通过聚焦移民、犯罪和经济议题 并用具体数据（如感恩节晚餐价格下降）和民众故事来传递信息 与民主党的说教方式形成对比 [12][13][14] 经济表现与政策主张 - 前总统特朗普宣称美国经济增长并未引发通胀 并批评美联储主席行动迟缓 加息幅度本可至少翻倍 [1][2] - 特朗普称在其任内 美国利率应是全球最低 因为美国经济对世界至关重要 [3] - 财政部长斯科特·贝森特抨击纽约、科罗拉多、伊利诺伊等蓝州阻挠税收减免措施 称这是政治阻挠行为 加重了工薪阶层的州税负担 [5] 通胀与负担能力分析 - 评论员指出 年通胀率仍同比上升约3% 降低物价意味着通缩 而这通常伴随需求崩溃和严重衰退 并非理想情况 [6] - 衡量负担能力的真实指标是实际工资增长 即收入与商品服务支出的对比 而非通胀率本身 [7] - 据称 在特朗普整个任期内 实际工资增长每月均为正 而在拜登任内几乎每月都为负 [8] - 需要降低利率以使住房更可负担 并让企业能雇佣更多人 [10] 政治叙事与宣传策略 - 特朗普将民主党推动的“负担能力”称为骗局 指责民主党制造了高通胀和高物价问题 [3][4] - 共和党需要优化宣传信息 重点应放在民众收入增加、工资增速超过商品服务价格增速上 [6][9] - 特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州的演讲被视作成功案例 涵盖了移民、犯罪和经济议题 并引用具体数据 如称今年火鸡价格便宜了33% 感恩节晚餐比拜登时期便宜了25% [12][13] - 选民寻求的是解决方案 而非说教 [14]

It is Fed day and Wall Street is pricing in almost a 90% chance of another rate cut. But markets remain in full hold your breath mode this afternoon because what happens at 2 p. m.could reset the entire path for the economy as we head into 2026. Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Jackie D'Angelus.I'm here with my co-host Taylor Riggs, Dan McDow, Brian Breberg, and with us for the hour, Michael Lee, strategy founder. Michael Lee named after himself. All right.The Federal Reserve is deeply divided. Some membe ...