JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon declined to rule out the possibility of a recession in 2026, saying Tuesday (Oct. 7) that he will “hope for the best, plan for the worst.”By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins requir ...

当前牛市状况 - 市场处于牛市阶段 资产价格高企 信贷利差处于低位 [1] - 消费者状况良好 就业市场强劲 就业是支撑消费者支出的关键因素 [1] 通胀前景 - 对通胀回落的预期存在担忧 通胀可能不会如市场预期般下降 这或将成为市场的一个意外 [2] - 政府的大量支出具有通胀效应 这可能对通胀构成上行压力 [2][4] - 一项大型法案中包含的刺激措施可能对经济有积极作用 但对通胀可能产生负面影响 [4] 经济衰退与政策展望 - 存在2026年美国经济发生衰退的可能性 [3] - 放松监管对市场情绪有积极影响 能提振动物精神 [4] - 市场预计美联储在未来一年将进行100个基点的降息 但市场预测和美联储预测均可能存在误差 [6][7] - 若通胀再次抬头 美联储进行100基点降息将面临困难 最终决策需权衡通胀与失业率的变化 [8] 政府停摆影响 - 当前美国政府的停摆并未对经济和市场产生实质性影响 [5] - 历史上曾发生过数次政府停摆 包括一次长达35天的停摆 均未对经济和市场造成严重冲击 [5][6] - 市场目前未过分关注政府停摆问题 预计停摆持续也不会引发市场严重担忧 [5]

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon has still not ruled out a possible recession in 2026, even though U.S. GDP is tracking upwards right now. “I hope for the best and plan for the worst,” Dimon told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Tuesday, adding he thought a recession could still happen next year. Veteran Banker’s Views Closely Watched By InvestorsBillionaire banker and Wall Street veteran Dimon’s comments are closely watched by markets, more so because of his blunt and hot takes on the economy ...

市场现状与前景 - 三大主要股指均较历史高点低不到1% [1] - 市场在8月1日因疲软的非农就业报告出现3%的抛售后 因美联储降息周期预期升温而持续上涨 并未出现9月的季节性低迷 [4] - 预计市场将在年底前继续走高 但过程中会伴随由新闻周期驱动的回调 [5] 市场驱动因素 - 市场基本面支持升值 主要驱动因素是美联储降息、盈利预期上调以及未来12个月优于预期的增长前景 [3] - 市场流动性充裕、盈利增长、美联储降息的环境对股市非常有利 [4] - 决定何时增加新资本的关键因素是经济是否出现衰退 目前并未看到衰退来临 [6] 政策影响 - 未来6至12个月的市场背景非常积极 得益于货币政策和财政政策的共同支持 [7] - 2026年前四到五个月将通过税收法规和退税提供约1500亿美元的财政刺激 以支持经济中表现不佳的领域 同时为企业提供税收减免 且美联储正在降息 [7] - 财政政策旨在支持经济 当度过特定时期后 高于预期的通胀读数将不再持续 [9] 行业与消费者表现 - 消费者周期性板块在今年大部分时间内引领市场 但近期住房相关、旅游和部分零售等板块出现些许疲软 [10] - 8月的财报季支持消费者表现优于预期的观点 多数零售商表示业务表现良好 能将关税带来的额外成本仅几个百分点转嫁给消费者 并分摊到整个产品线 [10][11] - 若周期性板块开始表现不佳 则可能是市场发出的信号 市场信号比经济数据更能提前反映实际情况 [12] 盈利与市场广度 - 盈利持续增长 "标普500指数中除七大科技股外的493只成分股"的盈利贡献预计在明年第二季度追平七大科技股 这表明市场广度正在扩大 [13] - 企业有能力根据实际情况进行调整并向前发展 这种适应性非常显著 [14]

These two market leaders have increased their dividends for a combined 115 years.It's impossible to predict with certainty whether a recession is coming, but certain developments sure make it more likely. President Donald Trump's tariff policies could lead to increased prices and plunge the economy into a downturn. The recent government shutdown, especially if it drags on, could lead us directly into a recession.Of course, that may not happen, but it's not a bad idea for investors to prepare for that possib ...

Key Points The Buffett Indicator, a popular stock market indicator, suggests we may be in the late stages of this bull market. However, whether a recession is imminent is still unclear. No matter what the future holds, it's wise to start preparing for the worst just in case. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Despite some rough patches earlier this year, the stock market has been thriving throughout most of 2025. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is up by more than 14% as of this writing, ...

The Trump administration is very much aligned with seeing the success of the American worker. So a number of the policies that are being effectuated really are about the average American family feeling that life is better and working better for them. This backdrop is fueling much of the enthusiasm that we see in markets in the United States.And then, of course, we're on a program of both fiscal and monetary stimulus that you would expect to see in the middle of a recession. We're seeing right here, right no ...

全球主要股指追踪概览 - 追踪列表包含全球九个主要经济体的知名指数 包括美国标普500 加拿大TSX 英国富时100 德国DAXK 法国CAC40 日本日经225 中国上证指数 香港恒生指数和印度BSE SENSEX [1] - 所有九个指数在2025年9月29日前均实现上涨 香港恒生指数以37.4%的年内涨幅位居榜首 加拿大TSX以22.6%涨幅位列第二 日本日经225以20.2%涨幅位列第三 印度BSE SENSEX以2.3%的涨幅位居末位 [2] - 分析提供了各指数当前价值与其历史峰值水平的对比 包括峰值日期及与纪录水平的差距 [3] 不同时期市场相对表现分析 - 自2009年3月9日低点以来 通过将八个指数在起始日统一设定为800点并使用对数坐标轴 可以清晰比较其相对表现 [5] - 自2007年10月9日（标普500前一收盘高点）以来的可视化图表 展示了更长期的市场表现比较 该日期大致处于各市场见顶时间范围（从2007年6月1日法国CAC40到2008年1月8日印度SENSEX）的中点 [6] - 另一图表从世纪之交开始 同样将每个指数在起始日设定为800点 以提供更长期的相对表现视角 [6] 单国家ETF投资工具示例 - 列举了投资于特定国家或地区的交易所交易基金（ETF）示例 包括WisdomTree日本对冲股票基金(DXJ) WisdomTree欧洲对冲股票基金(HEDJ) KraneShares中国互联网ETF(KWEB) iShares MSCI印度ETF(INDA) iShares MSCI香港ETF(EWH) iShares MSCI加拿大ETF(EWC)以及SPDR标普500ETF信托(SPY) [10]

Key TakeawaysOPEC+ has agreed to a modest oil output increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in November, a decision reflecting internal divisions with Russia resisting large hikes and Saudi Arabia favoring a cautious approach amidst demand slowdown concerns.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicates significant progress in negotiations for the release of hostages held by Hamas, stating that 90% of the details have been resolved and expressing hope for finalization "very quickly, early this week ...

Key TakeawaysU.S. Job Market Stalls: September saw only 117,313 new job plans, marking the weakest hiring outlook in over a decade, while 54,064 job cuts were announced, contributing to a year-to-date total of 946,426 layoffs, the highest since 2020.Recession Warnings Intensify: Economist Mark Zandi warns that states accounting for one-third of U.S. GDP are already in or on the brink of recession, citing tariffs, a weak housing market, and slowing job growth.Tech Stocks Dominate Despite Bubble Concerns: Tec ...