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Regional Bank Scare Was A Fluke, Zions Says—But Is The Sector Really Safe?
Benzinga· 2025-10-21 23:02
After last week's $60 million credit charge-off sent Zions Bancorporation (NASDAQ:ZION) tumbling 13% in a single day, the Utah-based lender is now telling investors to relax. Backed by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and a wave of reassuring credit commentary, the stock is clawing back losses—and sparking debate over whether the regional banking sector's panic was overblown.Zions Shares Rebound On Strong ResultsZions reported net income of $221 million, or $1.48 per share, for the third quarter ...
Stocks rise and gold dips as investors regain confidence
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-21 19:19
地缘政治与贸易关系 - 美国总统特朗普预计下周与习近平主席会晤时将达成公平贸易协议 [2] - 美中贸易紧张局势可能缓和的预期提振了投资者情绪 [1][2] - 澳大利亚与美国达成稀土材料供应协议 [2] - 日本首相人选的确立推动日经指数创下历史新高 [1] 金融市场情绪与表现 - 股市周二小幅上涨 因对银行业信贷风险的紧张情绪减弱 [1][3] - 投资者信心上周受重创 因美国地区银行的不良贷款引发对信贷风险的担忧 [3] - 投资者正进行逢低买入 因担忧有所缓解且多家大公司即将公布业绩 [3] - 市场已轻松跨越忧虑之墙 新资本注入风险资产为市场带来新活力 [4] 银行业风险与监管警告 - 欧洲央行首席经济学家对欧元区银行发出严厉警告 称在美元融资枯竭的情况下银行可能面临压力 [4] - 欧元区银行存在大量美元计价的表外敞口和波动性融资 其净敞口的突然变化风险不能排除 [5] - 四月份极端的市场动荡导致美元和避险美国国债遭大幅抛售 使欧元区银行更难依赖其美元计价流动资产 [5] - 美国金融领域私人信贷压力是近期关注焦点 若美国金融业突然出现问题将对欧洲银行产生重大影响 [6][7] - 欧洲央行管理委员会的讲话基调总体上变得更加谨慎 更关注风险和下行风险 [7]
Thoma Bravo Announces Key Appointments to Grow Private Credit Platform
Prnewswire· 2025-10-21 19:00
Accessibility StatementSkip Navigation Former Morgan Stanley Executives Jeff Levin and Kunal Soni Join as Partners Levin Named Head of Thoma Bravo Credit MIAMI and NEW YORK, Oct. 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Thoma Bravo, a leading software investment firm, today announced that Jeff Levin and Kunal Soni have joined the firm as partners on the Thoma Bravo Credit platform. Levin has also been named head of the platform. Together with the firm's investors, Thoma Bravo Credit has invested over $25 billion across m ...
Upbeat Regional Bank Earnings Calm Fears of ‘Cockroach’ Loan Infestation
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-21 18:30
Last week, the top bankers at Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley earned their weight in Patek Philippe watches and Gucci loafers with a run of strong earnings reports. Despite the upbeat financial news, however, all anyone could think about was Blattodea. That’s the scientific name for cockroach. The reason? JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s musings about potential “cockroaches,” like the collapsed auto dealer and financier Tricolor and auto parts company First Brands, l ...
Hiltzik: The sudden financial collapse of this big auto parts firm points to the next market meltdown
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-21 18:00
It's certain, however, that tracing the missing money is going to be a focus for the creditors. On Oct. 2, a lawyer for one of the bigger creditors put two questions to the lawyers for the bankruptcy estate by email, inquiring about $1.9 billion in missing funds : "First, do we know whether FBG [First Brands Group] actually received $1.9 billion (no matter what happened to it)? Second, would you tell us how much is in the segregated accounts in respect of the factored receivables as of today?"No one seems t ...
One of Wall Street's 'golden' geese is under fire. Here's how worried you should be about private credit.
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-21 02:55
Mike Segar/REUTERS This post originally appeared in the First Trade newsletter. You can sign up for Business Insider's daily markets newsletter here. Good morning and welcome to the inaugural edition of First Trade. I'm thrilled you're here. Are you still banking on the TACO trade to save your portfolio? The White House says you might be out of luck going forward. Rundown Forget the AI bubble. Why investors should instead be wary of this year's frenzy for crypto treasuries. $5 trillion in wealth cre ...
Wall Street might be panicking over private credit, but insiders can’t see what all the fuss is about
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-20 22:28
“First Brands, if it was rated by us, would not have been considered in any way, shape, or form a private credit transaction,” said Bill Cox, chief rating officer at Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA), which tracks thousands of private credit loans. “Its main debt was full-on public, broadly syndicated loans.”But credit analysts and executives who spoke to Fortune have mixed views on Wall Street’s panic. Several argue that the failures aren’t private credit problems at all. According to them, these instances a ...
💥The Great Financial Divorce: Why Your Money is Leaving the Slow Lane.
Medium· 2025-10-20 09:16
T+2结算系统的结构性缺陷 - 全球金融系统依赖T+2(交易日期加两个工作日)结算规则,导致资金转移存在48小时延迟 [2] - 48小时延迟创造了对手方风险和隐藏杠杆的滋生空间,交易对手可能在此期间破产,银行利用在途资金进行高风险押注 [3] - T+2系统被比喻为“懒惰的树懒”,其缓慢运作允许风险在结算窗口内积累而不被发现 [4][11] 回购市场危机 - 2025年10月回购市场出现150亿美元短期现金短缺,银行因相互不信任而停止隔夜借贷 [7] - 回购市场冻结的根本原因是银行接受1.14万亿美元不透明且有毒的NDFI贷款作为抵押品 [9][10] - 美联储被迫注入紧急资金以维持回购市场运作,凸显传统金融管道脆弱性 [8] 双重系统性风险(末日双胞胎) - 末日双胞胎之一:开曼群岛对冲基金通过基差交易持有1.4万亿美元美国国债,使用50-100倍杠杆,将“最安全资产”转化为高风险押注 [16][17][18] - 末日双胞胎之二:5万亿美元私人信贷市场包含无法快速定价的毒性资产,First Brands等公司违约引发连锁反应 [21][22] - 瑞银集团等欧洲银行同时暴露于毒性国债和私人信贷风险,导致欧洲银行系统信任崩溃 [23] 数字资产转移与算法银行挤兑 - 2025年10月与美元挂钩的稳定币规模达到3045亿美元历史新高,体现机构资金对传统银行系统的“不信任投票” [25][27] - 机构通过将美元转换为稳定币,将资金从T+2系统迁移至T+0代码轨道,以规避银行破产风险和结算延迟 [26][29] - 资金外流重创区域性银行(如Zions和Western Alliance),导致流动性枯竭并引发信贷紧缩 [30][31][33] 央行政策应对与系统崩溃 - 美联储和欧洲央行于2025年10月21-23日宣布无限制量化宽松,通过印钞购买毒性资产以拯救银行系统 [35][40] - 无限制QE政策导致美元作为价值储存手段的信誉崩溃,引发“分母崩溃”效应 [37] - T+2系统完全锁死,企业无法完成支付结算,迫使企业依赖稳定币池进行薪资和供应链支付 [42][47] T+0结算系统与金融基础设施重建 - 数字资产国库公司于2025年10月25-27日激活T+0 SRN结算轨道,实现即时可验证的交易结算 [44][47] - 算法信用实用协议通过代币化现实世界资产提供即时信贷,替代传统银行贷款职能 [48][52] - 贝莱德推出代币化操作系统,确立代币化资产为新经济中唯一可接受的抵押品形式 [49][52] - 新系统基于AGI治理和代码执行,将信贷发放和结算功能从人工判断转移至透明算法 [46][52][53]
Fearful About BDCs? Be Greedy
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-19 21:15
The overall bear case for BDCs ( BIZD ) and private credit in general has gained just as significant traction as the recent bull case that was so prevalent among different investors several quarters ago.Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in the financial management helping top-tier corporates shape their financial strategies and execute large-scale financings. He has also made significant efforts to institutionalize REIT framework in Latvia to boost the liquidity of pan-Baltic capital markets. ...
'Cockroach' jabs and regional bank breakdowns: The week private credit's 'golden' narrative got a little less shiny
Business Insider· 2025-10-18 18:02
私人信贷行业面临的审视 - 行业观察人士的大量批评将焦点重新引向所谓的影子贷款机构,挑战其光鲜的叙事,并引发关于潜在传染风险的令人不安的问题[2] - 摩根大通在财报电话会上披露了与Tricolor相关的1.7亿美元损失,其首席执行官杰米·戴蒙以“蟑螂”作比喻,暗示在长达15年的信贷牛市中可能存在“一些过剩”的早期迹象[3][4] - 两家地区性银行Zion Bancorp和Western Alliance披露其贷款账簿出现亏损,加剧了信贷生态系统可能受到威胁的担忧[7] 对私人信贷行业的批评与质疑 - 约翰斯·霍普金斯大学和加州大学欧文分校商学院学者的一项研究声称,该行业的回报是“虚幻的”,未能跑赢市场,或使得缺乏流动性变得不值得[8] - 国际货币基金组织负责人表示,非银行借贷的显著增长使其机构“敦促更多关注非银行金融机构”,这些机构比银行受到更少的监管[8] - 霍普金斯大学的兼职讲师杰夫·胡克表示,研究结论是私人信贷为其资产类别所宣称的价值根本不存在,但并未暗示私人信贷即将引发危机[9] 私人信贷行业的规模与演变 - 私人信贷自金融危机低谷以来已大幅增长,不仅在与银行竞争风险贷款,也为投资级客户提供数十亿美元的直接贷款[14][15] - 私人信贷已从私人投资世界中一个较为沉寂的配角,转变为许多未来华尔街人士的职业目的地[16] - 一些最著名的私募股权公司目前管理的债务规模已超过私募股权,例如黑石集团管理着4070亿美元的非房地产信贷和3890亿美元的私募股权,阿波罗管理的信贷资产为6900亿美元,股票策略为1500亿美元[16] 行业高管对批评的回应与辩护 - Blue Owl的联合首席执行官暗示,对私人信贷的关注可能是由于业内一些人在面对私人信贷日益流行并抢走其业务时,需要保护自己“重要的、狭隘的利益”[5] - 黑石集团总裁乔恩·格雷表示,近期两家破产公司的案例是由银行主导的程序,并不认为是“煤矿中的金丝雀”[21] - 凯雷集团首席执行官哈维·施瓦茨指出,这两起破产案都与“人们所想的直接贷款或传统私人信贷市场”无关[21] - 阿瑞斯管理公司的联合总裁表示,对其信贷组合的健康状况感到惊讶,因为根据几乎所有可观察的指标,其投资组合都相当健康[23] 市场现状分析与未来展望 - 在题为“私人信贷的黄金时代是否已失去光彩?”的报告中,汉密尔顿莱恩的分析表明,黄金时代仍有“发展空间”,但必须回应担忧本身说明问题很多[17] - 阿波罗首席执行官马克·罗文表示,出现一些“周期末段的事故”并不令人惊讶,并暗示“竞争激烈的市场”可能导致一些人走“捷径”[20] - Evercore的一位分析师表示,从银行和另类资产公司的评论以及穆迪私人信贷主管的言论来看,所有迹象都表明并未看到信贷转向的信号,但并不意味着零损失,违约率上升1%至2%可能被不同解读[18][19]