Paul, it seems that markets of various states are thinking very hard about things around the release of the statement and the press conference yesterday. Maybe risk assets just woke up this morning and said, okay, well, we'll take that more rate cuts. What did you take away from the Fed.Well, we could probably make this a ten minute hit rather than a three minute countdown to unpack everything that went on with the Fed on it. But I'll give you a couple of my thoughts on it. A couple of takeaways.One, the Fe ...

The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections reveal a surprisingly shallow path for interest rate cuts in 2026, signaling that the policy will remain restrictive as the central bank contends with a resilient economy and sticky inflation.Fed Forecasts Less Than A Single Cut In 2026?The committee's median forecast for the federal funds rate shows a decline to only 3.4% by the end of 2026, a mere 0.2 percentage point drop from the 3.6% projected for year-end 2025.While 20 bps is less than a standard cut o ...

The Federal Reserve just cut its benchmark rate for the first time since last year, but that doesn't guarantee mortgage rates will keep droppingFILE - A development of new homes in Eagleville, Pa., is shown on April 28, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)LOS ANGELES -- Hoping that mortgage rates will keep dropping following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since last year? Don't bank on it.As expected, the central bank delivered a quarter-point cut Wednesday and projected it would lower its benchmark rat ...

By Davide Barbuscia and Suzanne McGee NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors look set to face a volatile few months ahead after the Federal Reserve resumed interest rate cuts and opened the door to further easing but tempered its message with warnings of sticky inflation, sowing doubt over the pace of future policy adjustments. Some investors are now less certain that a rapid shift to lower borrowing costs will materialize, potentially dampening optimism that stocks and bonds would get a strong lift from easier p ...

公司/行业 * **公司**：摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 作为研究发布方，其经济学家团队（包括 Michael T Gapen, Sam D Coffin 等）对美联储政策进行解读 [3] * **行业**：研究内容聚焦于宏观经济、货币政策及美国联邦储备系统（美联储）的动向，这些是影响所有行业和金融市场的重要宏观因素 [1][3][4] 核心观点与论据 * 美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.0% - 4.25% [3][4] * 降息理由是基于对就业下行风险上升的判断，声明指出“就业增长已放缓”、失业率“略有上升”，且“就业下行风险有所增加”，此次降息反映了“风险平衡的转变” [3][4][8] * 最新的经济预测摘要（SEP）显示利率中值预测为今年还将有三次降息（总计75个基点），但内部存在分歧，投票结果为10比9，仅以一票优势维持此中值预测 [3][5] * 通胀预期被上调，2026年核心PCE通胀预测从2.4%上调至2.6%，预示着通胀将在更长时间内运行于2.0%的目标之上 [1][10] * 政策立场被解读为鸽派，因为美联储选择支持劳动力市场而容忍更高的通胀 [1][3] * 会议出现一位持不同意见者（Governor Miran），他倾向于本次会议降息50个基点，并且根据点阵图解读，他支持今年总计降息150个基点 [3][5] 其他重要内容 * 美联储对经济增长的预测小幅上调，2025年实际GDP（4Q/4Q）预测从1.4%上调至1.6%，2026年从1.6%上调至1.8% [10] * 对失业率的预测小幅下调，2026年失业率（4Q平均）预测从4.5%下调至4.4%，2027年从4.4%下调至4.3% [10] * 对未来利率路径的预测全面下调，2025年底联邦基金利率预测从3.9%下调至3.6%，2026年底从3.6%下调至3.4%，2027年底从3.4%下调至3.1% [10] * 与会者认为经济前景的不确定性普遍较高，并且对GDP增长的风险看法倾向于下行，而对失业率和通胀的风险看法则倾向于上行 [18][26][27]

September 17, 2025 08:27 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Press conference quick reaction: Toward a more neutral stance Although the Fed remains data dependent, we think it has begun a modest recalibration of its policy stance. Key Takeaways | M Press conference quick reaction: Although the Fed remains data dependent, we think it has begun | Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0571 +1 212 761-8573 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Hoping that mortgage rates will keep dropping following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since last year? Don't bank on it. As expected, the central bank delivered a quarter-point cut Wednesday and projected it would lower its benchmark rate twice more this year, reflecting growing concern over the U.S. job market. Here's a look at factors that determine mortgage rates and what the Fed's latest move means for the housing market: How rate cuts affect mortgage rates Mortgage rates ...

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed down -0.10%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.57%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.21%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.09%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) fell -0.14%. Stock indexes settled mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials climbing to a new all-time high.  The broader market gave up an early advance and turned lower Wednesday afternoon when bond yields rose on hawk ...

Stay right there because I will and we got a great great guest, a perfect guest actually to answer this because I'm going to say something too that that and and this is one of the reporters I can't remember who followed up with Jerome Pal and said you I'm confused. I was listening to Jerome Pal. I was a little confused.He didn't sound as focused as maybe I would have liked him to be. But doesn't matter what I think. Let's bring in Richard Fischer, former Dallas Federal Reserve president, also a CBC contribu ...

Let's go around the table, talk about sort of put, you know, policy to action. Tim, your take on the Fed today. It was a hawkish cut.Um there was no drama. In fact, that's what we wanted. It's what the market wanted. It's what the institution of the Federal Reserve wanted.And uh um I I I think if you look at what the market had priced in it had absolutely priced in 25, but it was it was it was inching for more than two rest of year and one in 26. Um I don't think it's a disaster. the downgrade of of the lab ...