GDP Growth

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Not all market bubbles — or crashes — are the same
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-05 20:51
市场择时策略的局限性 - 市场择时策略要求投资者在正确的时间退出市场并在正确的时间重新进入 这非常困难[1] - 即使市场估值过高 择时操作也可能导致低卖高买[1] - 回顾历史市场崩盘 择时交易可能是一种危险的亏钱行为 因为股票短期走势难以预测[2] - 市场倾向于奖励那些能够长期投入时间的投资者 而非试图择时的投资者[6] 历史市场事件分析 - 1996年12月5日格林斯潘发表演讲时标普500指数为749点 互联网泡沫破裂后指数在2002年触底776点 该低点仍高于格林斯潘演讲时的水平[3] - 互联网泡沫期间 标普500指数从2000年3月24日的峰值到2002年10月9日的低点下跌了49%[4] - 1987年10月19日黑色星期一 道指单日下跌508点 跌幅达22.6% 标普500指数单日下跌20.4%[5] - 2009年3月标普500指数跌至666点低点 发生在房地产泡沫破裂并引发全球金融危机之后[7] 劳动力市场状况 - 根据ADP数据 9月私营企业裁员32,000人 中小型企业裁员抵消了大型企业的招聘增长[9] - 公司9月宣布计划增加117,313个工作岗位 为2011年以来最弱的9月数据 年初至今计划增加204,939个工作岗位 为2009年以来最低[9] - 9月更换工作者的年薪同比增长7.6% 而留任者的工资增长为4.5%[10] - 8月职位空缺数为723万个 略高于7月的721万个 当月有738万失业人员 相当于每个失业人员对应0.98个职位空缺[11][12] - 8月雇主裁员173万人 仅占总就业人数的1.1% 该指标略低于疫情前水平 当月雇主招聘513万人[12][13] - 8月有309万工人辞职 占劳动力的1.9% 辞职率持续低于疫情前水平[14] 消费者情绪与支出 - 9月世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数下降3.6点 消费者对商业状况的评估变得不那么积极 对当前工作机会的评估连续第九个月下降[14][15] - 认为工作"充足"的消费者比例从8月的30.2%降至9月的26.9% 认为工作"难找"的比例维持在19.1%[15] - 截至2025年9月25日 摩根大通Chase消费者卡支出数据较去年同期增长2.4% 美国银行数据显示截至9月27日当周家庭总卡支出同比增长2.2%[16] 房地产市场与利率 - 30年期固定利率抵押贷款平均利率升至6.34% 低于其52周平均水平6.71%[16] - 美国有1.479亿套住房单元 其中8610万套为业主自住 约39%无抵押贷款 大多数有抵押贷款的业主锁定了2021年低利率上涨前的利率[16] - 7月标普CoreLogic Case-Shiller指数显示房价同比上涨1.7% 但环比下降0.1%[17] - 房价年增长率接近或略低于整体通胀率 标志着市场进入更均衡的新阶段[18] 制造业与服务业活动 - 9月美国制造业PMI显示生产连续第四个月增长 但订单增长放缓 成品库存积压[18] - 9月ISM制造业PMI表明该行业处于收缩状态 但收缩速度较上月改善[18] - 9月服务业PMI显示增长略有放缓 但结合制造业的持续增长 表明第三季度年化GDP增长率约为2.5%[19] 宏观经济综合评估 - 经济需求保持积极 受到健康的消费者和企业资产负债表支持 尽管就业创造正在降温但仍为正值[22] - 经济增长已从周期早期的过热水平正常化 超额职位空缺和核心资本支出订单等主要顺风因素已减弱[23] - 硬经济数据与软情绪调查数据出现脱节 尽管情绪相对疲软 但有形消费和商业活动继续增长并创下纪录水平[24] - 由于积极的经营杠杆效应 美国股市可能在未来一段时间内跑赢美国经济 企业通过战略性裁员和AI设备投资调整成本结构 使温和的销售增长转化为强劲的盈利增长[25]
The wealthy are spending more and everyone else is not, says Zeta Global CEO David Steinberg
Youtube· 2025-10-01 19:39
Joining us now is David Steinberg. He's the CEO of Zeta Global. David, we're gonna maybe brand this as David Zeta data.What do you think. I don't know. My my wife and kids might like it, but the uh you know, as you've said, in the current environment, getting access to data is getting harder.And what we're seeing is more and more people looking at private indicacies like the Zeta Economic Index. Yeah, because with you know and now there's all this also it's not just that government data may not happen David ...
Growth & Large-Cap ETFs Worth Considering to Power Your Portfolio
ZACKS· 2025-10-01 15:01
Driven by robust consumer spending and solid business investment, the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter, growing at its fastest pace in nearly two years, according to data by the Commerce Department, as quoted on Reuters.Growing at a 3.8% annualized rate, the second-quarter economic performance was stronger than initially expected. However, the economy’s momentum is slowing under the strain of tariffs and policy risks, per the abovementioned article.Additionally, the Organisation for Economic Co-o ...
India holds rates steady at 5.5% in line with forecast as inflation cools
CNBC· 2025-10-01 04:45
货币政策 - 印度央行将政策利率维持在5.5%不变 [1] - 尽管8月通胀数据低于央行2%至6%的目标区间,为降息以刺激增长提供了机会,但央行仍选择维持利率稳定 [2] 宏观经济表现 - 通胀在2024年第一季度显著缓和 [2] - 由于全球贸易不确定性,经济增长可能在当前财年下半年减速 [2] - 印度6月季度GDP增长7.8%,超出预期 [5] - 高盛将印度2025日历年实际GDP增长预测上调60个基点至7.1%,2026财年预测上调至6.7% [5] 外部贸易风险 - 美国对印度进口商品加征25%的额外关税,使总关税最高达到50% [3] - 受美国关税影响最严重的行业包括纺织品、宝石和珠宝以及海产品 [3] - 对美出口约占印度GDP的2%,但受影响行业为劳动密集型产业,业务恶化可能导致失业 [3] 国内政策应对 - 印度政府于9月22日下调了多项商品的服务税,以在长达一个月的节日季前刺激国内需求 [4] - 降税预计将使快速消费品、汽车和农产品价格更便宜 [4] - 印度国内消费占GDP比重超过60%,使其对出口的依赖度较低 [5] - 商品服务税削减预计将缓解美国关税的影响 [5]
Best-Performing ETF Areas of Last Week That Are Up At Least 10%
ZACKS· 2025-09-30 11:01
Wall Street logged a downbeat performance last week.The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, and the Dow edged lower by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.7%, marking the first weekly loss in four weeks for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, as quoted on CNBC.Inflation Data in FocusAugust’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, came in largely as expected. Core PCE, barring food and energy, rose at an annual rate of 2.9%, while the all-items index recorded a 2.7% ...
Investors should be owning things beyond tech, says Hightower's Stephanie Link
Youtube· 2025-09-29 10:58
All right, joining us right now on the broader markets is Stephanie Link, High Totower chief investment strategist and portfolio manager, also a CNBC contributor. And Stephanie, we did see a down week for the S&P and the NASDAQ last week, but we also got some pretty decent economic data towards the end of the week. Yeah, I feel like I come on every week and the numbers keep ratcheting higher in terms of GDP.I mean, right now the Atlanta Fed tracker is running at about 3.9% for the third quarter. And that fo ...
12 Oversold Growth Stocks to Buy According to Analysts
Insider Monkey· 2025-09-29 06:11
In this article, we will look at the 12 Oversold Growth Stocks to Buy According to Analysts.On September 27, Wharton professor emeritus and WisdomTree senior economist Jeremy Siegel joined CNBC for an interview to discuss the latest PCE report and what the data reveal about the market. He sees the latest economic data as positive for the stock market. The inflation report was in line with expectations, with no upside surprises and year-over-year inflation at 2.9%. Although the inflation is still above the F ...
U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, at a 3.8% pace
Fastcompany· 2025-09-25 20:31
An uptick in consumer spending helped the U.S. economy expand at a surprising 3.8% from April through June, the government reported in a dramatic upgrade of its previous estimate of second-quarter growth. U.S. gross domestic product—the nation's output of goods and services—rebounded in the spring from a 0.6% first-quarter drop caused by fallout from President Donald Trump's trade wars, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The department had previously estimated second-quarter growth at 3.3%, and forec ...
U.S. Stocks Extend Pullback Ahead Of Key Inflation Data
RTTNews· 2025-09-25 20:13
Following the pullback seen over the two previous sessions, stocks saw further downside during trading on Thursday. The major averages continued to give back ground after ending Monday's trading at new record closing highs.The major averages ended the day well off their lows of the session but still firmly negative. The Nasdaq slid 113.16 points or 0.5 percent to 22,384.70, the S&P 500 declined 33.25 points or 0.5 percent to 6,604.72 and the Dow fell 173.96 points or 0.4 percent to 45,947.32.The continued ...
Singapore core inflation rate comes in softer than expected, hits fresh four-year lows
CNBC· 2025-09-23 05:36
The view from the rooftop pool of the Marina Bay Sands resort hotel, which overlooks the financial district skyline of Singapore.Singapore's core inflation — which strips out prices of private transport and accommodation — posted its softest rise since February 2021, coming in at 0.3% for August as services inflation softened.This was lower than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and lower than the 0.5% seen in the month before.Headline inflation in Singapore came in at 0.5%, down from the 0 ...