报告行业投资评级 - 对CFME的评级为卖出 [1][9] 报告的核心观点 - 预计CFME 2025年第二季度收入同比增长22%、环比增长27%至3.08亿元，受益于产品结构升级，包括中高端PCB设备及半导体LDI设备收入贡献增加，二季度毛利率维持40%，预计净利润同比增长12%、环比增长32%至6800万元，但因其半导体LDI业务拓展和认证尚处早期，且在传统PCB和显示LDI市场面临竞争加剧，给予卖出评级 [1] - 预计CFME将受益于全球PCB需求增长及地缘政治不确定性下其PCB客户的生产多元化趋势，其向半导体先进封装和中高端PCB市场的业务拓展以及全球市场扩张是长期潜在增长驱动力 [2] - 上调2025 - 2027年营收预测9%、12%、21%，因CFME将受益于中高端PCB设备和全球市场扩张；上调2025 - 2027年毛利率至40.0%、39.6%、38.7%，反映公司2025年第一季度毛利率高于预期及中高端PCB设备贡献增加；保持运营费用率基本不变，使2025 - 2027年净利润上调10%、16%、23% [3][4] - 估值方面，将基年从2026年预期调整为2027年预期，仍采用折现市盈率法，使用21倍2027年预期市盈率（之前为27倍2026年预期市盈率），以10%的股权成本折现回2026年，更新12个月目标价至66.7元（之前为58.7元），维持卖出评级 [9] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 业务表现与展望 - 2025年6月，CFME在JPCA SHOW 2025展示HDI、IC封装基板等PCB设备解决方案；2024年宣布在泰国设立新子公司和新工厂，以把握全球市场增长机会 [2] 财务数据预测 |年份|营收（百万元）|营收增长|毛利率|运营收入（百万元）|净利润（百万元）|净利率| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |2025E|1761|85%|40%|381|328|19%| |2026E|2242|27%|40%|469|400|18%| |2027E|2754|23%|39%|527|460|17%|[3][10] 估值方法与目标价 - 12个月目标价66.7元基于折现市盈率法，对2027年预期每股收益应用21倍市盈率，以10%股权成本折现回2026年，目标倍数源自全球SPE同行的远期每股收益增长与市盈率的相关性 [9][14]

报告行业投资评级 - 股票评级为“增持”（Overweight），行业观点为“与大市同步”（In-Line），目标价为37.50美元，较目标价的上涨/下跌空间为28% [5] 报告的核心观点 - 短期趋势上，5月中国地区单位GMV环比4月改善，得益于新SKU销售良好、配送订单增加和季节性因素，但食品聚合商补贴短期内扰乱了产品定价，公司专注产品和品牌建设，早期开发市场业务趋势良好 [2] - 管理层战略重点为中国市场可持续增长和海外扩张，产品策略坚持“茶拿铁”SKU并创新，稳定自身系统定价，评估特许经营利润分享计划，在上海试点新品牌“茶纪现代茶” [7] - 中国市场长期目标约10000家门店，未来2 - 3年每年净增约1000家，海外市场长期目标超10000家门店 [8] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 业务表现 - 5月中国单位GMV环比4月改善，新SKU销售、配送订单和季节性因素是驱动因素，食品聚合商补贴影响产品定价，早期开发市场业务趋势健康 [2] - 茶纪现代茶初始试验显示约60 - 70%的杯型组合来自纯茶产品 [3] 战略规划 - 战略重点是中国市场可持续增长和海外扩张，产品坚持“茶拿铁”SKU并创新，稳定自身定价，评估特许经营利润分享计划，试点新品牌“茶纪现代茶” [7] - 中国市场长期目标约10000家门店，未来2 - 3年每年净增约1000家，海外市场长期目标超10000家门店 [8] 估值方法 - 基本情况采用现金流折现模型得出，关键假设为12%的加权平均资本成本（WACC）和2%的长期增长率，与中国消费类公司覆盖范围一致 [9] 风险因素 - 上行风险包括单店GMV随客流量超预期反弹、新SKU受消费者欢迎、海外扩张速度超预期 [11] - 下行风险包括门店表现不佳、开店速度慢于预期、地缘政治紧张 [11] 行业覆盖公司评级 - 报告列出了中国/香港消费行业多家公司的评级和价格，如安琪酵母、波司登、茶颜悦色等 [66][68]

14 June 2025 | 12:16AM HKT China semis: XDLK (688582.SS, Not Covered): MEMS gyroscope and accelerometer on growing client adoption; expanding to new We talked with XDLK (688582.SS, Not Covered) management recently. The company provides MEMS IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit) including MEMS gyroscope and MEMS accelerometer for industrial, energy, and innovative applications (autonomous driving, eVTOL, robotics etc.). The company delivered 1Q25 revenue growth of 292% YoY, driven by new MEMS gyroscope orders, and ...

Oil Comment: Tracking Iran Risks 1 The Brent oil price closed at $66.9/bbl on June 10. On June 11, President Trump said he was less confident about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. 2 The EIA estimates that about 2.6 million b/d of capacity from the Saudi and UAE pipelines could be available to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a supply disruption. Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com 18 June 20 ...

18 June 2025 | 8:32PM EDT US Daily: June FOMC Recap: Taking Higher Tariffs on Board, Cautiously (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis n FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth fore ...

15 June 2025 | 1:53PM HKT Potential opportunities on other technology platforms: Referring to technology platform-based collaborations between China pharma / biotech and MNCs (see summary in Exhibit 1), the upfront payment of US$110mn for the announced AZ/CSPC collaboration is consistent with the historical range of US$10mn to below US$200mn, while the total deal size of US$5.3bn was the highest since 2023. With the current collaboration announced to date, we see growing recognition from MNCs for CSPC's tec ...

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 US EQUITIES -- Observations into month-end 美国股票——⽉末观察 Some key points we'd highlight => 我们要强调的⼀些要点 => S&P Gamma: We think there's currently close to $15bn of gamma in the market, and a high concentration on strikes slightly below the market's current level – so we think the chart below does a good job of illustrating the shape of the S&P dealer gamma curve (dealers get longer on sellos / less long on rallies), but ...

Market Insights 市场洞察 Ruminations - Macro, Micro, Markets 沉思录——宏观、微观、市场 Here we go again. ⼜来了。 The market has another issue to digest, another left tail to compartmentalise and/or overcome and investors have to once again decide on whether they stick or twist. 市场⼜有新问题需要消化，⼜⼀个尾部⻛险需要划分和/或克服，投资者必须再次决定是坚持还是调整。 Vix back above 20, Oil near $75 and yet the S&P is basically flat to a week ago. VIX 重回 20 以上，油价接近 75 美元，⽽标普指数与⼀周前基本持平。 市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marquee The middle eastern escalation has triggered ...

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 China Feedback: HK Pullback After Big Run; A-shares Barbell Strategy; Lujiazui Forum Takeaway 中国反馈：港股⼤涨后回调；A 股杠铃 策略；陆家嘴论坛要点 A-share market traded around flat WTD amid the middle east tension which is partially offset by the support from ongoing Lujiazui Forum, while H-shares lagged on the back of elevated risk-off activities. Key highlights this week: 受中东局势紧张影响，A 股本周⾛势基本持平，部分被陆家嘴论坛的持续⽀持所抵消，⽽ H 股因避险情绪 升温表现落后。本周主要亮点： ...

17 June 2025 | 11:17AM HKT Navigating China Internet: Top AI/apps tracker: steady video-generation AI monetization; solid May engagement trends China's top AI applications maintained healthy user engagement trends in May with key investor focuses around 1) Rising use cases scenario: increasing AI adoption across to-C/to-B use cases, demonstrated by continued ramp of AI app engagement led by DeepSeek and Bytedance's Doubao, improving penetration of AI functionalities into existing app portfolios of internet ...