It would be a lot easier to talk about the economy and what it looks like in the US if we were getting official government out. We know that Friday we were supposed to get that jobs report. Another jobs report delayed.When you take a look at all the different sources that we have alternative measures of data and you try to really string them all together. What is the state of the labor market right now. I would say squishy.Employment growth has been very soft, but obviously there's been a slowdown in supply ...

Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. We are 30 minutes into the US trading day.Let's get to the three market catalyst we're watching this hour. First up, Palunteer weighing on stocks as concerns rise over sky-high valuations. We'll dig into those results ahead. Plus, we'll hone in on Uber and Spotify as those companies report results.And we'll hear from Fed Governor Austin Goulby as he cast doubt on the odds of a December rate cut. Taking a look at the major averages here, we definitely have a risko ...

Okay, on that note, let's bring in Kevin Green who joins me now for a look at what we're seeing as far as the reaction in the market this morning. So, stocks pulling back, no doubt, on some of these comments that we heard from David Solomon and also Ted Pick out in Asia overnight. Sort of talking about the potential for a 10 to 20% correction over one to two years.What do you make of that KJ. >> Yeah, I think it's the prudent thing to do if you are CEO, especially one uh you know, a couple of CEOs from very ...

This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with: What we're watching What we're reading Economic data releases and earnings In the absence of key government data, corporate earnings are even more important. This quarter's results have taken on greater importance, offering a guidepost as investors navigate ongoing trade battles, lingering inflation, and a flagging labor market. A midseason snapshot suggests corporates are humming ...

美联储政策立场 - 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒主张根据数据制定政策，并认为应忽略关税等暂时性通胀因素 [1][2][4] - 沃勒明确支持在12月进行降息，因当前数据指向需要宽松政策，并驳斥了政策制定处于“迷雾”中的说法 [11] - 政策重点在于应对劳动力市场疲软，而非当前通胀水平，因预期通胀将回归2%的目标 [10][11] 通胀现状与评估 - 截至9月的CPI年率为3%，核心CPI也为3%，而3个月变化显示整体CPI为3.6%，核心CPI年化率达6% [4] - 过去一年食品杂货价格上涨3.2%，通胀仍是选民最关心的问题之一 [5] - 若剔除估计的暂时性关税影响，美联储关注的核心PCE通胀率约为2.5%，略高于目标但预计将下降 [9][10] 经济增长前景 - 美联储长期经济增长预测为1.8%，这基于过去20年平均1.6%至1.8%的生产率增长 [14][15] - 对人工智能和量子计算等技术进步持乐观态度，预计将在未来12至24个月内显著提升生产率，但短期内尚未体现 [15][16] - 讨论了通过减税、即时折旧和放松管制等供给侧政策实现3%至3.5%增长的可能性，但量化其对整体经济增长的具体影响较为困难 [13][22][23] 供给侧政策观点 - 放松管制类似于降息，能降低资本成本，从而刺激经济增长 [21] - 回顾了上一届政府末期实现3.5%增长且通胀低于2%的时期，当时低通胀环境下加息受到质疑 [23] - 美联储内部有支持供给侧政策的观点，工作人员在估算潜在GDP时会考虑这些因素 [18][20]

Stephen. >> Yeah. More hawkish comments this morning from the Fed.Dallas Fed President Lori Logan saying this economic outlook did not call for cutting interest rates. She says she will find it difficult to cut rates again in December. Not a voter this year, but a voter next year.She says that is true unless inflation is falling faster or the labor market is cooling more than appears apparent now or than forecast. The labor market, she says, remains balanced. It's cooling slowly.inflation is too high and it ...

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces if not the most difficult challenge of his time in office at least the trickiest in his final months as head of the all-powerful U.S. central bank.Fresh off his surprisingly tough talk Wednesday on the potential for another interest rate cut in Decem ...

美联储利率决议 - 美联储决定将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%的新区间，这是今年第二次降息[8] - 此次为分歧决策，美联储理事史蒂芬·迈伦（Steven Myron）主张更大幅度的50个基点降息，而堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德（Jeff Schmid）则倾向于维持利率不变[8][9] - 美联储官员宣布将于12月1日停止缩减资产负债表[9] 经济与劳动力市场状况 - 美联储官员认为经济活动正以温和步伐扩张，此前一个月曾指出增长有所放缓[9] - 劳动力市场方面，自8月以来官方数据因政府停摆而缺失，但美联储认为就业状况未有太大变化，今年就业增长放缓，失业率微升但仍处于低位[10] - 近期的指标与上述发展相符，但就业的下行风险在最近几个月有所增加[11] - 有观点指出，若剔除医疗保健部门，过去四个月其他私营部门共削减了92,000个职位；ADP数据显示，员工人数在1至49人的小企业削减了约110,000个职位[50][51] 通胀与政策前景 - 通胀虽较2022年中期的高点显著缓解，但仍高于2%的长期目标；基于消费者物价指数（CPI）的估算显示，截至9月的12个月内，核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数上涨2.8%[90] - 美联储主席鲍威尔强调，12月会议进一步降息并非既定事实，政策没有预设路径，决策将取决于后续数据、经济前景演变和风险平衡[96][103][242] - 美联储内部对未来政策路径存在强烈分歧，部分成员更关注通胀仍处于3%的高位，而另一部分则更担忧就业市场走弱[24][75][110] 市场反应 - 利率决议公布后，主要股指小幅走高，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约120点，标准普尔500指数上涨约0.2%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上涨约0.6%[1][17] - 但在鲍威尔发表谨慎言论后，市场回吐涨幅，道指转而下跌约120点，标普500指数基本持平，纳斯达克指数维持约0.4%的涨幅[213][214][248] - 债券市场方面，10年期国债收益率上升7个基点至4.1%附近，30年期国债收益率上升5个基点至4.6%附近[217][218] 人工智能（AI）投资与科技行业 - 英伟达（Nvidia）市值首次达到5万亿美元[18] - 美联储主席鲍威尔认为当前对AI基础设施的大规模投资并非特别受利率敏感，而是基于对其长期生产力和盈利能力的评估[144][145][235] - 微软与OpenAI达成协议，微软将获得OpenAI公共 benefit corporation 27%的权益，该实体估值约1350亿美元；OpenAI承诺未来在Azure云服务上投入2500亿美元[253][255] 政府停摆与数据缺失 - 政府自10月1日起停摆，导致关键经济数据（如非农就业报告）延迟发布，美联储决策缺乏部分官方数据支持[4][5][69] - 美联储表示将依赖私人部门调查（如ADP就业数据）、各区域联储的经济状况褐皮书（Beige Book）等其他信息来源进行评估[52][70][120] - 数据缺失可能增加政策不确定性，鲍威尔暗示在"迷雾中驾驶"时或需更加谨慎，这可能影响12月的决策[150][152][190]

Hi, Victoria Guida from Politico. Um, on AI, I'm just wondering, you know, it seems like a lot of the economic growth that we've been seeing is fed by investments in AI. So, how worried are you about what a sudden contraction in tech investment would mean for the overall economy.Is there enough strength in other sectors. And um, specifically, are there are there any lessons that you take from the 1990s in in how you might uh approach what's happening right now. Yeah, this is this is different um in the sens ...

much Liza Schley with ABC News. Uh what is your explanation for why the job market is weakening right now and what will this rate cut do to improve the job market. >> So the I think the um there are two things affecting the job market and one of them is just a dramatic reduction in the supply of new workers.So, and that's two things. That's uh declining labor force participation, which is a cyclical thing. And then there's declining immigration, which is just a big policy change that actually began in the l ...