TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT VIETNAM REPORT ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEX MISSION (APRIL 22–26, 2024) SEPTEMBER 2024 Prepared By Niall O'Hanlon Authoring Department: Statistics DISCLAIMER "The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of Vietnam (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. This document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF E ...

STAFF CLIMATE NOTES Destination Net Zero: The Urgent Need for a Global Carbon Tax on Aviation and Shipping Simon Black, Ian Parry, Sunalika Singh, and Nate Vernon-Lin IMF STAFF CLIMATE NOTES 2024/003 ©2024 International Monetary Fund Destination Net Zero: The Urgent Need for a Global Carbon Tax on Aviation and Shipping IMF Staff Climate Notes 2024/003 Simon Black, Ian Parry, Sunalika Singh, and Nate Vernon-Lin* DISCLAIMER: The IMF Staff Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on criti ...

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT MONTENEGRO Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (July 29–August 9, 2024) AUGUST 2024 Prepared By Joji Ishikawa and Robert Pupynin Authoring Departments: Statistics Department DISCLAIMER "The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of Montenegro (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. This document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be d ...

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Divergence in Post- Pandemic Earnings Growth: Evidence from Micro Data Sophia Chen and Do Lee WP/24/222 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2024 OCT 9A9 DNIXAOV © 2024 International Monetary Fund WP/24/222 IMF Working Paper Rese ...

行业投资评级 - 报告未明确给出行业投资评级 但指出服务业通胀持续高企可能对美联储实现2%通胀目标构成挑战[6][7] - 研究强调劳动力市场紧张对服务业通胀的持续影响 暗示相关行业可能面临政策收紧压力[16][21] 核心观点 - 美国服务业通胀在2021-2022年显著上升 2024年8月仍维持在2.5%水平 高于美联储目标[6] - 服务业通胀与工资增长存在显著滞后相关性 峰值相关性出现在10个月跨度[7][16] - 劳动力市场紧张度(V/U比率)每增加1个对数点 会导致10个月内服务业通胀(不含住房)上升8.8个百分点[16] - 疫情期间劳动力市场紧张平均解释了2022Q3-2023Q1期间68.7%的服务业通胀[16] 数据与方法 - 使用Homebase专有微观数据 覆盖100万家企业900万员工 聚焦零售、酒店等服务业[11][12] - 结合BLS价格数据 构建MSA级别的工资-价格传递模型[12] - 采用Bartik冲击作为工具变量 基于Indeed平台1.42亿条职位发布数据构建劳动力市场紧张度指标[15] - 创新性地使用区域性数据解决传统菲利普斯曲线估计偏差问题[10][14] 关键发现 - 工资增长对价格传递存在非线性特征 在V/U>1的劳动力短缺地区传递效应更强[17] - 服务行业工资增长1个百分点 对应服务业通胀(不含住房)上升0.32个百分点[16] - 结果在控制家庭收入、住房财富等变量后保持稳健[18] - 与使用QCEW官方数据的验证结果具有一致性[21] 政策启示 - 劳动力成本占服务业总成本比重较高 工资增长的持续性可能延长通胀压力[8] - 研究支持"价格菲利普斯曲线在紧张劳动力市场下更陡峭"的结论[10][16] - 地缘政治导致的供给侧冲击可能加剧通胀管控难度[8]

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Parametric Pension Reform Options in Korea Daniel Baksa, Boele Bonthuis, Si Guo, and Zsuzsa Munkacsi WP/24/223 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 9A9 2024 OCT © 2024 International Monetary Fund WP/24/223 IMF Working Paper Asia ...

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Reported Social Unrest Index: September 2024 Update Philip Barrett WP/24/225 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2024 OCT 9A9 DNIXAOV © 2024 International Monetary Fund WP/24/225 IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department R ...

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2024 OCT A New Dataset of High- Frequency Monetary Policy Shocks Marijn A. Bolhuis, Sonali Das, and Bella Yao WP/24/224 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 9A9 © 2024 International Monetary Fund WP/24/224 IMF Working Paper Strat ...

STAFF CLIMATE NOTES Harnessing Renewables in Sub-Saharan Africa: Barriers, Reforms, and Economic Prospects Kaihao Cai, Thibault Lemaire, Andrea Medici, Giovanni Melina, Gregor Schwerhoff, and Sneha Thube IMF STAFF CLIMATE NOTES 2024/005 ©2024 International Monetary Fund Harnessing Renewables in Sub-Saharan Africa: Barriers, Reforms, and Economic Prospects IMF Staff Climate Notes 2024/005 Kaihao Cai, Thibault Lemaire, Andrea Medici, Giovanni Melina, Gregor Schwerhoff, and Sneha Thube* DISCLAIMER: The IMF Sta ...

行业投资评级 - 报告对欧洲电动汽车行业的投资评级为中性 [3] 报告的核心观点 - 欧洲国家设定了雄心勃勃的碳排放减少目标，包括向电动汽车（EVs）的转型，这可能会减少对欧洲大型且互联的汽车行业的需求 [3] - 报告旨在评估欧洲向电动汽车转型与关键宏观经济结果之间的权衡，并分析哪些政策可能加剧或缓解这些权衡 [3] - 报告使用先进的宏观经济和贸易模型分析了欧洲向电动汽车转型的宏观经济影响，以及政策如何缓解或加剧这些影响 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 1. 介绍 - 欧洲联盟（EU）设定了雄心勃勃且急需的气候目标，计划在21世纪中叶使其经济实现气候中性，包括向电动汽车的快速转型 [7] - 欧洲是世界上最大的汽车制造商之一，但在电动汽车生产方面尚未获得竞争力，主要投资于内燃机（ICE）技术 [7] - 欧洲向电动汽车的转型可能会对依赖汽车行业的欧洲经济体产生经济影响 [7] 2. 让过去和现在为可能的情景提供信息 - 报告通过分析日本在1960-1980年代的崛起和中国的崛起，为模型情景提供了历史背景 [21] - 日本在1960-1980年代的崛起主要由石油价格冲击和收紧的排放法规推动，而中国的崛起则由绿色转型和巨大的生产力增长差异推动 [28] - 报告假设中国在欧洲市场的份额增加与日本在1970年代在美国市场的份额增加相似，但速度更快 [28] 3. 模型规范和情景 - 报告使用全球综合货币和财政模型（GIMF-GVC）和动态多国多部门定量贸易模型来分析欧洲向电动汽车转型的潜在经济影响 [30] - GIMF-GVC模型包括匈牙利、捷克、德国-法国-意大利、欧洲其他地区、美国、中国和世界其他地区 [37] - 贸易模型包括68个经济体，包括27个欧盟成员国和欧洲其他地区 [37] 4. 模拟结果 - 报告发现，欧洲整体向电动汽车的转型在短期内对GDP的影响较小，但在长期内接近零 [17] - 报告指出，保护主义政策，如对中国电动汽车的关税，将提高电动汽车转型的GDP成本 [17] - 报告认为，中国对欧洲电动汽车生产的外国直接投资（FDI）流入将有助于缓解这些经济体的损失 [17] 5. 气候影响 - 报告分析了保护主义政策对排放的影响，发现即使对中国车辆实施全面禁令，额外排放量也仅占2023年欧盟汽车行业排放量的4% [64] - 报告强调，保护主义的主要缺点是增加了电动汽车转型的经济成本，前提是气候政策保持不变 [64] 6. 结论 - 报告总结了欧洲汽车行业面临的两个重大结构性转变：绿色转型和来自中国的电动汽车行业竞争加剧 [67] - 报告指出，保护主义政策将放大模拟的GDP成本，因为保护欧洲汽车行业免受中国竞争的GDP收益不足以补偿欧盟消费者购买力下降和其他经济部门因成本更高和汇率升值而造成的损失 [70] - 报告强调，中国对欧洲电动汽车生产的外国直接投资和欧洲汽车行业潜在的生产力提升可以减轻受影响最严重的欧洲经济体的收入损失 [70]