However, Mr Powell said his colleagues’ forecasts were “subject to uncertainty” and insisted monetary policy was “not on a pre-set path”.Markets are anticipating another couple of cuts from the Fed by the year’s end, with more to follow in 2026. In its statement announcing the September rate cut, the Fed said only that it would “carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”. About half the Fed’s rate-setters expect another two or more quarter-point cuts this year, taking th ...

Howard Schneider with Reuters. So, um, as you mentioned a minute ago, some margins of the job market would suggest that the slides already happening. Black unemployment rate in August was above 7%.Uh, declining work week, difficulty among co college graduates finding work, high rising youth unemployment. Why do you think a quarter percentage point now is going to arrest that. Well, I I hadn't say that I thought a quarter point would make a huge difference to the economy, but you got to look at the whole pat ...

CONCLUDED Last Updated: 4 hours ago S&P 500 Heads Lower as Rally Reverses After Fed Decision By Connor Smith The stock market's Fed decision rally is already reversing. The S&P 500 was down 0.3% after spiking in the wake of the central bank's decision to lower interest rates by a quarter point. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.9%. The Dow was up 277 points, or 0.6%, and falling. The move was widely expected by markets, and stocks had already hit fresh highs based on expectations of the cut. Now, traders are ...

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 17, 2025: Dow Gains After Fed Decision Last Updated: Updated 4 hours ago Stocks Edge Higher After Fed Votes for Rate Cut By Network Connor Smith Stocks perked up after the Federal Reserve said it would cut interest rates by a quarter point for the first time since December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 400 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 was up 0.1. The Nasdaq Composite was still down 0.2%. Heading into the 2 p.m. ET decision, the Dow was up while the S&P and Nas ...

美联储利率决议 - 美联储政策委员会投票决定将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4%-4.25%区间 为自12月以来首次降息 且利率水平降至2022年12月以来最低[3][8] - 这是美联储今年首次降息 旨在降低借贷成本以促进就业并防止失业率激增[2][4] 利率预期与经济预测 - 美联储官员通过季度经济预测释放信号 预计今年剩余时间还将进行两次25个基点的降息 最终使利率区间降至3.5%-3.75%[3] - 较6月上次经济预测时 美联储额外增加了一次降息预期[3] 政策调整背景 - 美联储此前维持利率不变以抑制通胀 但目前通胀年率仍高于2%目标水平[4] - 官员近期更担忧贸易战导致经济放缓 并可能引发失业潮风险[4][8] - 委员会声明指出就业下行风险已上升[5] 决策分歧与政策困境 - 12人委员会投票出现分歧 11人支持降息25个基点 新任委员Stephen Miran主张更大幅度的50个基点降息[5] - 分歧反映美联储在平衡双重使命时的困境：高利率抑制通胀但阻碍就业 低利率刺激就业但可能推高通胀[6][8] - 关税政策对通胀控制和就业保障均构成风险[6] 政治压力因素 - 美联储作为独立央行正面临异常高度的政治压力 特朗普要求降息至少3个百分点[7]

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 17, 2025: Dow Gains After Fed Decision Last Updated: 4 hours ago Treasury Market Is Fully Prepared for a Cut By Karishma Vanjani The Wall Street Journal The move in Treasuries suggest the market is ready for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates again. The 2-year yield, which is most sensitive to changes in rates, has fallen 0.246 percentage points since the Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell, on the morni ...

美联储利率决议市场预期 - 全球加密货币市场高度关注美联储即将公布的利率决定 [1] - 市场普遍预期美联储将至少降息25个基点 主要原因为美国通胀高企及就业市场表现令人失望 [1][3] - 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一个多月前的杰克逊霍尔讲话中曾暗示可能降息 向市场释放了乐观信号 [3] Polymarket预测市场数据 - 基于加密货币的预测市场Polymarket数据显示 交易员认为美联储降息25个基点的概率为91% [2] - 认为降息超过50个基点的概率为6.7% 而利率维持不变的概率仅为2.5% [2] - 若利率不变 将维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间 [2] - 美联储加息超过25个基点的概率甚至低于1% [3] - 此次美联储利率决议事件已吸引超过1.88亿美元的交易额 [4] Polymarket平台背景 - Polymarket是全球最大的预测市场 于2020年推出 [4] - 该平台允许交易者使用加密货币对广泛事件进行预测 包括加密货币价格、选举结果和货币政策等 [4]

美联储利率决议 - 美联储将基准利率下调25个基点 为近一年来首次降息 [1] 市场预期与反应 - 金融市场与行业组织普遍预期降息25个基点 部分投资者曾希望更大幅度降息 [2] - 有观点认为25个基点的降息为美联储预留了进一步操作空间 属于更为谨慎的举措 [4] - 10年期国债收益率在过去45天内已有所下降 显示市场可能已提前消化美联储的下一步行动 [6] 对多户住宅行业的影响 - 此次降息对多户住宅的交易量和新增开发活动的直接影响预计有限 [4] - 投资者当前更关注疲软或负值的租金增长 而非融资成本 全国及供应过剩的阳光地带市场租金复苏持续延迟 [5] - 多数多户住宅贷款定价与10年期国债收益率挂钩 美联储降息理论上降低资本成本 但二者关系并非直接对应 [5]

再融资需求激增 - 抵押贷款再融资申请量上周环比增长58% 较去年同期水平增长70% [1] - 可调整利率抵押贷款再融资活动占比升至12.9% 创2008年以来最高纪录 [2] 利率走势分析 - 30年期固定抵押利率下降15个基点至6.35% 创一年来最大单周跌幅 [4] - 5/1年可调整抵押利率降至5.7% 10年期国债收益率从4.8%峰值回落至4.02% [3][4] 市场活动回暖 - 抵押贷款总申请量增长9.2% 创2022年以来最强单周需求表现 [8] - 住房市场显现转折信号 预计抵押利率年底将降至6.25% [9] 驱动因素分析 - 美联储9月政策会议预期降息直接冲击短期借款成本 [3] - 长期利率同步下行 投资者预期借贷成本将在更长时间内保持宽松 [3]

投资观点 - Capital Wealth Planning创始人兼首席投资官Kevin Simpson基于降息预期正在买入家得宝股票[1] - 该分析师认为美国将迎来新的房屋装修周期[1] - The London Company Large Cap Strategy基金因估值较高和消费及住房活动前景不明朗已退出家得宝头寸[3] 行业前景与驱动因素 - 低利率环境将刺激零售消费者进行疫情后的大规模家电、墙地面覆盖物等升级[2] - 多户住宅和商业地产在过去三年因高利率而停滞的装修需求将随利率下降而释放[2] - 将出现针对新大堂、新电梯等大型改造项目[2] - 老化的住房存量和稳定的房价对家装支出构成积极因素[3] 公司估值与投资考量 - 家得宝的估值达到过去EBITDA的18.6倍[3] - 该股票提供接近3%的股息收益率[2] - 基金选择通过持有劳氏公司来获得行业敞口而非同时持有两家公司[3]