The U.S. Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 2.9% year-over-year for August 2025, in line with market forecasts. The broader PCE index, which includes food and energy, climbed 2.7% year-over-year and 0.3% from the previous month, suggesting price pressures are easing but not fully gone. For Bitcoin, the release lands at a tense moment. The market has already been shaken by stronger U.S. jobs data and robust GDP growth, which has pushed the dollar higher and h ...

通胀数据与美联储政策 - 8月核心PCE通胀率为2.9% 与预期一致 但仍高于美联储2%的目标水平[1] - 个人消费支出保持强劲 消费者在餐饮、娱乐服务等可自由支配领域支出增加 显示经济韧性[1] - 服务通胀特别是医疗保健通胀出现粘性停滞 长期通胀预期面临上行压力[1] - 市场预计美联储将在10月和12月各降息一次 但若经济保持韧性和通胀粘性 12月降息存在风险[2] - 密歇根大学消费者信心指数9月降至55.1% 低于预期 但高收入群体因股市强劲保持稳定支出[5] 关税政策影响 - 新关税政策涉及厨柜等商品税率达50%-100% 但制药公司因在美国建设产能可能获得豁免[2] - 实际关税影响低于理论水平 有效关税率约为9% 远低于18%的理论值 因企业通过转口贸易和成本吸收缓解冲击[11] - 与墨西哥和中国的关税暂停协议将分别于10月底和11月10日到期 届时可能对通胀产生更大影响[2] - 特朗普政府考虑推行"1:1"芯片政策 要求企业在美国生产的芯片数量与进口数量相匹配[5][9] 房地产市场动态 - 新屋销售8月增长超过20% 达2022年以来最快增速 但数据可能存在大幅修正[3] - 抵押贷款利率从年初6.9%的高点降至6.3% 帮助稳定住房需求[3] - 建筑商通过利率买断和其他激励措施应对负担能力挑战 高端市场表现更为强劲[3] - Toll Brothers因专注于东北沿海地区豪华住宅市场 且客户群体财富水平较高 对利率敏感度较低 被分析师看好[3] 科技与AI行业趋势 - 纯存储公司推出FlashBlade产品 声称性能比竞争对手高5倍 专注于企业AI数据存储解决方案[4] - OpenAI年化收入达130亿美元 预计年底将达200亿美元 但年度资本支出计划达600亿美元引发市场担忧[7][8] - 83%的企业领袖认为AI对增长至关重要 但仅11%认为AI将减少工作岗位 多数视为工作流程转型机会[9] - 科技巨头AI投资已开始产生回报 Meta数字广告业务因AI支持实现20%以上增长[7] 航空运输业状况 - 政府 shutdown 可能影响TSA安检效率 但Breeze Airways因主要服务低客流机场受影响较小[13] - Breeze Airways计划1月开通国际航线 利用周六航班空闲运力提供普罗维登斯至坎昆等航线[13] - 超低成本航空公司面临挑战 因使用大型飞机与主流航空公司直接竞争 而Breeze采用137座较小机型差异化运营[14] 媒体行业变革 - 广播电视面临压力 Jimmy Kimmel节目遭Sinclair和Nextar停播 可能加速内容向流媒体转移[11] - 行业整合加速 Hulu将被并入Disney+ Paramount可能收购华纳兄弟探索[12] - 广播公司依赖体育内容特别是NFL保持生存 但周四夜赛已转向亚马逊 更多内容可能转向流媒体[12] - TikTok美国业务估值140亿美元 因字节跳动将保留一半利润 算法和用户内容体验将保持不变[12]

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) has taken "If you build it, they will come" to new heights. Going beyond a conceptual design or even a prototype, the San Diego-based defense contractor set up a factory to build 24 ready-for-action XQ-58A Valkyrie combat drones on the way to winning over both the U.S. Marine Corps and Airbus (EADSY). Those wins… Related news Cathie Wood, ARK Shift Defense Holdings As U.S. Reclassifies Drones 9/18/2025Cathie Wood, ARK Invest add these defense stocks, sell another, ...

BREAKING: Inflation Data Cements Rate Cut Expectations Tesla (TSLA) has rallied nearly 30% this month ahead of global third-quarter vehicle deliveries next month, with analysts handing the EV giant a slew of price-target hikes in recent weeks. On Friday, a Tesla stock super bull said he sees 40% upside based almost entirely on the company's robotaxi rollout. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla bull, on… Related news PCE Inflation Data In Line, Bolsters Fed Rate Cut Outlook (Live Coverage) ...

A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report thrusted financial markets this week, sending the dollar flying while Bitcoin tumbled below $111,000. Initial jobless claims dropped by 14,000 to 218,000 in the third week of September, marking a two-month low, while Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8% from 3.3%. The upbeat economic data lifted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to a three-week high, rising 0.3% on the day, but weighed heavily on risk assets, with Bitcoin now testing support near $111,000. Economic S ...

Lou Whiteman: I'm a terrible person to ask this because it's so boring, Rick. Not because I'm brilliant, not because I don't have terrible mistakes, but rather I don't tend to dabble in the early stage companies that get these great explosions later higher. I assure you, if I would have owned Amazon or if I would have owned Tesla back in the day, I would have sold them, and I would have regretted them now. But I do have a lot of regrets, and I do think there's a lesson there because I share a theme. Two rea ...

美联储政策与市场影响 - 美联储主席鲍威尔在普罗维登斯商会发表讲话 此次讲话是继美联储2025年首次降息25个基点后 市场关注的核心催化剂[1] - 当前联邦基金利率目标区间为4.00%–4.25% 市场对未来政策路径存在分歧 鲍威尔需在高于目标的通胀数据和显现疲态的就业增长之间平衡双重使命[2] - 美联储内部对于宽松步伐存在分歧 部分官员警告不宜过快降息 另一部分则认为就业数据疲弱支持进一步降息 市场将根据鲍威尔的讲话基调判断后续政策倾向[3] 加密货币市场反应 - 比特币现货ETF在9月23日录得3.63亿美元净流出 以太坊ETF也有7600万美元资金流出 显示机构投资者可能因担忧鲍威尔发表鹰派言论而进行对冲[4] - 比特币价格维持在113,000美元以上 但市场仍显脆弱 此前周一遭遇2.85亿美元多头平仓 为6月以来最严重的单日清算 交易员关注110,000美元关键支撑位[5] - 若鲍威尔立场鸽派可能引发比特币反弹至117,500–118,000美元阻力区 若强调通胀风险则可能使比特币进一步回调[5] 宏观经济背景 - 美元指数持稳于97.40附近 10年期美国国债收益率徘徊在4.15% 两者均反映投资者在鲍威尔讲话前的谨慎态度 通常对比特币等风险资产构成压力[6] - 黄金持续创下新高 资金从加密货币轮动至传统避险资产 表明在通胀对冲叙事中 传统安全资产暂时占据上风[7]

With the first rate cut of 2025 in the books, the prospect of additional cuts only adds to the wall of worry for fixed income investors who are dealing with enough market uncertainty. ...

Oracle ( ORCL ) has confirmed it will run TikTok US; is naming two CEOs to accommodate the handoffFed Governor Stephen Miran, the 'lone dot' on the Fed Dot Plot, said that Fed rates should be 2.00% lower in his first public speech post-FOMC.The index went from 6,200 to 6,300 in just 15 trading days. From there, it went to 6,400 in 17, 6,500 in 13, and 6,600 in 12. If it were to hit 6,700 today, it would have done so in just 6 trading days.The S&P 500 is sitting just off intraday highs, inching closer and cl ...

With stocks notching all-time highs here and abroad, investor skittishness is likewise going through the roof – after all, there’s more to lose than ever, right? Here are four particularly niggling and nervous questions I have been fielding of late. Let’s try and sort out which are worth our time – and, of course, our money.Don’t the economy and stocks need the Fed to cut rates NOW?Might Fed cuts benefit America? Sure! Cuts can steepen the yield curve — the gap between short-term and long-term interest rate ...