通胀数据与美联储政策 - 最新通胀数据不太可能影响美联储政策走向 [1] 特朗普政治动向 - 特朗普推动撤换美联储理事丽莎·库克 [1] 媒体行业并购动态 - 派拉蒙与Skydance正考虑向华纳兄弟探索公司提出收购要约 [1]

Key economic data released Thursday indicate that the U.S. economy may be on the brink of stagflation, a challenging mix of sluggish growth, a weakening labor market, and rising prices. Despite these concerns, crypto market participants remain optimistic, focusing instead on anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and signals from traditional markets as drivers for higher crypto valuations. "The underlying driver of this market cycle is a monetary tailwind, and that remains intact, despite the risk of stag ...

In a separate reading, initial jobless claims for the week ended September 6 stood at 263,000, at a near four-year high. "Inflation has been sticky ... Whether we would call it stagflation or not, people have different definitions of it. But certainly we are in a period that is unusual relative to the last several years, as the job market is slowing down considerably while inflation does not follow suit," said Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings in New York. Sheth predicted the Fed will red ...

Joining me now to discuss is Rebecca Wallser, the president of Walser Wealth Management. Rebecca, thank you for being with us today. First, I'd love to just get your thoughts on CPI and the numbers that came out this morning.Yeah, I mean I think it was a little bit hotter than anticipated and that's the 29 number and obviously core stayed pretty much flat 31 and so it's a little bit hotter and it just gives the chairman of the Fed and the Fed reserve governors more consternation between that rock and hard p ...

Michael Kramer leads the investing group Reading the Markets, where he helps a devoted following of members to better understand what is driving trading and where the market is likely heading, both the short and long-term. Features of the investing group include: daily written commentary and videos analyzing the driving factors behind price action; general macro trend education to help members make well-informed decisions based on market conditions, interest rates, currency movements and how they all intera ...

市场动态与资金流向 - 欧洲央行维持利率不变 符合市场共识[5] - 墨西哥在美国压力下对中国汽车征收50%关税 此举被视为讨好特朗普政府 若墨西哥股市近期下跌可能形成买入机会[6] - 早盘资金流向显示亚马逊、谷歌C类股、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉获资金净流入 苹果资金流向中性 SPY和QQQ获资金净流入[7] - 国际能源署将石油供应增长预期从520万桶/日下调至270万桶/日 引发石油抛售[9] - 比特币价格处于区间震荡格局[10] 经济数据与政策影响 - 当周初请失业金人数达26.3万人 远超预期的24万人 创2021年秋季以来最高水平 该指标作为领先指标在模型中权重较高[13] - headline CPI环比上涨0.4% 高于0.3%的预期 core CPI环比上涨0.3% 符合预期[13] - 高于预期的通胀数据结合失业率上升加剧滞胀风险 这对投资组合构成重大威胁[13] - 数据表现使美联储降息50个基点难度加大 但面临强烈政治压力要求忽略数据实施降息[13] - 联邦公开市场委员会将于下周召开会议 北京时间周四凌晨2点公布利率决定 2:30举行鲍威尔新闻发布会[13] 技术指标与市场信号 - SPY的RSI指标为57.73 处于70超买线与30超卖线之间 RSI均值为59.35[2] - 成交量达895,617股 属于放量交易[2] - 图表显示股市继续维持在支撑区1上方运行 但RSI出现顶背离 表明市场创新高过程中内部动能减弱[13] 投资策略建议 - 建议长期持有优质现有头寸 根据风险偏好配置现金、国债或短期战术交易组合作为保护带[10] - 保护带0%代表极度看涨且全额投资 100%代表极度看跌需要积极保护[12] - 传统60/40组合目前不适宜长期债券配置 建议聚焦高质量债券及5年期以内品种 可将债券ETF作为战术而非战略配置[15] - 持有充足现金才能把握新机会 调整对冲水平时考虑对个股设置部分止损 高贝塔股票应给予更大波动空间[14]

市场表现 - 美国三大股指创历史新高 标普500指数上涨0.8%至6,584点 纳斯达克100指数上涨0.7%突破24,000点 道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1.3%至46,080点[1][2] - 罗素2000指数表现突出 单日涨幅达1.5%至2,412.60点[7] - 主要ETF同步上涨 先锋标普500ETF(VOO)涨0.8%至604.49美元 SPDR道指ETF(DIA)涨1.2%至461.58美元 Invesco QQQ信托涨0.7%至584.72美元 iShares罗素2000ETF(IWM)涨1.5%至239.94美元[7] 板块与个股 - 标普500所有11个板块全部上涨 非必需消费品板块领涨 涨幅达1.3% 能源板块表现相对滞后 仅上涨0.1%[3][7] - 涨幅前五个股：新思科技(SNPS)涨11.11% Centene(CNC)涨10.66% 美光科技(MU)涨9.57% 华纳兄弟探索(WBD)涨7.30% 泛林集团(LRCX)涨7.28%[8] - 跌幅前五个股：达美航空(DAL)跌4.30% 甲骨文(ORCL)跌3.38% 网飞(NFLX)跌2.83% CDW公司(CDW)跌2.83% 超微半导体(AMD)跌2.21%[9] 大宗商品与加密货币 - 黄金结束连涨走势 下跌0.2%至3,630美元 白银延续涨势 上涨1.4%至41.70美元/盎司[4] - 原油价格下跌2% 比特币微涨0.3%至114,000美元[4] 利率预期 - 市场预计美联储下周将降息25个基点 10月再次降息概率超90%[2] - Kalshi平台预测2025年12月再次降息概率为63%[3] - 10年期国债收益率降至4% 创五个月新低[3] 经济数据 - 美国8月通胀率同比上升2.9% 每周初请失业金人数激增至26.3万人 创2021年10月以来最高水平[1]

Markets are ignoring a hotter-than-expected inflation report and instead turning their attention to the latest signs that the U.S. labor market is faltering — a shift in focus that points to growing concern about a deeper economic slowdown. Consumer prices rose a bit more than expected August, according to CPI data released Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both the headline rate of 2.9% and the core rate of 3.1% remain solidly higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Normally, that wou ...

LIVE Dow Hits New High as Stocks Stage a Broad Rally Last Updated: 7 min ago Gold Tops Inflation-Adjusted Peak From the 1980s as Stagflation Risks Mount By Martin Baccardax Gold prices extended their extraordinary gains, with bullion prices surpassing their inflation-adjusted record set more than 4 decades ago. Spot gold prices rose 0.1% on the session to $3,656.40 an ounce, topping the inflation-adjusted record of $3,498.77 an ounce established in 1980. The gains followed another set of economic data sugge ...

Welcome to Stocks and Translation, Yahoo Finance's video podcast that cuts through the market mayhem, the noisy numbers, and the hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. I'm Jared Blickery, your host, and with me is Yahoo Financ's Alli Canal, who's here to ask the simple questions that sometimes fly right over my head. And today, we're connecting money, jobs, and profits, and what these mean for stock prices.Right now, our phrase of the day is risk managemen ...