By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August as consumers bought a range of goods and dined out, but a weakening labor market and rising prices because of tariffs pose a downside risk to continued strength in spending. The third straight month of solid gains in sales reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday is unlikely to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates on Wednesday, given the widening cracks in the labor market. It could, ...

Justin Sullivan / Staff / Getty Images Imports of some products are down due to tariff pressures, but AI is keeping computer imports strong. Key Takeaways According to the most recent data, imports increased, driven primarily by spending on computer equipment needed to build AI infrastructure. Computer imports jumped 65% in July compared to the year prior, while computer accessory imports were up 50%. Meanwhile, imports of other products subject to tariffs have declined this year: airplanes are down ...

美联储独立性受挑战 - 82%受访者认为特朗普政府行动旨在限制或消除美联储独立性[1] 其中41%认为直接目标是消除独立性 41%认为旨在限制独立性[2] - 68%认为这些行动将加剧通胀压力 57%预计导致更高失业率 54%预测经济增长放缓 74%认为将削弱美元价值[4] - 39%受访者预测利率将下降 相同比例预测利率将上升 显示对利率影响存在分歧[5] 货币政策预期变化 - 97%受访者预计美联储将降息25个基点 但仅41%认为这是正确决策 28%支持降息50个基点 28%反对任何降息[6] - 联邦基金利率预测从当前4.38%降至2025年底3.66% 2026年进一步降至3.13% 较7月调查多一次降息预期[7] - 通胀预测显示2025年CPI升至3.05% 2026年降至2.8% 持续高于美联储2%目标[9] 经济衰退风险上升 - 经济衰退概率从31%跃升至40% 为四个月来首次上升 55%受访者预计若发生衰退将持续10个月[8] - 2025年经济增长预期维持1.5% 2026年反弹至2% 但预计今明两年失业率将更急剧上升[8] - 就业市场疲软被归因于企业利润率受压 关税被列为经济扩张的首要威胁[10] 关税政策影响评估 - 86%受访者预计关税将导致价格上涨 其中半数认为重大价格涨幅尚未完全显现[9] - 关税成本分担比例为：消费者31% 批发商和进口商29% 零售商23% 出口商仅承担18%[9] - 关税与经济政策不确定性并列最大经济威胁 美联储独立性挑战被视为第三大风险[10]

Now, let's bring in Fox News contributor Liz Peak, who is live on set to discuss this with us. Uh, Liz, the talk of a rate cut and what's suggested by Jay Powell versus what we need. And by the way, to remind everyone, it's the board of governors that makes this decision.We tend to put this as its Fed chair, but it's the board of governors. >> Although typically the governors do go along with the Fed chair. It's pretty in fact the last meeting there were two dissenters and that was like totally shocking to ...

最高法院关税裁决潜在市场影响 - 最高法院关于关税合宪性的裁决可能引发市场动荡并冲击企业界 对国家财政健康构成疑问 [1] - 若法院推翻现有关税机制 市场可能重现4月初特朗普总统解放日关税公告后出现的资产价格暴跌局面 [2] 市场适应与反弹表现 - 当前市场已适应关税对通胀、经济增长和资产价格的影响 并在初期下跌后恢复且创出新高 [2][5] - 维持关税现状将被市场视为保持现状 而推翻关税将造成重大不确定性 市场最厌恶不确定性 [4] 企业财务影响分析 - 若最高法院裁定关税违宪并判决退款 企业可能获得一次性1000亿美元退款提振 [4] - 这种积极影响可能被更大不确定性带来的阻力所抵消 包括可能升级的政治和法律斗争 [4] 投资与消费行为预期变化 - 贸易不确定性上升可能导致企业暂停投资和冻结招聘 家庭可能收紧支出 [5] - 这种行为变化可能传导至股市从近期纪录水平下跌 信用利差进一步扩大 [5] 法律争议核心要点 - 案件核心争议在于特朗普援引1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)实施关税是否越权 [6] - 裁决的性质、范围和细节以及政府回应 均使投资者难以准确分析市场可能反应 [6] 裁决时间框架预期 - 尽管最高法院加速审理 市场参与者预计裁决可能需要一个月或更长时间 [3] - 当前审判期将于2026年6月6日结束 裁决通常会在辩论当期发布 [3]

经济政策影响 - 拜登政府四年任期内中等收入阶层经通胀调整后收入零增长 贫困阶层收入下降 与特朗普首任期内全民收入普增形成鲜明对比[17] - 特朗普政策组合包括减税 放松监管 能源增产等措施降低企业成本 其中汽油价格降至每加仑3美元以下[8][9] - 关税政策可能导致进口商品价格上升 但通过出口价格下降形成对冲 根据学习者对称定理 贸易因素对通胀影响有限[12][13] 通胀数据表现 - 最近三个月CPI同比上涨3.5% 剔除食品能源核心CPI达3.6% 均显著高于美联储2%的目标水平[5] - 商品通胀率为3.0% 剔除食品能源后为2.8% 所有指标均呈现上升趋势[6] - 移民数量从年均300-400万骤降至零甚至负100万 直接影响就业市场数据计算[19][20] 就业市场状况 - 非农就业岗位减少至少150万个 私人部门 payrolls 连续4-5个月零增长 达到克里斯·沃勒所称的"失速速度"[14] - 美联储预计将目标利率下调25或50个基点 市场关注货币政策对通胀的潜在影响[5][10] - 股市表现被视作经济健康度的重要指标 当前市场表现积极[22] 政策效果评估 - 特朗普税改政策更多体现为避免增税而非大幅减税 属于防止经济下滑的防御性措施[23] - 货币政策需要区分一次性价格上涨与持续性通胀 若通过扩大货币基础或降息应对可能加剧通胀[10] - 经济政策转向需要时间见效 不会在特定日期立即显现效果[19]

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Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

关税对通胀影响 - 国会预算办公室认为特朗普关税推高通胀超出最初预期 [1] - 华尔街分析师预期关税驱动价格上涨但尚未实质显现 [1] - 经济自1月以来走弱预计对通胀产生下行压力 [1] 关税长期财政影响 - 预计关税将在十年内通过增加联邦收入使预算赤字减少4万亿美元 [2] - 其中3.3万亿美元来自财政收入 7000亿美元来自避免债务成本 [2] - 该变化将实现赤字的大幅逆转 [2]