核心观点 - 资本正以历史性速度从金融资产向各类硬资产（如黄金、白银、石油、天然气、煤炭）迁移，这可能导致大宗商品交易范围扩大的一年 [2][3] - 通胀将难以消除，并可能在今年反弹，这可能导致美联储政策转向鹰派 [14][15][16] - 解决巨额债务负担的途径是违约或将利率压制在通胀率之下，即金融抑制 [17] 贵金属与比特币表现 - 年初至今，白银和黄金的表现仍大幅优于比特币，比特币在上周末暴跌，回撤幅度达到40% [2] - 贵金属价格已回落至1月12日、13日左右的水平 [1] 大宗商品与硬资产 - 在持续的债券收益率和全球通胀环境下，资本正从金融资产历史性地转向各类硬资产，包括煤炭、天然气和石油 [3] - 整个大宗商品牛市有望继续，并可能从黄金扩展到更广泛的领域 [3] - 动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）是一种大宗商品，也是全球人工智能基础设施的一部分，如果其价格上涨200%至300%，将严重挤压利润率和增长 [6][7] 人工智能与科技股 - 整个人工智能（AI）交易正在破裂，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）需要再次公开露面以稳定市场 [5] - 内存（Memory）价格飙升将冲击“美股七巨头”（Mag 7）的增长 [6] 美元与新兴市场 - 美元可能处于一个长达八年的熊市中，目前可能已进行了两到三年 [9] - 短期内，由于白宫可能对美元走弱和资本外流感到紧张，美元出现逆势反弹的概率很高 [10] - 目前转向新兴市场的交易有些过度，例如巴西股市的表现远超标准普尔500指数 [11] - 新兴市场本币债券（如EMLC）目前处于非常泡沫化的水平 [8][9] 通胀与宏观经济 - 彭博大宗商品指数（BCOM）和ISM支付价格指数均指向今年晚些时候消费者价格指数（CPI）将大幅反弹 [14] - 通胀一旦变得根深蒂固就难以消除，而1.4万亿美元的人工智能资本支出和华盛顿约1.9万亿美元的赤字无法消除通胀 [16] - 最新的采购经理人指数（PMI）数据显示工厂活动相当不错，这可能是当天美元和国债市场波动的原因之一 [13]

Prediction market participants on Polymarket are assigning a 71% probability that Bitcoin will drop below $65,000 in 2026, as the crypto traded around $75,000 following a weekend sell-off that pushed it to nine-month lows. The bearish sentiment reflects a convergence of technical indicators, underwater ETF positions, and analyst warnings that the market has entered a sustained downturn rather than a temporary correction. Multiple analysts now point to support zones between $62,000 and $65,000 as critica ...

Rich Dad, Poor Dad author and investor Robert Kiyosaki said the recent sell-off in gold, silver, and Bitcoin is a buying opportunity, not a warning sign. He pitched the move as a market-wide sale and said he is holding cash and waiting to spread it into all three assets. Kiyosaki compared the current move to consumer behavior during retail discounts. He said weaker hands sell during market crashes, while stronger capital steps in to accumulate. According to him, gold, silver, and Bitcoin have already gone ...

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Bitcoin is rebounding, and it has returned to the higher structure of the high-$90,000 and low-$80,000 area after temporarily falling to the mid-$80,000s. The shift has relieved short-term downside pressure, but market evidence indicates that the rally alone is insufficient to indicate that a new leg of a bull market is beginning. Rather, analysts believe that the next step is whether a number of deeper regime indicators start to reverse to risk-on. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $8 ...

The report concludes that investor positioning “suggests that markets view recent rebounds as stabilisation rather than a return to expansionary conditions.”Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty contributes to volatility, especially the US-driven escalations. Tariff threats resulted in a brief risk-off response across equities, with volatility jumping, but “the rapid pullback in policy rhetoric restored near-term stability.”Moreover, if ETF demand remains low, Bitcoin will likely stay range-bound. Consolidati ...

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The crypto market feels extra slippery after bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% last week, its biggest loss in two months. Yet hope glimmers in bullish derivative bets, now at bargain prices. The drop pushed prices below the steady uphill path, a "bullish trendline" as technical analysts call it, that held the stair-step rise from $20,000 in early 2023 to a record $126,000 last October. The pattern reinforces concerns sparked by bitcoin's sharp pull back fr ...

A recent survey by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode reveals that around one-quarter of both institutional and non-institutional investors view the crypto market as being in a bear phase. Despite this, investors believe Bitcoin (BTC) is undervalued. The insights highlight a complex shift in investor psychology amid mixed macroeconomic signals and ongoing volatility in early 2026. Investors Classify the Crypto Market as Bearish The findings are based on a survey of 148 respondents conducted between De ...

市场情绪与预警指标 - 一项2025年12月的调查显示，高达80%（八成）的美国人至少对即将到来的经济衰退感到轻微担忧[1] - 巴菲特指标（美国股市总市值与美国GDP的比率）目前处于223%的历史高位，当该指标接近200%时，意味着投资者在“玩火”[2] 市场波动中的投资策略 - 在市场繁荣期，即便是资质不佳的投资也可能表现良好，但市场下跌时，弱势公司可能无法渡过难关[4] - 历史表明，强大的公司更有可能抵御市场冲击并生存下来[7] - 在市场波动加剧的时期，确保投资组合做好准备至关重要[9] 公司基本面分析的重要性 - 最佳股票来自健康的公司，而健康的公司拥有强大的基本业务基础[8] - 浏览公司财务报表是评估其财务稳健性的好方法，例如市盈率和债务与EBITDA比率有助于判断公司是否被高估或承担过多债务[10] 历史案例与长期增长潜力 - 21世纪初互联网泡沫破裂是一个显著例子，许多商业模式不可行或存在盈利问题的公司在随后的熊市中崩溃[5] - 以亚马逊为例，其在1999年至2001年间市值损失了近95%，但在触底后的10年里飙升了3500%[6] - 正确的股票不仅能度过熊市，还能实现长期增长[9]

公司股价表现 - Robinhood股票价格在今年已暴跌进入熊市 股价跌至108.75美元的低点 这是自11月24日以来的最低水平 较最高点下跌约30% [1]