Some officials see this as evidence the economy is cooling in a controlled manner, but others worry that deterioration could accelerate quickly if borrowing costs stay elevated for too long.Hiring has cooled and wage growth has slowed, yet unemployment remains low by historical standards.Powell steps down as chair in May, and President Donald Trump has said he will nominate someone who will push for more aggressive rate cuts.It then lowered it by a quarter percentage point in both September and October over ...

美联储利率决议与政策声明 - 美联储连续第三次会议降息 本次降息25个基点[1] - 本次会议出现三张反对票 为约六年来首次[1] - 反对票中 一位委员希望降息50个基点 另两位委员则希望暂停降息[1][2] 利率点阵图与政策路径 - 点阵图显示 美联储预计2026年有一次25个基点的降息 2027年有一次25个基点的降息 之后停止[2] - 美联储认为当前政策利率已接近其认定的中性利率 差距在0.5个百分点以内[2] 经济与通胀预测更新 - 美联储上调2024年GDP增长预期至1.7% 2025年预期为2.3% 2026年及2027年分别回落至2%和1.9%[3] - 失业率预期在2024年升至4.5% 2025年回落至当前水平 2026年及2027年进一步降至4.2%[3] - 2024年PCE通胀率预期为2.9% 2026年降至2.4% 2027年降至2.1% 2028年末达到2%的目标[3][4] - 2024年核心PCE通胀率预期为3.0% 2026年降至2.5% 2027年降至2.1%[4] 政策声明要点 - 声明认为经济活动正以温和步伐扩张[4] - 声明称美联储关注通胀和就业面临的风险 但近几个月就业下行风险有所增加[5] - 声明承认自年初以来通胀已有所上升[5] 政策预期总结 - 美联储在连续三次降息后 下调了未来的通胀预期 但上调了直至未来三年的GDP增长预期[6]

The U.S. Federal Reserve is ending 2025 with a bang, delivering another rate cut for consumers amid an uncertain year for the economy. ...

LIVE Fed Meeting Today: FOMC Expected to Cut Rates. Pay Attention to the 'Dot Plot.' Last Updated: 15 min ago Fed May Be Prepping an Extra Move, Alongside Rate Cut Topics Memberships Subscribe to Barron's Tools Customer Service Cryptocurrencies Data Magazine Markets Stock Picks Barron's Live Roundtable Barron's Stock Screen Personal Finance Streetwise Advisor Directory Saved Articles Watchlist Newsletters Video Center By Karishma Vanjani The Fed is widely expected to take interest rates a notch lower today, ...

It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research. Very good morning to you, Kathy.Great day to have you on ahead of this FOMC decision. Why has the 10ear been up around 420. >> Well, I think what you're seeing is the market isn't buying the need for rate cuts.Um, there are a number of things that go into the 10-year. there's, you know, big term premium, that risk premium people demand to hold longerterm bonds. And I think th ...

比特币作为数字黄金与资本基础 - 核心观点：比特币是数字黄金，一旦被广泛理解，全球信用体系将构建于其上 [1] - 迈克尔·塞勒认为，比特币是比信贷工具更好的长期投资，预计其价格在未来二十年每年上涨30% [5] MicroStrategy的比特币战略与财务表现 - 公司目前以每周近5亿至10亿美元的速度收购比特币 [2] - 在过去14个月里，公司管理了价值600亿美元的资产，已成为标普成分股中第五大资金库，并预计以当前积累速度将在约四到八年内成为最大 [2] - 通过积累的比特币，公司创造了全球首个信贷工具，产生了8亿美元的股息，通过出售股权、比特币商品或公开市场衍生品，支付约10%的股息率 [4] - 公司提供税收递延的10%股息，而相比之下，银行支付不多，货币市场仅支付约4%，美联储易手后支付约3%，且这些收益对投资者需纳税 [6] 监管与金融机构的态度转变 - 整个美国内阁、总统唐纳德·特朗普以及金融和非金融监管机构都支持这一理念 [3] - 美国主要银行，包括曾经的怀疑者如摩根大通、美国银行等，已开始接受这一概念，并正在扩展基于比特币及其衍生品的信贷 [3] 数字资本与数字信用的概念 - 核心理念是构建于数字资本之上的数字信用 [7] - 1940年《投资公司法》使上市公司无法利用证券进行资本化，而需要商品，比特币正是这种商品 [7] - 世界构建于资本之上，运行于信用之上 资本如给予幼儿价值百万美元的城市中心房地产，需等待30年才能变富且无现金流 信用如每月给予他们1万美元 [8] - 公司愿意将30%年化收益中的前10%给予投资者，自身获取剩余部分，这意味着在十年间，公司捕获80-90%的经济效益，并以5:1或10:1的抵押基础用现金进行超额抵押 [6]

The rate-cut scenario has become the prime focus of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday. And, while the markets are already pricing in a quarter-point rate cut, the traders are more interested in the future guidance and the dynamics of policy rates in 2026. ...

股市表现 - 美国股市整体表现平淡 标普500指数下跌0.1% 道琼斯指数同样下跌 纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.3% [1] 债券市场动态 - 债券市场正在发生重要故事 抛售行情已变得令人痛苦 [1] 市场关注焦点与预期 - 投资者在美联储利率决议前对股市操作犹豫不决 [2] - 市场普遍预期美联储将在今日小幅降息 随后将维持利率不变直至四月 [2] - 市场对2026年的利率预期存在不确定性 同时对于明年美联储主席的人选也存在疑问 [2]

Famed tech investor Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, has argued that Bitcoin’s historic four-year cycle will be “disrupted” as institutions have increasingly piled into the asset. Where Bitcoin “regularly dropped 75-90% in its early days,” Wood said in an interview with Fox Business Tuesday, more recently, “The volatility’s going down.” “We think that the move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline,” she added, arguing that, “We may have seen the low a couple ...

Phony bank account change requests. The fastest-growing threat. Fraudsters pose as legitimate suppliers and ask AP to “update” their banking details. Without independent verification, payments are rerouted to criminal accounts. AFP reports a 43% increase in these attacks over just two years, with individual losses often reaching six or seven figures.AI-generated fraud techniques. Deep-fake voice calls and synthetic invoices created with AI make fraud attempts harder to detect. These scams exploit AP’s natur ...