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市场预期与美联储政策 - 市场预计美联储下周将降息25个基点 这一预期已被完全消化[2][3] - 若经济预测摘要(SEP)中2026年利率指引与市场预期的70基点差距未收敛 可能引发失望情绪并导致股市抛售[3][4] - 10年期国债收益率预计将跌破4% 因收益率曲线呈正斜率形态(2年期低于10年期50基点) 这与去年降息周期初期的倒挂形态截然不同[17][18] 科技股与行业配置 - 科技股仍具投资价值 利率下降可能推动资金从货币市场转向股市 进一步强化科技板块表现[6] - 建议同时关注小型股 该类企业因持有更多浮动利率和短期债务 将直接受益于利率下行环境[7][12] - 能源和国际板块也被视为潜在配置方向 以实现投资组合的多元化[8] 小型股投资逻辑 - 小型股在当前经济保持稳健(GDP增长、企业盈利、消费者韧性)的背景下具有配置价值[13] - 许多投资者因大型股表现优异而低配小型股 造成该领域存在配置缺口[14] - 除利率敏感性外 小型股还受益于监管环境宽松和并购活动增加的预期[7] 债券市场观点 - 当前债券市场存在认知误区 去年降息初期收益率曲线严重倒挂 而当前曲线呈正斜率预示不同走势[16][17] - 随着美联储开启降息周期 整条收益率曲线都将下移 这与去年政策失误的情形形成鲜明对比[16][18] - 劳动力市场出现真正疲软迹象 这将对股市增长构成风险 强化债券的防御性配置价值[10][11] 市场走势预测 - 标普500指数目标位维持在6800点 尽管上半年出现波动 但对该目标始终保持不变[2][8] - 9月下旬通常是市场最疲软时期 建议通过配置长久期债券来对冲股市潜在回调风险[9] - 市场强度难以忽视 但已定价大量积极因素 存在美联储令人失望的空间[2][4]

If you like to see more ideas, please subscribe to the premium service "Value in Corporate Events" here and try the free trial. In this service we cover major earnings events, M&A, IPOs and other significant corporate events with actionable ideas. Furthermore, we provide coverage of situations and names on request!Shares of Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: FIGR ) have made a strong public debut, as the blockchain-enabled financial disintermediator is looking to disintermediate financial services, ...

LIVE Dow Slips After Hitting Record High Last Updated: 28 min ago Gold Holds Near All-Time Highs Ahead of Fed Meeting Next Week By Giulia Petroni, Dow Jones Newswires Gold prices hold close to record highs as signs of a softening U.S. labor market cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting. Futures rise 0.2% to $3,680 a troy ounce, up by nearly 1% this week. "The market believes that softer economic data and specifically weak jobs numbers mean a cut is a done ...

Americans are drowning in debt — $1.2 trillion, as of the second quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That staggering figure is up 5.87% from last year. Factors for the rise in debt include economic conditions, inflation and consumer spending habits. But no matter the reason, people need relief. See Next: 3 Signs You’ve ‘Made It’ Financially, According to Financial Influencer Genesis Hinckley Trending Now: These Cars May Seem Expensive, but They Rarely Need Repairs One way t ...

MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (NYSE: AMP) has been named by Newsweek as one of "America's Greatest Companies†for 2025, recognizing the firm's excellence in business performance, leadership and innovation. The ranking evaluates U.S. companies across key pillars including financial strength, stock performance, workforce culture and performance and investment in innovation. "We're honored to be recognized by Newsweek for our enduring commitment to excelling as a high-pe. ...

QUEBEC CITY--(BUSINESS WIRE)--iA Financial Corporation Inc. (TSX: IAG) today announced the appointment of Johanne Papillon and Yousry Bissada to its Board of Directors, effective September 23, 2025. Johanne Papillon has over 25 years of experience in the Canadian financial services industry. From January 2020 to December 2022, she was Senior Vice-President, Business & Financial Implications, IFRS 17/9 of Sun Life Financial Inc., where she was responsible for identifying and optimizing the b. ...

Following the strong upward move seen in the previous sessions, stocks may give back ground in early trading on Friday. The major index futures are currently pointing to a slightly lower open for the , with the S&P 500 futures down by 0.1 percent.Profit taking may contribute to initial weakness on Wall Street following yesterday's rally, which lifted the major averages to new record closing highs.Overall trading activity may be somewhat subdued, however, as traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve's monet ...

On CNBC's “Halftime Report Final Trades,” Joshua Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, said Rocket Companies, Inc. RKT looks great and he is staying long on this stock. The stock has officially broken out, he added.According to recent news, Rocket and the Bank of Montreal have extended and expanded the existing Master Repurchase Agreement, effective Thursday.Jim Lebenthal, partner at Cerity Partners, named Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL as his final trade.Delta reaffirmed its earnings outlook ...

转自：新华财经 •西南期货表示，欧洲央行将存款机制利率维持在2%不变，将主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率维持在 2.15%和2.40%不变，均符合预期。欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，经济增长得益于内需的韧性。调查显示 制造业和服务业正在增长。劳动力市场仍是经济的有力支撑。政府支出将提振投资。贸易协议的影响只 有随着时间推移才会更加明朗。近期的贸易协议降低了不确定性。当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关 税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。各国央行的 购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国7月非农数据大幅不及预期，劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储 有望开启降息，为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。 •独立金属交易商Tai Wong指出，美国就业疲态限制了金价大幅回调的空间，因为投资者更倾向于将黄 金视为对经济放缓的防护盾。总体而言，美国宏观经济数据虽带来短期波动，但最终转化为对黄金的支 撑，推动其在高位企稳。黄金在未来几个月的前景仍具建设性，这不仅源于降息预期，还包括全球不确 定性如地缘政治风险的潜在放大。值得注意的是，如果通胀数据进一步超出预期，可能会短暂扰动这一 预期，但当前就业疲软的权重 ...