U.S. stock futures were swinging on Thursday following Wednesday’s declines. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.A wave of disappointing earnings guidance and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions rattled investor confidence. The Donald Trump administration is considering new restrictions on exports to China that would target products either made with or containing U.S.-developed software. Additionally, the administration is reportedly in talks with several U.S. quantum computing companies to take ...

Financial expert Suze Orman has unveiled a strategic shift that could dramatically increase retirement income for millions of Americans. Read More: Dave Ramsey Warns: This Common Habit Can Ruin Your Retirement Find Out: 10 Genius Things Warren Buffett Says To Do With Your Money In her podcast, “Dividend Paying Stocks vs. Treasuries,” Orman makes a compelling case for choosing dividend-paying stocks over traditional Treasury bonds — a move that could boost after-tax income by more than 30%. The Numbers Do ...

A sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the US economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday, a sign that the Fed will likely cut its key interest rate twice more this year.Powell said in written remarks that despite the federal government shutdown cutting off official economic data, “the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting,” when the Fed reduced its key rate for the first time this year.Fed officials at that meeting al ...

WASHINGTON (AP) — A sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday, a sign that the Fed will likely cut its key interest rate twice more this year. Powell said in written remarks that despite the federal government shutdown cutting off official economic data, “the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting,” when the Fed reduced its key rate for the first time this year. Fed off ...

好的，请阅读以下根据您提供的电话会议记录整理的关键要点 涉及的行业与公司 * 行业涉及宏观经济 货币政策 房地产市场 固定收益 股票市场 ETF 大宗商品 国防 核能 量子计算 电信基础设施 工业机械 互联网零售等[1][3][8][110][112][114][115][117][119] * 公司包括美银美林全球研究部及其内部各行业分析师团队 提及的具体上市公司有NVR DHI 等房屋建筑商 Dycom CRH Caterpillar Vistra Amazon等[55][59][114][117][119] 核心观点与论据 * 股市前景乐观 历史数据显示在历史高点买入标普500指数一年后平均回报为13 6% 五年后为27 6% 与不在高点买入相比并无劣势[9][11] * 经济数据出现分化 硬数据保持韧性 软数据疲软 消费者支出在劳动力市场降温的背景下依然强劲 美银研究所数据显示高收入群体工资增长达4% 为四年多来最高[9][10][12] * 市场存在冻结领域 家庭持有19 6万亿美元现金 现金与负债比率达到1比1 为1991年以来最高杠杆水平 现房销售维持在400万套的金融危机时期低位 共同原因是高利率[20][21][22][27] * 参考沃尔克时代经验 在成功抑制通胀后的大幅降息曾促使股市在1985年后以年化31%的速度上涨并实现翻倍 当前若想解冻市场可能需要30年期抵押贷款利率降至5% 10年期国债收益率降至3 25% 美联储利率降至1 2%[31][32][33][45][46] * 美银研究部的基本预测是到四季度末10年期国债收益率为4% 美联储利率为3 9% 但考虑到中期选举 政策制定者可能采取更激进的宽松政策 如降低利率 关税减免 重新规划分区等[3][38] * 若出现政策驱动的"大再杠杆" 对小盘价值股 房屋建筑商 长期国债 新兴市场债务 黄金及金矿商构成利好 小盘股相对大盘股的远期市盈率仅为0 73倍 低于0 99倍的历史平均水平 房屋建筑商市净率为1 5倍 处于历史平均水平[4][67][71][73][74] * 黄金面临短期技术性回调风险 但长期看好 目标价为4000美元 盎司 央行购金处于历史最长购买狂潮 黄金ETF可能存在550亿美元的潜在资金流入缺口[90][91][92][93][94] * 全球91%的央行正在降息 这应能支持增长周期 预计到2026年全球制造业PMI将达52[18][19][26] 其他重要内容 * 美银动态审慎收益策略在9月份将16 7%的现金头寸调整为高收益市政债券 过去12个月回报率为6 0%[100][102] * 股票ETF估值处于高位 中位数远期市盈率为16 3倍 比长期平均水平高1个标准差 为疫情以来最高[105][106][108] * 量子计算领域潜力巨大 理论价值可能高达2万亿美元甚至全球GDP水平 同时能耗极低[115][116] * 国防 核能 电信基础设施 工业机械 互联网零售等行业存在特定投资主题和分析师看好的公司[110][112][114][117][119] * 文件包含大量风险提示 说明所述交易想法和投资策略可能产生重大风险 并非适合所有投资者 美银证券与其研究报告所涵盖的发行人有业务往来 可能存在利益冲突[7]

Treasury bonds, the dollar and gold are affected when a key U.S. ally no longer trusts America to protect it. ...

The 10-year Treasury yield was basically flat at 4.14%, and the 2-year Treasury yield lost 1 basis point to 3.594%. The 30-year bond yield rose just over one basis point to 4.7447%. One basis point equals 0.01% and yields and prices have an inverse relationship.U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Wednesday as investors monitored the consequences of the government shutdown after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on the federal funding bill.The U.S. government shut down after the Republican-contr ...

LIVE Dow Set to Open Up Ahead of Powell's Fed Speech Last Updated: 27 min ago Treasury Bonds Nudge Higher With Powell, 2-Year Auction in Focus By Treasury bonds have been falling for most of the past 5 days, pushing benchmark 10-year note yields around 15 basis points higher. The central bank lowered its benchmark lending rate by a quarter point, marking the first reduction in 9 months, but also lifted its near-term forecasts for growth and inflation. The mixed messaging suggests the Fed may focus more acut ...

长期国债收益率变动 - 10年期国债收益率本周最高跳升至4.145%，此前曾短暂跌破4% [1] - 30年期国债收益率交易于约4.76%，高于本周早些时候的低点4.604% [1] - 债券价格下跌导致收益率上升，因价格与收益率呈反向关系 [3] 美联储政策与市场反应 - 美联储将基准贷款利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25% [2] - 债券交易员将此视为“利好出尽”的卖出机会，推动长期债券收益率走高 [2] - 长期债券交易员不希望美联储降息，因通胀高于2%目标且经济稳健，降息可能意味着央行忽视通胀风险 [3][4] 收益率上升的影响 - 长期收益率上升会影响住房和汽车等大额购买的抵押贷款以及信用卡成本 [6] - 本周美联储降息后，抵押贷款利率随之上升，此前在央行行动前曾触及三年低点 [6] - 建筑商Lennar第三季度营收未达华尔街预期，并对本季度交付量给出疲弱指引，其共同首席执行官指出面临持续的市场压力和整个第三季度大部分时间的高利率 [8] 债券市场的决策逻辑 - 债券投资者基于对更大局面的判断做决策，关注未来降息路径和 perceived 中性利率 [9] - 债券市场需要确信央行将大幅降息后才会真正做出反应 [10] - 长期美国收益率也受国际同类债券收益率走高的影响 [10] 收益率与经济的信号关系 - 收益率下降通常预示经济衰退即将来临 [11] - 本周收益率跳升部分归因于失业救济申领人数下降，暗示近期经济衰退风险降低 [11] - 债券市场实际上只拥抱坏消息，甚至是“可怕的消息” [12]

股市与国债收益率关系 - 股市在国债收益率上升的环境中表现坚挺 [1] - 历史经验表明这种积极态势可能难以持续 [1]