I ventured into investing in high school in 2011, mainly in REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, starting a fascination with markets and the economy that has not faded despite the years. More recently I have been combining long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts. I approach investing purely from a fundamental long-term point of view. On Seeking Alpha I mostly cover REITs and financials, with occasional articles on ETFs and other stocks driven by a macro trade idea.Analyst’s D ...

As of 2025, I've got over 10 years of researching companies. In total, throughout my investing life, I estimate that I researched (in depth) well over 1000 companies, from commodities like oil, natural gas, gold and copper to tech like Google or Nokia and many emerging market stocks, which I believe could help me provide useful content for readers. After writing my own blog for about 3 years, I decided to switch to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where I researched hundreds of different companies ...

核心观点 - 亚马逊已从单纯的电商公司转型为拥有云计算、广告和娱乐等多引擎业务的帝国 [1] - 电商业务增长放缓且利润率低，但广告业务正成为新的高增长高利润引擎 [3][9] - 公司正在通过物流效率提升和低价电商策略应对新兴竞争对手的挑战 [6][7] - 长期来看，高利润业务如广告和云计算将成为主要盈利来源 [13] 电商业务现状 - 北美地区2025年Q2销售额同比仅增长8%，国际业务增长5%，远低于2010年代的高速增长水平 [4] - 核心电商业务(在线销售、实体店和第三方服务)增长率降至5-6% [4] - 2025年Q1净销售额达1260亿美元，但运营利润仅68亿美元，利润率5.4% [5] - 面临Temu和Shein等新兴低成本电商平台的激烈竞争，尤其在服装、美妆和家居用品品类 [6] 电商业务应对措施 - 物流网络效率提升，配送速度加快且单件成本降低 [7] - 推出低价电商平台Amazon Haul以应对新兴竞争对手 [7] - 需要证明能够维持适度增长并逐步提高利润率 [8] 广告业务发展 - 2025年Q1广告收入同比增长18%至139亿美元 [9] - 广告业务具有高利润率特点，可能超越零售业务对利润的贡献 [9] - 独特的优势在于能够捕捉用户的即时购买意图，转化率高于搜索和社交平台 [10] - 拥有大量第一方购买数据，为品牌提供精准营销平台 [10] - 在Prime Video中引入广告，覆盖数亿Prime会员，成为全球最大广告支持流媒体平台之一 [11] 广告业务优势 - 拥有完整的客户旅程闭环：从广告曝光到产品搜索再到购买 [12] - 闭环归因模型可精确追踪广告转化效果 [12] - 例如用户可在Prime Video看到产品，通过Fire TV点击广告，最终在亚马逊App完成购买 [12] 公司长期前景 - 零售业务仍是重要组成部分，但云计算和广告等高利润业务将成为主要盈利来源 [13] - 若能稳定电商业务并让高增长业务带动整体发展，股价仍可能持续增长 [14] - 理解各业务板块的增长差异对判断公司未来至关重要 [14]

投资策略与组合管理 - 专注于长期价值投资 寻找国际市场上被错误定价的股票 目标组合收益率为4% [1] - 过去5年表现优异 通过深入参与国际市场获得回报 [1] - 投资组合提供实时更新 每月新增交易 季度财报分析 [2] 研究服务与团队背景 - 提供24/7问答服务 定期全球市场新闻报告 会员个股建议反馈 [2] - 团队分享高确信度且冷门的发达市场投资机会 注重下行风险控制 [3] - 投资理念强调非相关性回报 在当前经济环境下追求超额收益 [3] 投资风格定位 - 纯粹多头策略 不涉及做空或衍生品交易 [3] - 面向价值投资者 提供投资视野拓展和灵感启发 [1] - 分析师团队独立运作 无持仓冲突 [4]

These dividend stocks are coiled springs for an economic recovery across key industries.Some of the biggest investing mistakes are driven by emotion, such as panic-selling shares in quality companies, selling a winning stock too soon just because it has run up, or buying shares in a hot stock just to make a quick buck without having a long-term investment thesis. But there are ways that you can reduce the effect of emotion on your decision-making process.Stocks that pay dividends can help take some of the e ...

Amplitude's AI agents could take its growth to the next level.Amplitude (AMPL -8.69%), the digital product analytics specialist, keeps building momentum quarter after quarter. The company just reported its third straight quarter of accelerating revenue growth as its platform strategy takes shape following earlier additions of product features like session replay, which allows clients to see how customers move through their websites, and guides and surveys, which let clients add a pop-up bubble to prompt cus ...

小盘股表现与预测 - 2024年初华尔街知名分析师Tom Lee预测Russell 2000指数一年内将上涨50%，但实际全年总回报率为11.5%，显著落后于标普500指数的25% [1] - Russell 2000成分股平均市净率仅为1.8倍，远低于标普500成分股的4.9倍，两者估值差距创1990年代末科技泡沫以来最大 [4][5] - 2024年初小盘股相对大盘股的市净率估值处于25年最低水平，但利率下降幅度未达预期导致预测失效 [2] 利率政策影响 - 美联储推迟至2024年末才开始降息，累计仅降息75个基点，远低于市场早期预期 [2] - CME FedWatch工具显示市场预期未来一年将累计降息5次，首次降息可能在2025年9月启动 [6] - 低利率环境对小盘股更有利，因其债务占比更高且能吸引原配置于存款凭证等低风险产品的资金 [7] 小盘股投资逻辑 - 当前估值差距可能带来长期超额回报机会，Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF未来12个月或存在50%上涨空间 [4][9] - 小盘股受益于特朗普政府的宽松监管环境，竞争壁垒可能降低 [8] - 标普500指数中轻资产科技巨头权重过高，其较高市净率具有结构性合理性，但当前差距仍超出合理范围 [5]

I aim to invest in companies with perfect qualitative attributes, buy them at an attractive price based on fundamentals, and hold them forever. I hope to publish articles covering such companies approximately 3 times per week, with extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates.I manage a concentrated portfolio targeted at avoiding losers and maximizing exposure to big winners. This means that often I'll rate great companies at a 'Hold' because their growth opportunity is below my threshold, or their d ...

This cloud specialist fell big time following its latest quarterly report, but it can regain its mojo in the long run.Data streaming platform provider Confluent (CFLT -3.31%) saw a sharp drop in its share price this year, which was blamed on slowing growth. Things went from bad to worse following the release of the company's latest quarterly results.Confluent reported its second-quarter results on July 30. The stock shed almost a third of its value the following day and also touched a 52-week low on Aug. 1. ...

生产布局调整 - 公司长期将组装线和零部件采购集中在中国、印度和越南 [1] - 美国政府明确警告企业必须将生产迁回本土否则将面临高额贸易壁垒 [1] - 政治环境变化导致特朗普政府对印度加征关税而印度是公司iPhone美国市场的主要组装地 [1] 美国本土投资计划 - 公司承诺未来四年在美国投资6000亿美元包括今年早前承诺的5000亿美元和新增的1000亿美元计划 [2] - 核心举措是新设立的美国制造计划旨在推动供应商和合作伙伴将生产迁回美国 [2] - 预计该计划直接创造2万个就业岗位并通过供应链网络间接带动更多就业 [2] 战略执行细节 - CEO强调将持续在美国投资、招聘和开发核心技术 [3] - 计划建立本土芯片供应链2025年将在12个州的24家工厂生产超过190亿颗芯片 [3] - 与康宁、德州仪器、安靠科技等企业合作扩展美国制造能力 [3] 实施挑战 - 美国大规模电子组装面临劳动力成本高、技术工人短缺及关键供应商仍集中在亚洲的障碍 [4] - 短期内难以实现iPhone整机美国组装将优先本土化高价值零部件而保留海外最终组装 [4] 政策与市场影响 - 公司获得特朗普政府关税豁免包括针对印度进口产品新征的25%关税保护了核心产品线成本 [5] - 这一转型可能开启长期战略重塑既增强公司在华盛顿的政治地位又重构全球供应链网络 [5]