Holly Newman Croft. Welcome back, Holly. Good to have you.Thanks. Good to be here as always. It's quite a setup for Fed day with the stock market at record highs, the 10-year yield back down to 4%, gold up 40% into the year.H how do you view the risk award into the Fed. I think what's really interesting is how the shift in focus from the market has been on inflation and what the Fed's going to do to now a weakening labor market in a slowing economy and what the Fed is going to do. The bond market is telling ...

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite edged down less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 0.3%, reflecting cautious market sentiment ahead of the Fed’s highly anticipated interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday .The Fed’s meeting was underscored by unusual political drama when an appeals court blocked President Trump from removing Fed governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to participate in the two-day event. New Fed governor Stephen Miran was also sworn in just in time to join the ...

Tuesday, September 16, 2025Ahead of today’s opening bell, new economic data should help color in the lines of what we expect the Fed will do at its next monetary policy meeting, which starts today and concludes with a new Fed funds rate tomorrow afternoon. The new figures out this morning are warmer than expected: will they matter to the Fed?Retail Sales Double Expectations for AugustThe August print on Retail Sales came in at +0.6% this morning, double the +0.3% expected and equalling the upwardly revised ...

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate cut this year on Wednesday despite signs of tariffs pushing inflation higher amid rising concerns about the labor market. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are expected to cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first since December 2024, which would lower the target range to 4% to 4.25%.Markets have priced in a cut, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 4% ...

Bloomberg / Contributor / Getty Images Dave & Buster's warned it might not be able to cover the possible costs of inflation, tariffs, and other expenses Key Takeaways Dave & Buster's Entertainment missed profit and sales forecasts as comparable store sales fell. The game-themed restaurant also warned that it might not be able to cover the possible costs of inflation, tariffs, and other expenses. New CEO Tarun Lal said he will focus on boosting sales and cash flow. Shares of Dave & Buster’s Enterta ...

货币政策预期 - 巴西财政部长预计未来几个月将开始降息 因外汇前景改善 [1] - 央行在7月停止紧缩周期 此前将基准Selic利率上调450个基点至15% 为近二十年最高水平 [3] - 超过100名经济学家的周度调查显示 利率预计将保持稳定至12月 以控制长期超过3%目标的通胀 [3] 汇率表现 - 美元兑雷亚尔汇率从年初的5.70改善至目前的5.30附近水平 [2] - 汇率水平虽影响政府税收 但带来利率与汇率平衡的乐观前景 [2] 经济指标展望 - 总统任期至2026年累计通胀预计首次低于20% 将创历史最低记录 [4] - 任期年均经济增长率接近3% 失业率处于历史低位 [4] - 这些因素使巴西财政状况较上届政府时期更加强劲 [4]

美联储政策预期 - 市场预计美联储将至少降息25个基点 可能达到50个基点[4] - 联邦基金利率期货显示年内剩余时间可能累计降息75个基点[16] - 10年期国债收益率约为4% 长期债券收益率走低[6] 经济预测与通胀展望 - 经济预测摘要将重点关注明年利率路径和通胀重新定价[5][8] - 通胀可能持续保持在3%水平 但若工资增长和GDP增速超过通胀则对经济有利[14][15] - 关税政策可能造成持续性通胀压力 而非一次性冲击[20] 美元与贵金属市场 - 美元指数跌至7月以来最低水平 通常预示近期激进降息[7] - 黄金创历史新高 因作为通胀对冲和地缘政治风险避险工具[9][10] - 央行持续购买黄金并减持美债 零售交易商增加期货合约[11] 股票市场表现 - 标普500指数突破6600点 短期目标位6645 支撑位6600[22] - 波动率预期上升 因季度到期日和VIX期权交易活跃[23] - 历史模式显示FOMC会议前波动率上升后下降可能形成上涨动力[24] 行业个股动态 - Oracle股价上涨 因市场猜测其可能参与TikTok交易获得托管服务[26][27] - 其他社交媒体股票如Meta表现良好 显示市场已提前消化相关消息[28][29] - TikTok平台已成为美中贸易谈判中的重要筹码[28]

The latest CNBC Fed survey is out. Steve Leeman uh joins us now with more. Hey, Steve.>> It's nice to hear you being excited as I am about this, Joe, with the Fed meeting today amid considerable disagreement among respondents to the CNBC Fed survey, not over what the Fed's going to do, but what they should do and growing concern over President Trump's intentions for Federal Reserve independence. Here's the Fed expectations chart. 97% think the Fed's going to cut by 25, but only 41% think the Fed should cut ...

The USD is lower vs all the major currencies to start the trading day and one day ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Trump nominee for FOMC board Stephen Miran was approved and will participate in the FOMC rate decision culminating with the decision at 2 PM tomorrow. The expectations is that he would dissent for a larger cut than the expected 25 basis points. Miran has also advocated for the benefits of the US dollar moving lower for manufacturing. That may be a little bit of what were seen in trading today. ...

消费者信用状况变化 - 美国消费者因通胀和高利率承受财务压力 导致整体FICO评分小幅下降约2点 [1] - 信用评分在600至749分区间的人口占比从2021年的38.1%下降至2025年的33.8% [1] - Z世代成年人信用评分下降幅度最大 主要受学生贷款压力驱动 [2] 学生贷款拖欠情况 - 学生贷款拖欠率在2023年创下历史新高 [2] - FICO监测的2100万客户中 超过10%有学生贷款还款到期 [2] - 其中超过10%的借款人出现还款拖欠情况 [2] 行业观点分歧 - 部分大型银行认为消费者财务状况良好 信用质量恶化迹象有限 [3] - 尽管就业市场出现降温迹象 但银行仍保持乐观看法 [3] 信用健康指标分析 - 平均FICO信用评分仍保持在715分的历史高位附近 [4] - 平均FICO评分被视为信用健康的滞后指标 [4] - 未来平均信用评分面临诸多潜在风险 [4]