美联储政策预期 - 预计美联储将释放鹰派降息信号 市场定价2024年降息约70个基点 但美联储可能仅暗示年内降息两次 2025年再降息两次 [1] - 鲍威尔可能避免直接否定市场预期 但不会提供明确的前瞻指引 特别是对10月会议降息20个基点的市场预期不予置评 [2] 市场关注焦点 - 市场将重点关注会议中的异议投票 尤其是新任官员Miran的货币政策立场 其可能提出75或100个基点的降息异议 [3][4] - 若出现100个基点的降息异议 虽概率较低 但将影响市场对未来政策路径的预期 [4] 资产配置策略 - 当前约20万亿美元现金及现金等价物面临再投资决策 货币市场账户4%的收益率可能因终端利率降至3-3.25%而失去吸引力 [5][6][9] - 经济强弱将决定资产偏好：若经济走弱则长端债券更具配置价值 若经济保持强劲（航空、银行业高管确认及零售销售数据支持）则权益资产比现金更具吸引力 [7][8] 经济数据矛盾 - 当前经济存在软数据（调查问卷走弱）与硬数据（实际经济指标稳健）的分化 特别是劳动力市场与零售销售数据表现强劲 [7] - 投资者需判断美联储是否落后于经济曲线 这将影响后续政策路径与资产价格走向 [7]

美联储利率决策 - 市场普遍预期美联储将进行25个基点的降息 [2] - 美联储此前已发出信号 表示降息在望但时机未到 [1] 劳动力市场状况 - 劳动力市场出现显著恶化 上月就业报告及大幅下修的数据均显示疲软 [2] - 劳动力市场疲软的时间比政策制定者此前理解的更长 市场正在放缓 [3] - 职位空缺数年来首次低于求职者人数 [3] - 黑人失业率急剧上升 这通常是劳动力市场进一步疲软的预兆 [4] 通胀与政策复杂性 - 通胀持续高企 为美联储放松货币政策以提振劳动力市场增加了复杂性 [4] - 关税政策推高了通胀 并使得美联储难以进行市场所倡导的降息 [4][16] 市场预期与利率影响 - 市场参与者开始担忧美联储无法控制通胀 这可能成为一个自我实现的预言 [5] - 对美联储独立性的担忧可能削弱其降低实际长期利率的能力 [5] - 收益率曲线显著变陡 短期借款成本与长期利率之间的差异缩小 [7] - 长期利率由市场对未来通胀的预期驱动 美联储降低长期利率的能力受到考验 [7][8] 消费者与价格影响 - 关税政策带来的不确定性使得投资决策困难 [13] - 关税对消费者价格的上涨影响存在滞后性 目前价格已开始上升 [12][15] - 尽管部分拥有股票和房产的美国人财富增加 但多数工薪阶层正受到劳动力市场疲软和物价上涨的双重挤压 [18][19] - 日用品杂货和住房成本在普通家庭预算中占很大比重 对工薪阶层影响显著 [19]

公司动态：软银集团与普华永道 - 穆迪将软银集团债务展望从稳定上调至正面，并确认其Ba3企业家族评级，理由是公司信用基本面改善，包括Arm控股成功上市以及市场价值杠杆率从一年前的41%降至约26% [3] - 软银集团强烈不同意穆迪的评级，表示自2020年3月以来未从该机构获得任何信用评级，认为此次评级属于未经请求，并正在探索所有可用选项，包括可能采取法律行动 [3] - 普华永道英国公司据报告削减约175个审计职位，并对员工实施较低的加薪幅度，此举措源于公司营收增长急剧放缓 [4] - 此前报告显示，普华永道在2024年底因其美国咨询、产品和技术业务的需求减弱，已裁减约1800个职位 [4] 德国政策动向 - 德国总理弗里德里希·默茨强调改革国家养老金体系的必要性，以应对人口结构变化和社会老龄化，预计到2036年将有1950万婴儿潮一代退休，而仅有1250万新劳动力进入市场 [5] - 改革提案包括鼓励私人储蓄、可能提高法定退休年龄以及不鼓励提前退休，以缓解未来劳动力短缺，但政府采取谨慎态度，在实施改革前咨询各委员会 [5] - 默茨宣布计划在未来几周访问跨大西洋地区以外的伙伴以达成新的贸易协议，旨在使贸易关系多元化并减少对少数市场的依赖 [6] - 默茨希望重振跨大西洋零关税自由贸易协定的谈判，并指出在南美、亚洲和非洲存在潜在合作机会 [6] 欧洲央行货币政策 - 欧洲央行副行长路易斯·德金多斯表示，央行在未来的利率决策上将“保持所有选项开放”，尽管认为当前利率水平是合适的，但鉴于复杂且不确定的全球经济环境，需要保持灵活的货币政策立场 [7][9] - 德金多斯指出存在“显著的服务业通胀减速”，但消费作为增长动力“尚未发生”，预计第二和第三季度增长将“几乎持平” [9] - 导致不确定性的因素包括全球经济波动、贸易紧张局势、人工智能的兴起以及地缘政治风险 [9]

Tokyo is one of the most densely populated cities in the world, while rural areas of Japan are suffering with ageing populations and declining birth rates.Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Wednesday, after Wall Street declined as investors awaited the key monetary policy decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, where it is expected to cut interest rates.Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index reversed losses from the start of the trading session to rise 0.17%, while the Topix index fell 0.4%.The ...

Let's start with Lisa Cook. She's involved in this Fed decision, and yet the president still seems to be trying to get her off the Fed. How is that happening and how might still some legal actions impact anything she does at this Fed meeting. Well, it doesn't look like anything's going to impact what she does at this Fed meeting because she's already there.And we have not heard that the White House has actually filed its appeal to the Supreme Court. So we're not expecting any immediate moves from the justic ...

Gold prices have indeed soared to all-time highs in 2025, prompting headlines about a historic rally. But according to Bank of America (BofA) Global Research, the story is more nuanced: The gold sector, while booming, hasn’t returned to all of the metrics that defined previous cyclical peaks, especially regarding its value relative to the broader equity market and its own historical valuations.This year, gold surged past major thresholds, as the traditional hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertai ...

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate cut this year on Wednesday despite signs of tariffs pushing inflation higher amid rising concerns about the labor market. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are expected to cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first since December 2024, which would lower the target range to 4% to 4.25%.Markets have priced in a cut, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 4% ...

技术分析 - 12月欧元期货价格呈现上涨趋势并创下两个月新高 多头占据明显短期技术优势 [1] - 价格突破1.1880阻力位将形成买入机会 上行目标价位为1.2250或更高 [3] - 技术支撑位位于上周低点1.1717 可作为设置保护性卖出止损的参考位 [3] 基本面因素 - 美联储可能转向更鸽派的货币政策 对欧元形成利好并利空美元 [2] - 欧盟经济整体保持稳定 而美国经济近期出现疲软迹象 进一步支撑欧元走强 [2] 交易策略 - 建议在价格走强时把握12月欧元期货买入机会 [1] - 明确设置1.2250上行目标价位与1.1717止损保护位 [3]

To help set up the trading day, we go as usual to Kevin Hanks, co-host of Fast Market. He is live at the CBOE. And of course, everybody is still talking about the Fed um and what the members are thinking and doing and the changing of the guard and the vulnerability of the Fed too.Um tell me a little bit about what as they be begin the meeting today and tomorrow we'll find the details. >> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, day one of the Fed meeting, you know, has got some headlines ba ba b b b b b b b b b b b b b ...

You often hear about the Federal Reserve when it comes to interest rates and monetary policy. After all, the central bank’s role in setting the federal funds rate has real effects on consumers and their money. But the Fed does more than just influence monetary policy — it also plays a key role in consumer protection. Learn more about how the Fed protects consumers through rulemaking, regulation, and more. 5 ways the Federal Reserve protects consumers The Federal Reserve, commonly referred to as “the Fe ...