The bigger story may be how regime change could impact oil production in the country. With Venezuela sitting on one of the world's largest oil reserves, miltary action would likely reverberate at global levels, impacting other countries' financial markets. The brewing Venezuela crisis represents just the kind of geopolitical risk that can shock markets. Active ETFs offer flexibility to adjust as needed, but, crucially, that flexibility is much more than a tool for shocks. Often, their ability to focus on co ...

We're joined on set by Rob Row. He is the head of global strategy at City Research right here at Post 9. Rob, >> glad to see somebody else working today.Really, really appreciate. >> We're all here on Boxing Day as they say in the UK. >> Yes, exactly.Um, you know, listen, lot there's a lot of tax law changes that are happening next year, both personally and on the corporate side as well. It's a little bit call it WBI, wonky, but important. How much of it all is that factoring into your outlook for next year ...

No Overhead Resistance, Only Reversal RiskWith no true resistance, let’s face it, the only fear for the bulls is a sudden reversal to the downside with better-than-average volume. We could still get this today, but if it occurs, it will be driven by low volume, which will set up the next “buy the dip” opportunity.The New Definition of a Dip in a Vertical Gold MarketAs we move higher and more vertical, the definition of dip is going to change. Sticking with a 50% correction of a price swing, our “dip” level ...

Michael Zakur. Did I say that correctly. Michael, thank you.F five new digital founder and author of the new retail. All right. Can we talk about this calendar thing.Did it matter at all this year. In your opinion, >> it did matter. Um it was it jumped out at me immediately in the summer, you know, when I'm planning my holiday rituals and uh what I'm doing for my own shopping and working with my clients.I said, "Oh my god, we're only going to have I think it was 27 days between right uh Thanksgiving and and ...

here for his take on rates and the Fed and his outlook for the year ahead. Let's bring in Kumar Sri Kumar, president of Sri Kumar Global Strategies. Thanks for joining us.>> Good to be here with you and Lesie. >> Thank you. >> Good to be >> I I think the thing that was most interesting this morning that we in the leadup here was what's happening with gold and silver.How do you put all of that in context. You seem to have stocks seem to be able to go up, stocks in general, but also you have this tremendous t ...

2025年末市场表现与2026年展望 - 2025年市场表现强劲，预计这一趋势将持续至年底 [1][2] - 市场强劲表现主要由人工智能领域驱动，尽管存在估值过高的担忧 [2] - 人工智能的基础设施建设及其后续发展尚未完全展开，预计将继续推动市场 [2] - 对2026年持谨慎态度，主要担忧通胀压力可能抬头 [3][4] - 通胀压力背景是消费者持续多年走弱 [3] - 2026年市场可能出现多种结果，通胀可能更受控制，但更担忧消费者和就业市场的强度 [4] 通胀与消费者状况分析 - 通胀可能在2027年制约市场估值倍数 [5] - 基于市场可能持平加上股息回报的预期进行投资，因应过去几年的强劲上涨 [5] - 消费者呈现明显的分化状态，即“K型经济” [6][7] - 高收入消费者消费畅旺，可能支撑了企业业绩 [6] - 低收入消费者正感受到压力，可能受关税影响 [6] - 整体就业市场并不强劲 [6] - 高收入消费者的支出在一定程度上与整体市场水平挂钩，若市场出现适度回调可能产生影响 [6] - 消费者积累了高额信用卡债务，达到长期未见水平 [7] - 即使2025年进一步降息，也不足以应对消费者累积债务的持有成本 [7] - 2025年消费者支出强劲，但预计2026年支出将趋于缓和 [7] 人工智能领域的投资机会 - 投资重点聚焦于人工智能基础设施领域 [8] - 认为人工智能无疑存在一定泡沫，但类似互联网泡沫，人工智能将成为生活的一部分并持续发展 [9] - 投入基础设施领域的资金并不像应用人工智能或其他市场细分领域那样定价过高 [9] - 云计算组件、芯片销售、制造和设计等整个市场环节的定价并非过高 [9] - 该领域的支出不那么依赖消费者，更多是企业基础设施决策，预计在2026年将持续 [9] 具体公司案例：Beldin - Beldin公司是自动化与机器人领域的投资选择，作为人工智能主题的一部分 [10] - 该公司总部位于圣路易斯，市值50亿美元 [10] - 受益于北美自动化支出，其三分之二的息税折旧摊销前利润和一半收入来自自动化领域 [11] - 正在进军数据中心解决方案和工业制造环境中的智能体人工智能领域 [11] - 估值具有吸引力，以2026年息税折旧摊销前利润计算约11-12倍，以收益计算约15.5倍 [11] - 相比其他交易倍数显著更高的标准自动化公司，该股有重新评级上升的空间 [11] - 基于13倍估值倍数和每股收益高两位数增长，预计两年后股价可能达到160美元 [11]

gold bitcoin, gold all time high, silver, gold prices,. Photo by BeInCrypto While the crypto community remained focused on the possibility of an altcoin season and fresh Bitcoin highs, a different narrative unfolded. By late 2025, what many analysts now describe as a “metal season” has taken shape. Precious metals and even base metals have outperformed cryptocurrencies this year. With analysts expecting this momentum to extend into next year, a key question emerges: could copper offer a more compelling be ...

All those marked-down smart home gadgets and Ralph Lauren socks under Christmas trees this year have already been regifted. To Uncle Sam. Commerce Department data released just before the holiday showed that US gross domestic product rose at an unexpectedly robust 4.3% in the third quarter, with the American consumer to thank for it. That might be enough to power one final miniature stock market rally to end 2025. SUBSCRIBE:  Receive more of our free The Daily Upside newsletter. READ ALSO: Video Game Con ...

As Americans reflect on 2025 in its final week, many retirees are calculating and stress-testing if they have enough to endure various financial situations. For those falling short, unretiring may be the best option.Over the past year, I've spoken to over 250 older Americans, most of whom still work. The majority said they never retired or unretired because of financial uncertainty. Some lived paycheck to paycheck with limited savings and no defined-benefit pension plan. Others had six figures in the bank b ...

涉及行业或公司 * 日本宏观经济 [1][4] * 日本央行 [4][5][7] * 日本政府及财政政策 [13][14][18] * 日本企业部门 [20][43][44] 核心观点和论据 * **经济增长**：预计日本2026年GDP增长+1.0%，高于趋势水平，但较2025年的+1.3%略有放缓，显示出韧性 [1][4][61] * **通胀与工资**：预计2026年核心CPI将从2025年的+3.1%大幅放缓至+1.7%，春季可能暂时降至约1.5% [22][61] 预计2026年春季工资谈判基本工资增幅约为3.0%至3.3%，支持因素包括劳动力短缺、企业利润稳固以及2025年通胀加速带来的工资指数化 [20] 随着食品和能源通胀放缓，消费者购买力可能恢复，实际工资有望在2026年初转为同比正增长 [6][38] * **货币政策**：预计日本央行将以每六个月一次的节奏加息，例如2026年7月、2027年1月和7月，终端政策利率可能达到+1.5% [5][9] 加息时机可能受汇率波动影响，若日元大幅走弱可能迫使央行提前行动，反之则可能推迟 [7][8] 服务通胀（日本央行关注的核心通胀组成部分）预计将小幅加速，从而支持加息 [23] * **财政政策**：财政空间受政府债务/GDP比率高企以及日本国债市场脱离量化宽松的制约，预计未来的财政刺激力度将保持温和 [4][13] 预计2026财年初始预算草案支出为121.1万亿日元，新发日本国债30.8万亿日元（2025财年初始预算分别为115.2万亿和28.6万亿日元）[13] 国防支出占GDP比重超过2%似乎不可避免，但在高债务和人口萎缩背景下能否达到北约水平仍是未知数 [18] * **经济活动和投资**：劳动力短缺推动的结构性需求（如省力化和数字化转型投资）将支撑企业投资保持坚挺 [43] 企业正在投资于产品和服务差异化以提升附加值，从而更容易将成本转嫁给价格 [10][44] 尽管有关税冲击，日本企业今年仍在增长领域积极投资以参与全球竞争 [43] * **外部需求**：人工智能相关需求帮助对亚洲（除中国外）的出口保持坚挺，弥补了汽车出口的停滞 [54] 日本承诺根据贸易协议向美国投资5500亿美元，这可能带来出口的上行风险 [55] 中日关系紧张对服务出口构成下行风险，若中国游客减少25%（类似2012年情况），可能拖累GDP增长0.1个百分点 [56] 其他重要内容 * **汇率风险**：汇率变动是日本央行加息时机的主要风险，过往加息历史也证明了这一点 [4][8] 与美国和欧洲不同，日本的财政扩张并未提振日元，市场对财政恶化的担忧可能超过对政府增长故事的期望 [14] * **政治与政策风险**：日本创新党若其核心政策（如第二首都愿景）在明年国会讨论中失败，其退出执政联盟的可能性将上升 [19] 若执政联盟失去众议院多数席位，高支持率的竹崎首相可能利用优势提前举行大选 [19] * **结构性变化**：无法跟上工资上涨的低生产率企业可能被迫退出市场，这可能促进劳动力向高生产率企业转移，从而提升未来潜在增长率 [9][20] 随着人口老龄化，家庭持有的金融资产已远超包括住房抵押贷款在内的金融债务，因此家庭整体可能更能承受加息，这可能导致中性利率上行 [40] * **CPI基期修订**：2026年将进行每五年一次的CPI基期修订（基年从2020年改为2025年），初步估计可能使核心CPI同比增幅下调0.2个百分点 [32][33] * **政府增长战略**：竹崎政府要求为包括人工智能/半导体、造船和量子计算在内的17个战略领域制定公私投资路线图 [14][16] 但国家资助的研发投资是否能真正提升潜在增长率尚无定论，安倍经济学时期的公私投资也尚未看到潜在增长的明显加速 [17]