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Teeter: Large cap tech and small caps both look compelling
Youtube· 2025-09-22 20:34
市场前景与催化剂 - 美联储降息以及未来更多降息的预期将延长经济周期 [1][2] - 企业盈利上一季度意外强劲 本季度预计将延续这一趋势 [2] - 市场长期主题包括利润率扩张 预计有较长的增长跑道 [2][3] - 科技、金融和通信服务板块目前均处于历史新高 [4] 板块配置与投资机会 - 大盘科技股具有估值支撑和利润率扩张潜力 基本面预计将继续推动大型成长股表现 [6] - 市场出现板块轮动迹象 罗素2000指数本季度回报率提升 涨势正蔓延至小盘股 [7] - 利率背景的改善逆转了此前对小盘股的不利因素 并购活动增加且小盘股同样受益于利润率增长 [7] 短期市场动态与风险 - 未来几周市场可能处于盘整状态 等待企业财报和下一次美联储会议 [3][11] - 短期需保持谨慎 估值处于高位 根据计算当前估值水平处于过去30年中的前8%左右 [10][11] - 未来几周处于信息真空期 主要催化剂(美联储政策和企业盈利)的新消息暂时缺失 [11] - 可能扰乱市场的风险包括通胀方面的意外上行或就业数据不及预期 [13]
Crypto Markets See $1.7B Liquidation Bloodbath, Longs Take $1.6B Hit
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-22 19:17
Crypto markets record historic liquidations. | Credit: Andrew Burton/Getty Images. Key Takeaways Over $1.6 billion was wiped out from long positions. Analysts predict a second Fed Reserve rate cut in October. September is historically the worst-performing month for crypto market returns. A gigantic $1.7 billion was liquidated from the crypto markets over the past 24 hours as macroeconomic factors and uncertainty forced an abrupt correction after weeks of upward momentum. Crypto Wipeout It’s been ...
Mortgage and refinance interest rates today for September 22, 2025: A gap between market and Fed expectations
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-22 18:00
当前抵押贷款利率水平 - 30年期固定抵押贷款利率为6.32% [1][4][7] - 15年期固定抵押贷款利率为5.70% [1][4][9] - 5/1可调利率抵押贷款(ARM)利率为6.84% [4][17] - 抵押贷款利率已降至6.5%以下,为近一年来首次 [2] 不同贷款期限的对比分析 - 30年期抵押贷款通过将还款期延长至360个月,使月供相对较低 [7] - 15年期抵押贷款利率低于30年期,但月供更高,总利息成本显著降低 [9] - 以30万美元贷款为例,30年期贷款月供约为2481美元,总利息支出为493,199美元 [8] - 相同贷款额15年期贷款月供跳升至3311美元,但总利息支出仅为195,969美元 [10] 可调利率抵押贷款(ARM)特点 - ARM初始利率在特定期限内锁定,之后定期调整,例如5/1 ARM前五年利率固定,之后每年调整一次 [11] - ARM初始利率通常低于固定利率,但存在锁定期结束后利率上升的风险 [12] - 近期ARM利率偶尔与固定利率相似或更高 [13] 影响抵押贷款利率的因素 - 市场预期与美联储预期之间存在差距,意味着抵押贷款利率仍存在上行压力风险 [2] - 2025年抵押贷款利率预计不会大幅下降,经济学家正密切关注通胀、关税和美联储动向 [19] 获取较低抵押贷款利率的策略 - 首付比例较高、信用评分优异、债务收入比较低的借款人通常能获得更低利率 [14] - 可通过在交易结束时购买折扣点来永久降低利率,或选择临时性利率买低方案 [15] - 选择利率买低方案时需权衡额外成本与长期节省的利息是否划算 [16]
Fed Musical Chairs: Who Will Succeed Jerome Powell?
Youtube· 2025-09-22 04:00
债券市场动态 - 10年期国债收益率从398个基点上升至413-414个基点 达到两周高点[1][2] - 长期债券收益率被认为过低 抵押贷款利率较周三下午上升约20个基点[12][13] - 商品交易顾问大量持有长期债券头寸 10年期期货价格约为112美元左右[11][12] 美联储政策预期 - 预计10月和12月将继续降息 但过度降息可能对长期利率和通胀不利[2][19] - 联邦基金利率可能降至3.25%-3.5% 预计最多再降息2-3次[19] - 美联储目前更关注就业状况 将通胀目标置于次要位置[14][16] 经济基本面分析 - 就业市场出现轻微恶化迹象 下周将公布失业金申请数据[13][15] - 移民劳动力减少和关税政策不确定性抑制企业招聘意愿[17] - 人工智能和核能等技术发展推动经济持续增长[18] 美联储领导层变动 - 特朗普政府可能任命Hasset为下一任美联储主席[7][8] - 现任主席Paul预计将完成任期以维护美联储独立性[8] - Myron被视为 outsider 可能不会留任[6][9] 股票市场观点 - 机构投资者超配股票达28% 市场已处于泡沫状态[21] - 建议10月第二周前避开股市 尽管可能错过最后1-2%涨幅[21][22]
How Fed rate cuts impact your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments
Youtube· 2025-09-22 00:39
美联储降息对银行账户的影响 - 银行根据市场竞争和存款需求等因素设定支票和储蓄账户利率 但总体上跟随联邦基金利率变动[2] - 本次25个基点的温和降息不会导致利率剧烈变化 目前最优储蓄账户利率维持在4%年收益率左右[3] - 预计储蓄账户利率将随降息出现下调 高收益率账户供给可能减少[3] 对定期存款产品的影响 - 定期存款利率与联邦基金利率挂钩 本次降息将导致其利率水平下降[4] - 定期存款允许在整个期限内锁定 guaranteed利率 期限选择包括6个月至2年[5] - 在利率下降周期中 通过定期存款锁定当前较高利率是有效的储蓄策略[5] 对个人贷款市场的影响 - 个人贷款是较实惠的融资选择 近年来平均利率维持在12%左右[6] - 本次降息预计将使个人贷款利率小幅下降[6] - 贷款利率与申请人信用评级密切相关 优质客户可获得高个位数利率[7] 对信用卡债务的影响 - 信用卡利率与最优惠利率挂钩 而最优惠利率直接关联联邦基金利率[8] - 当前信用卡平均利率高达21%-22% 属于最昂贵的借贷方式之一[9] - 即使利率小幅下降 仍建议通过个人贷款或0%余额转移卡进行债务整合[9] 对投资市场的影响 - 降息通常利好股市 企业融资成本降低有利于日常运营和业务扩张[10][11] - 预计短期内投资价值将出现上涨[11] - 投资决策应基于投资组合分散度 时间跨度和风险承受能力 而非短期利率变动[12]
Wheat Joins in on the Selling on Friday
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-20 01:00
The wheat complex is continuing the weaker trade across the three markets on Friday. CBT soft red wheat futures are trading with 3 to 4 cent losses. KC HRW futures are down 4 to 5 cents. MPLS spring wheat futures are showing fractional to a penny losses at midday The US dollar index continues to bounce following the Fed rate cut, as it is up another $0.304 to $97.275. More News from Barchart The weekly Export Sales report showed accumulated sales (shipped and unshipped) at 13.156 MMT, which is 20% large ...
Stock Indexes Rally to Record Highs on Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Nasdaq· 2025-09-19 06:38
主要股指表现 - 标普500指数上涨0.48% 纳斯达克100指数上涨0.95% 道琼斯工业指数上涨0.27% 三大指数均创历史新高[1][2] - 九月E-mini标普期货上涨0.50% E-mini纳斯达克期货上涨0.92%[1] 半导体行业动态 - 英特尔股价大涨超过22% 英伟达同意投资50亿美元并宣布将共同开发PC和数据中心芯片[2][12] - KLA Corp上涨超过6% ASML Holding NV上涨超过6% Applied Materials上涨超过6%[12] - 美光科技上涨超过5% Marvell Technology上涨超过5% ON Semiconductor上涨超过4%[12] - 英伟达股价上涨超过3% GlobalFoundries上涨超过2% NXP Semiconductors NV上涨超过2%[12] - ARM Holdings下跌超过4% 因英伟达投资英特尔的消息影响[17] 宏观经济数据 - 每周初请失业金人数下降33,000人至231,000人 低于预期的240,000人[5] - 九月费城联储商业展望调查上升23.5点至23.2 创8个月新高 远高于预期的1.7[5] - 八月领先指标下降0.5% 差于预期的下降0.2% 为四个月最大降幅[6] - 10年期国债收益率上升1.4个基点至4.101% 创两周新高[7] 个股表现 - CrowdStrike上涨超过12% 公司在投资者简报中讨论AI战略并给出2027财年初步展望[13] - 89bio上涨超过85% 罗氏宣布以35亿美元收购公司 每股收购价14.50美元[13] - AeroVironment上涨超过4% 美国银行首次覆盖给予买入评级 目标价300美元[13] - Allstate上涨超过4% 报告八月灾难损失1.68亿美元 环比下降8.7%[14] - Cooper Cos上涨超过4% 董事会批准增加10亿美元股票回购计划至20亿美元[14] - CSX Corp上涨超过2% RBC资本市场将评级从行业表现上调至跑赢大盘 目标价39美元[14] - FactSet Research Systems下跌超过10% 第四季度调整后EPS为4.05美元低于预期的4.15美元[15] - Red Cat下跌超过10% 宣布计划通过承销公开发行出售普通股[16] - Darden Restaurants下跌超过7% 预测2026年调整后EPS为10.50-10.70美元 中点低于预期的10.67美元[16] - Cracker Barrel下跌超过7% 预测2025年收入33.5-34.5亿美元 低于预期的35.2亿美元[17] - Nucor下跌超过5% 预测第三季度EPS为2.05-2.15美元 远低于预期的2.59美元[17] - Live Nation Entertainment下跌超过2% 遭美国联邦贸易委员会和七个州起诉[18] 央行政策与利率 - 市场定价显示94%概率美联储在10月28-29日FOMC会议上降息25个基点[6] - 英国央行以7-2投票维持官方银行利率在4.00%不变[11] - 掉期市场定价显示ECB在10月30日政策会议上降息25个基点的概率为2%[11] - 10年期德国国债收益率上升5.1个基点至2.726% 创两周新高[10] - 10年期英国国债收益率上升5.1个基点至4.676% 创1.5周新高[10] 国际市场表现 - 欧洲斯托克50指数上涨1.62% 创3.5周新高[6] - 中国上证综指下跌1.15% 从10年高点回落[6] - 日经225指数上涨1.15% 创历史新高[6]
'Fast Money' traders talk markets hitting new record highs including the Russell 2000
Youtube· 2025-09-19 06:05
We're going to start with a slate of all-time highs on Wall Street. Now, the major averages hit record highs. That's happening almost every day.Investors digesting yesterday's Fed rate cut. Earnings still look good, blah blah blah. The NASDAQ up about a percent, but it was the small cap Russell 2000 leading to gains.It rose more than two and a half%. And you may not know this, but the index setting its first record close since November of 2021. Interestingly though, rates actually were up.The benchmark 10-y ...
Equities should do very well after Fed rate cut if no recession occurs, says Wells Fargo's Cronk
Youtube· 2025-09-19 02:08
Strategists, meanwhile, uh rejiggering their year-end S&P targets amid those new record highs and the Fed easing cycle. Uh that is now begun. Uh our next guest is no exception, raising his year-end target to between 66 and 6,800.Also saying though he expects volatility to increase some. Joining us now is Daryl Kron, chief investment officer uh for wealth and investment management at Wells Fargo. Daryl, uh good to see you.Um, obviously the market it kind of got what it both expected and was hoping for, right ...
Jeremy Siegel: All the negatives from tariffs are more than offset by the positives in the markets
Youtube· 2025-09-18 19:26
The Fed did cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected and suggesting two more cuts would come by the end of the year. That was kind of the the median consensus call among the committee. Joining us now, Jeremy Seagull, chief economist at Wisdom Tree and Professor Emeritus of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.Uh Jeremy, it's good to have you this morning. I I guess we can uh you know, if you if you want to just follow the market's verdict, you often don't get a clean ...