再融资需求激增 - 抵押贷款再融资申请量上周环比增长58% 较去年同期水平增长70% [1] - 可调整利率抵押贷款再融资活动占比升至12.9% 创2008年以来最高纪录 [2] 利率走势分析 - 30年期固定抵押利率下降15个基点至6.35% 创一年来最大单周跌幅 [4] - 5/1年可调整抵押利率降至5.7% 10年期国债收益率从4.8%峰值回落至4.02% [3][4] 市场活动回暖 - 抵押贷款总申请量增长9.2% 创2022年以来最强单周需求表现 [8] - 住房市场显现转折信号 预计抵押利率年底将降至6.25% [9] 驱动因素分析 - 美联储9月政策会议预期降息直接冲击短期借款成本 [3] - 长期利率同步下行 投资者预期借贷成本将在更长时间内保持宽松 [3]

Kevin Simpson, Capital Wealth Planning founder and CIO, said in a recent program on CNBC that he’s buying Home Depot (NYSE:HD) amid expectations of a rate cut. The analyst sees a new cycle of home renovation coming in the US. “I think it’s just as pure as a lower rate environment because if you think about the retail consumer, we’ve been waiting since the pandemic for massive upgrades—appliances, wall coverings, floor coverings. But it’s not just the retail consumer. If you think about it a little bit fur ...

(Reuters) -The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan dropped last week to its lowest in a year, sending homeowners racing to lock in cheaper borrowing costs as slowing jobs growth and expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut drive down yields on benchmark Treasuries. The Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday said the contract rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped 10 basis points in the week ended September 12 to 6.39%. That was the lowest since early October 2024, and ...

| | | COMEX黄金 | | COMEX白银 | Nymex铂金 | | Nymex把金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至9月9日) | 발 | 跟上周比较 | 딸 | 跟上周比较 | 目 | 跟上周比较 | 世 | 跟上周比较 | | 管理资金的净多头量 | 518 | -1.5% | 5,874 | -7.9% | 21 | -26. 0% | -18 | +9. 0% | | 多头量 | 620 | -1.2% | 7, 864 | -4. 8% | રત | -16. 5% | 16 | +18. 6% | | 空头量 | 102 | -0. 1% | 1.991 | +5. 8% | 39 | +2. 9% | 34 | +2. 4% | 李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后 ...

黄金价格走势 - 9月17日亚市早盘现货黄金高位震荡后短线下挫 一度跌破3680美元关口 [1] - 9月16日黄金价格首次突破3700美元后短线跳水 最终收涨0.30%至3689.83美元/盎司 [1][3] - 技术分析显示日线及H4周期支撑位位于3685和3675美元 上方目标看至3710美元 若继续走高可能触及3750美元 [5] 美元指数表现 - 9月16日美元指数下跌0.74%至96.54 创7月1日以来新低 [3] - 美元兑欧元跌至2021年9月以来最低水平 单日跌幅达0.9% [3] - 美元走软使以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者更具吸引力 扩大全球买盘需求 [3] 美联储政策预期 - 芝商所FedWatch工具显示交易员完全定价9月17日美联储降息25个基点 另有约4%概率押注降息50个基点 [3] - 低利率环境降低黄金持有机会成本 实际利率下行刺激资金持续流入黄金市场 [4] - 分析师指出本轮金价上涨主要推手是市场对美联储激进降息的定价 [4] 经济数据与市场情绪 - 美国8月零售销售环比增长0.6% 高于预期的0.2% 显示消费者支出意愿顽强 [3] - 独立金属交易员认为美元大幅贬值推动金价飙升 但美联储决议前市场情绪谨慎 部分获利了结行为抑制涨幅 [3] - 美元疲软反映市场对美国经济前景担忧 劳动力市场疲软和关税导致的通胀压力削弱美元信用 [3] 技术走势预判 - 预计美联储降息25个基点后可能出现"卖预期买事实"行情 黄金或因预期走完而出现反向下跌 [5] - 历史表现显示降息落地后黄金可能走出较大下跌空间 下方关键支撑位关注3620美元 [5] - 尽管短期可能调整 但在地缘局势影响下今年黄金大趋势保持多头不变 [5]

now and get to Peter Tuckman who is the senior floor broker at Trademass. Thank you so much for joining us. Absolute pleasure.I'm glad to be here. All right, so we did start off with a record highs and then we sort of erased those gains and we're on the back foot as we closed out the session ahead of this very important meeting tomorrow. What happened.Just a bit of money coming off sitting on sidelines. Yeah, it was kind of drifted just in the absence of the gas on the pedal, it's just going to pull back a ...

Let's start with Lisa Cook. She's involved in this Fed decision, and yet the president still seems to be trying to get her off the Fed. How is that happening and how might still some legal actions impact anything she does at this Fed meeting. Well, it doesn't look like anything's going to impact what she does at this Fed meeting because she's already there.And we have not heard that the White House has actually filed its appeal to the Supreme Court. So we're not expecting any immediate moves from the justic ...

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate cut this year on Wednesday despite signs of tariffs pushing inflation higher amid rising concerns about the labor market. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are expected to cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first since December 2024, which would lower the target range to 4% to 4.25%.Markets have priced in a cut, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 4% ...

市场资金流向 - 美国现货比特币和以太坊交易所交易基金单日净流入6.1973亿美元 资金主要受美联储预期降息推动[1] - 以太坊交易所交易基金9月15日单日净流入3.5973亿美元 实现连续五日净流入 累计总额达10.9亿美元[2][4] - 比特币交易所交易基金9月15日单日净流入2.6002亿美元 实现连续五日净流入 累计总额超26亿美元[5] 资产规模数据 - 美国现货比特币交易所交易基金总净资产达1517.2亿美元 相当于比特币市值6.6%[3] - 以太坊交易所交易基金总净资产为297.2亿美元 占以太坊市值5.46%[3] 历史资金流动趋势 - 7月比特币和以太坊交易所交易基金实现历史性净流入54.3亿美元 8月继续保持38.7亿美元净流入[4] - 比特币交易所交易基金7月净流入60.2亿美元 但8月出现7.5112亿美元净流出[6] - 9月第一周出现7.8774亿美元周度净流出 但目前损失已被完全抵消[4] 加密货币市场表现 - 加密货币总市值过去30天上涨0.5% 达到4.01万亿美元[7] - 比特币过去一周交易价格上涨至115,405美元 以太坊同期上涨3.87%至4,501美元[8] 政策预期影响 - 市场预期美联储将于2025年9月17日宣布降息决定 推动近期市场反弹[1][3][6]

美元指数表现及影响因素 - 美元指数下跌0.42%至2.25个月低点 因市场预期美联储将在本周会议降息25个基点且年底前持续宽松[1] - 美元抛压部分受零售销售数据强劲缓冲 8月零售销售环比增长0.6%超预期0.2% 剔除汽车后增长0.7%超预期0.4%[1][3] - 制造业生产意外环比增长0.2% 市场预期为下降0.2% 进口价格指数剔除石油后环比增长0.2%超预期0.1%[1][3] 美联储政策预期 - 市场定价本周FOMC会议降息25基点概率达100% 降息50基点概率为5%[5] - 预计10月会议再次降息25基点概率为84% 年底前联邦基金利率累计下降69基点至3.64%[5] - 政治因素影响美联储独立性 特朗普试图解雇理事库克及官员双重任职问题引发外资抛售美元资产担忧[2] 欧元汇率走势 - 欧元兑美元上涨0.69%至4年新高 受美元走弱及央行政策分化推动[6] - 市场认为欧洲央行基本结束降息周期 而美联储预计年内降息约三次[6] - 欧央行理事西姆库斯鹰派言论强化汇率支撑 称已接近降息周期尾声[6] 经济数据表现 - 美国9月NAHB住房市场指数维持在32 处于2.75年低点且低于预期值33[4] - 欧元区Q2劳动力成本环比上升 德国9月ZEW经济预期意外改善[7] - 欧元区7月工业产出增速低于预期 对欧元形成部分压制[7]