BlackRock shifted its tactical view of long-term Treasurys but said the macroeconomic backdrop is "murky.†...

Our next guest has been calling for 100 basis points of cuts this year for months, long before we saw a downturn in the official jobs data. So what is he looking for this week and how should investors position. With us is Barry Knap, Ironside's macroeconomics director of research.Barry, it's great to see you. >> Good to see you again, Mike. >> So it's it's an interesting take that you have here that in other words, 100 basis points is warranted.I guess you would also say perhaps overdue. Uh, at the same tim ...

Stocks should extend their record-setting rally deep into next year, fueled by a series of Fed rate cuts that—by most accounts—will begin this week. ...

**行业与公司** * 研究聚焦美国股票策略 分析美联储降息对不同市场板块的影响[1] * 覆盖标普1500指数成分股 包括标普500大型股 标普400中型股和标普600小型股[47] * 重点分析行业包括房地产 公用事业 信息技术 非必需消费品 医疗保健 能源 金融 工业 材料和通信服务等[17][23][26] **核心观点与论据** * 美联储降息预期强烈 市场共识预计未来将进行4次25个基点的降息[2] * 降息受益者取决于三个条件：两年期国债收益率变化（-50基点） 收益率曲线陡峭化（2s10s利差扩大）以及经济数据方向（花旗经济数据变化指数正负）[15] * 在传统分析中 房地产和公用事业板块因高负债和债券替代特性而表现突出 而能源和信息技术板块表现落后[17] * 在曲线陡峭且经济数据积极的场景下 房地产 非必需消费品和信息技术成为赢家 公用事业表现不佳 SMID（中小盘股）显著受益[23] * 在曲线陡峭但经济数据消极的场景下 公用事业 房地产 医疗保健和必需消费品等传统防御性板块表现更好 信息技术 非必需消费品 金融 工业 材料和能源板块表现落后[26] * 花旗核心观点认为 在缓慢但积极的经济轨迹下 应超配成长股 SMID为最终的周期性暴露提供增量杠杆 即同时持有高贝塔成长股和周期性股票[6][14] * 若经济恶化 投资应转向传统防御性和低贝塔板块 SMID交易被推迟[6][14] **其他重要内容** * 分析方法采用两年回溯期 以避免主要衰退期美联储行动的长期影响 更能反映近期经济波动中的股票反应[5][11] * 提供了行业中性的股票筛选 列出了每个行业中对降息最敏感和最不敏感的前10只股票（附录图13-16）[37] * 在最敏感股票组合的基本面中 积极经济场景下的组合显示更高的预期盈利增长（2年复合年增长率14.2% vs 8.6%）和更高的贝塔（1.16 vs 0.79）但质量较低（ROE 10.7% vs 16.3%）[43] * 消极经济场景下的敏感组合则增长较慢（2年复合年增长率6.9% vs 18.3%）但质量较好（ROE 14.6% vs 9.5%）且贝塔较低（0.73 vs 1.28）[44] * 在规模与风格暴露上 积极经济场景下最敏感组合明显超配SMID（78% vs 59%父指数）尤其是价值股（46% vs 38%）[48] * 报告包含了大量的利益冲突披露 显示花旗与许多被分析公司存在投资银行业务关系 自营头寸和其他财务利益[60][68][69]

On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026. Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encour ...

Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New YorkReuters The stock market faces two risks that could cause its record rally to stumble, Goldman Sachs said. The bank pointed to the risk that markets begin to worry about a recession again. Alternatively, investors could start to pull back expectations for Fed rate cuts, blunting a bullish tailwind. Earnings are strong. The US economy is holding steady. Fed rate cuts are coming. Nothing looks like it could go wrong in the stock market now. That, at ...

Clearly, corporate America is expecting Fed cuts here, and it seems like we're all but certain we're going to see 25 basis points next Wednesday. But it's all about the messaging, isn't it. What tone do you expect that Jerome Powell will actually take at the press conference.I think he can get a good idea on the tone about the way they signaled the policy action. Chair Powell essentially told us that they would ease at his speech in Jackson Hole, but he wasn't really that explicit. Why.Because probably he h ...

Strategists from Kraken and CF Benchmarks suggest that a recent, historic US labor market downturn may give the Federal Reserve enough reason to lower interest rates. Moving toward monetary easing could create a positive environment for assets like Bitcoin . During a monthly strategy call on Sept. 12, analysts pointed to the most considerable negative revision to US jobs data in 26 years. According to the institutional report from Kraken, the revision was more severe than what was observed during the 20 ...

The initial public offerings (IPOs) market started gaining momentum in 2024. There were 150 IPOs in the U.S. market in 2024, raising $29.6 billion, per a Renaissance Capital article. However, in spite of a more than 50% increase in proceeds compared to 2023, deal flow was still tepid by historical standards, the article indicated.However, the year 2025 has shown signs of a rebound. The market is now set to recommence in the fall as the initial phase of the year was marred by tariff-led worries, per another ...

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