市场表现与宏观经济背离 - 股票市场持续创下新高纪录，比特币价格亦大幅飙升 [1] - 作为传统避险资产的黄金价格在年内大幅上涨近50%，而投资者正在抛售美元 [1] - 尽管存在政府停摆等负面因素，但市场表现依然强劲，反映出市场情绪与经济数据之间的脱节 [1][2][3] 经济结构分化现象 - 美国经济呈现二元分化格局：一是依赖工资收入的普通民众经济，二是受资本流动驱动的股票市场经济 [3][4] - 收入最高的20%人群占据了美国消费者支出的一半以上，其投资行为主要受利率和技术突破影响，对普通工薪阶层的财务困境不敏感 [5] - 富裕阶层的资本持续流入股票、私募市场、风险投资等资产类别，推动指数上行，形成与实体经济表现背离的反馈循环 [6] 信息环境与市场驱动因素 - 政府停摆导致关键的就业、通胀、贸易和住房数据发布中断，造成公开信息缺失 [7] - 大型金融机构依赖自有的数据渠道（如信用卡消费追踪器、卫星航运数据）进行决策，公开数据缺失对其影响有限 [8] - 在“无就业扩张”和人工智能技术突破的背景下，企业利润率可能正在扩大，这进一步支撑了市场表现 [8]

Stocks keep hitting record highs — and the Federal Reserve just gave them another reason to climb. The central bank cut rates by a quarter point on Wednesday and signaled two more reductions are likely by year-end, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell calling it a "risk management" move to cushion a softening labor market. That backdrop has only reinforced Wall Street's conviction that the rally isn't over. "Fed rate cuts near market highs have historically led to further gains, though not in a linear fashion," ...

Wall Street fund managers are piling back into equities, even as the economic backdrop turns shakier. Bank of America's latest Global Fund Manager Survey, released Tuesday, showed global equity allocations for September rose to a seven-month high while average cash balances held steady at just 3.9% for the third straight month — a level that often signals caution as investors run short on dry powder. Still, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett noted sentiment hasn't tipped into full-blown euphoria. That woul ...

The S&P 500 closed at 6,615 on Monday, yet another record high, as investors bet the Federal Reserve is about to start cutting interest rates . The rally has Wall Street racing to catch up, with analysts hiking their year-end forecasts. Some stock market bulls now see the index breaking 7,000 before December. That would mean a roughly 6% rise over the next 76 days, and on the face of it, that’s not exactly a feverish climb. But considering the market is already sitting at record highs, a 6% move higher is ...