货币政策立场 - 美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼表示通胀水平已接近央行目标 [1] - 当前通胀状况为更多降息提供了依据 [1]

Nigel Farage and Richard Tice met with the Bank of England Governor - Tolga Akmen/Shutterstock Reform UK will urge Rachel Reeves to overhaul the Bank of England’s money-printing programme to gain a £20bn lifeline ahead of the Budget. Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, is writing to Ms Reeves and the leader of the House of Commons to request an urgent debate on the issue following a meeting with Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s Governor, on Thursday. The party claims the Treasury could save billions by cha ...

SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's central bank projected on Thursday that inflation will hover near the official goal in the first quarter of 2028, but still fail to meet it, according to the bank's latest quarterly monetary policy report. After projecting earlier this month annual inflation at 3.4% for the first quarter of 2027, the relevant horizon for policy decisions, policymakers unveiled a 3.1% forecast for the first quarter of 2028, the final period covered by the report. The bank targets inflation ...

New Zealand's first foreign central bank governor in modern history takes the top job amid heightened criticism of the bank's management of the economy and as independent monetary policy around the world comes under political pressure. ...

By Lucy Craymer WELLINGTON (Reuters) -New Zealand on Wednesday named Swedish national Anna Breman as its new central bank governor, the first woman in the role who joins following a major shakeup at the bank amid criticism over its management of the economy. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said Breman, currently the First Deputy Governor of Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, will take up her role at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on December 1. "Dr Breman comes to New Zealand with an impressi ...

SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's central bank said on Tuesday that it has entered a "new stage" in which policymakers opt to keep interest rates unchanged while evaluating whether the current level is enough to ensure inflation converges to its 3% target. In the minutes from its latest meeting, where it held the benchmark Selic rate at a near two-decade high of 15% for the second consecutive time, the bank said that policymakers would not hesitate to resume a hiking cycle if deemed appropriate. The rate-set ...

Sweden's central bank reduced its key policy rate to 1.75% and suggested the cut could mark the final monetary easing of the current cycle. ...

美联储利率政策路径 - 美联储在2024年9月将联邦基金利率下调50个基点 随后在11月和12月各下调25个基点 之后因就业数据稳固且通胀持续高于2%的目标而维持利率不变 直至今年9月17日再次下调政策利率25个基点 [2] - 美联储主席鲍威尔表示 利率政策并非预设路线 将依据后续经济数据做出决策 [1] - 美联储最新的经济预测摘要显示 其倾向于在2025年和2026年进一步降息 尽管存在反对降息的强烈理由 但近期的就业疲软也为降息提供了合理依据 [16] 影响政策决策的关键因素 - 就业和通胀数据是影响美联储决策的两个核心因素 政治因素也可能产生影响 尽管在官方会议上可能不会公开讨论 [3] - 在人口增长放缓的背景下 就业数据的解读变得复杂 移民政策的变化导致人口结构不稳定 使得月度新增就业数据的意义难以判断 例如月度增长5万可能很好也可能很糟 取决于移民情况 而该数据存在滞后性和不准确性 [4][5][6] - 通胀数据受到基础通胀压力和关税的双重影响 目前关税对整体通胀影响不大 但近期总通胀恶化 美联储倾向于忽略关税驱动的价格上涨 视其为一次性因素 [9] 政治对美联储的潜在影响 - 总统特朗普明确希望降低利率 其最新任命的美联储理事Stephen Miran在最近的会议上因支持降息50个基点而投票反对25个基点的降息 [11] - 存在一种高度政治化的可能性 即总统通过任命支持其议程的理事来控制联邦公开市场委员会 FOMC 的多数席位 但这需要高度忠诚的任命人选并能获得参议院确认 [15] - 联邦储备银行行长的五年任期均于2026年2月到期 且他们是"随意"雇员 可由美联储理事会免职 这为政治干预提供了潜在途径 [14] 联邦公开市场委员会决策机制 - 利率决策由FOMC做出 该委员会由7名美联储理事会成员和12名地区联邦储备银行行长组成 其中只有4名行长拥有投票权 纽约联储行长始终拥有投票权 其他行长轮流担任投票成员 所有行长均参与讨论 [12] - 美联储理事由总统任命并经参议院确认 任期14年 地区联邦储备银行行长由各自银行的董事会选拔 但需经美联储理事会确认 [13]

I'm not attempting to provide an impossible degree of precision, but a general ballpark. Based on this analysis, I believe the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid 2% area, almost two percentage points lower than current policy. The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses.And I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2%. However, leading policy restrictive by such a large degree brings s ...

Stephen Miran, Donald Trump’s new appointee on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting board, has doubled down on his calls for the central bank to more aggressively cut interest rates.Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point, bringing rates down to a range of 4% to 4.25% – the lowest it’s been since early 2023. Out of 12 voting board members, Miran was the only one to vote against the crowd. He wanted a half-point cut, not a quarter-point cut.Miran told the Economics Club of New York th ...